Tongwen Wu

Carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth System Models

AbstractThe magnitude and evolution of parameters that characterize feedbacks in the coupled carbon–climate system are compared across nine Earth system models (ESMs). The analysis is based on results from biogeochemically, radiatively, and fully coupled simulations in which CO2 increases at a rate of 1% yr−1. These simulations are part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The CO2 fluxes between the atmosphere and underlying land and ocean respond to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and to changes in temperature and other climate variables. The carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedback parameters characterize the response of the CO2 flux between the atmosphere and the underlying surface to these changes. Feedback parameters are calculated using two different approaches. The two approaches are equivalent and either may be used to calculate the contribution of the feedback terms to diagnosed cumulative emissions. The contribution of carbon–concentration feedback to...

The Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model: description and its performance for the present-day climate

The Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model version 2.0.1 (BCC_AGCM2.0.1) is described and its performance in simulating the present-day climate is assessed. BCC_AGCM2.0.1 originates from the community atmospheric model version 3 (CAM3) developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The dynamics in BCC_AGCM2.0.1 is, however, substantially different from the Eulerian spectral formulation of the dynamical equations in CAM3, and several new physical parameterizations have replaced the corresponding original ones. The major modification of the model physics in BCC_AGCM2.0.1 includes a new convection scheme, a dry adiabatic adjustment scheme in which potential temperature is conserved, a modified scheme to calculate the sensible heat and moisture fluxes over the open ocean which takes into account the effect of ocean waves on the latent and sensible heat fluxes, and an empirical equation to compute the snow cover fraction. Specially, the new convection scheme in BCC_AGCM2.0.1, which is generated from the Zhang and McFarlane’s scheme but modified, is tested to have significant improvement in tropical maximum but also the subtropical minimum precipitation, and the modified scheme for turbulent fluxes are validated using EPIC2001 in situ observations and show a large improvement than its original scheme in CAM3. BCC_AGCM2.0.1 is forced by observed monthly varying sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations during 1949–2000. The model climatology is compiled for the period 1971–2000 and compared with the ERA-40 reanalysis products. The model performance is evaluated in terms of energy budgets, precipitation, sea level pressure, air temperature, geopotential height, and atmospheric circulation, as well as their seasonal variations. Results show that BCC_AGCM2.0.1 reproduces fairly well the present-day climate. The combined effect of the new dynamical core and the updated physical parameterizations in BCC_AGCM2.0.1 leads to an overall improvement, compared to the original CAM3.

The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system model, Spectral Version 2: FGOALS-s2

The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Spectral Version 2 (FGOALS-s2) was used to simulate realistic climates and to study anthropogenic influences on climate change. Specifically, the FGOALS-s2 was integrated with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to conduct coordinated experiments that will provide valuable scientific information to climate research communities. The performances of FGOALS-s2 were assessed in simulating major climate phenomena, and documented both the strengths and weaknesses of the model. The results indicate that FGOALS-s2 successfully overcomes climate drift, and realistically models global and regional climate characteristics, including SST, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation. In particular, the model accurately captures annual and semi-annual SST cycles in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the main characteristic features of the Asian summer monsoon, which include a low-level southwestern jet and five monsoon rainfall centers. The simulated climate variability was further examined in terms of teleconnections, leading modes of global SST (namely, ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO), and changes in 19th–20th century climate. The analysis demonstrates that FGOALS-s2 realistically simulates extra-tropical teleconnection patterns of large-scale climate, and irregular ENSO periods. The model gives fairly reasonable reconstructions of spatial patterns of PDO and global monsoon changes in the 20th century. However, because the indirect effects of aerosols are not included in the model, the simulated global temperature change during the period 1850–2005 is greater than the observed warming, by 0.6°C. Some other shortcomings of the model are also noted.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Exploring key model physics in climate simulations

Aimed at reducing deficiencies in representing the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in general circulation models (GCMs), a global model evaluation project on vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO was coordinated. In this paper, results from the climate simulation component of this project are reported. It is shown that the MJO remains a great challenge in these latest generation GCMs. The systematic eastward propagation of the MJO is only well simulated in about one fourth of the total participating models. The observed vertical westward tilt with altitude of the MJO is well simulated in good MJO models but not in the poor ones. Damped Kelvin wave responses to the east of convection in the lower troposphere could be responsible for the missing MJO preconditioning process in these poor MJO models. Several process-oriented diagnostics were conducted to discriminate key processes for realistic MJO simulations. While large-scale rainfall partition and low-level mean zonal winds over the Indo-Pacific in a model are not found to be closely associated with its MJO skill, two metrics, including the low-level relative humidity difference between high- and low-rain events and seasonal mean gross moist stability, exhibit statistically significant correlations with the MJO performance. It is further indicated that increased cloud-radiative feedback tends to be associated with reduced amplitude of intraseasonal variability, which is incompatible with the radiative instability theory previously proposed for the MJO. Results in this study confirm that inclusion of air-sea interaction can lead to significant improvement in simulating the MJO.

Biotic and Human Vulnerability to Projected Changes in Ocean Biogeochemistry over the 21st Century

Mora and colleagues show that ongoing greenhouse gas emissions are likely to have a considerable effect on several biogeochemical properties of the worlds oceans, with potentially serious consequences for biodiversity and human welfare.

A mass-flux cumulus parameterization scheme for large-scale models: description and test with observations

A simple mass-flux cumulus parameterization scheme suitable for large-scale atmospheric models is presented. The scheme is based on a bulk-cloud approach and has the following properties: (1) Deep convection is launched at the level of maximum moist static energy above the top of the boundary layer. It is triggered if there is positive convective available potential energy (CAPE) and relative humidity of the air at the lifting level of convection cloud is greater than 75%; (2) Convective updrafts for mass, dry static energy, moisture, cloud liquid water and momentum are parameterized by a one-dimensional entrainment/detrainment bulk-cloud model. The lateral entrainment of the environmental air into the unstable ascending parcel before it rises to the lifting condensation level is considered. The entrainment/detrainment amount for the updraft cloud parcel is separately determined according to the increase/decrease of updraft parcel mass with altitude, and the mass change for the adiabatic ascent cloud parcel with altitude is derived from a total energy conservation equation of the whole adiabatic system in which involves the updraft cloud parcel and the environment; (3) The convective downdraft is assumed saturated and originated from the level of minimum environmental saturated equivalent potential temperature within the updraft cloud; (4) The mass flux at the base of convective cloud is determined by a closure scheme suggested by Zhang (J Geophys Res 107(D14), doi:10.1029/2001JD001005, 2002) in which the increase/decrease of CAPE due to changes of the thermodynamic states in the free troposphere resulting from convection approximately balances the decrease/increase resulting from large-scale processes. Evaluation of the proposed convection scheme is performed by using a single column model (SCM) forced by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program’s (ARM) summer 1995 and 1997 Intensive Observing Period (IOP) observations, and field observations from the Global Atmospheric Research Program’s Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) and the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE). The SCM can generally capture the convective events and produce a realistic timing of most events of intense precipitation although there are some biases in the strength of simulated precipitation.

The Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S) Project Database

AbstractDemands are growing rapidly in the operational prediction and applications communities for forecasts that fill the gap between medium-range weather and long-range or seasonal forecasts. Based on the potential for improved forecast skill at the subseasonal to seasonal time range, the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction research project has been established by the World Weather Research Programme/World Climate Research Programme. A main deliverable of this project is the establishment of an extensive database containing subseasonal (up to 60 days) forecasts, 3 weeks behind real time, and reforecasts from 11 operational centers, modeled in part on the The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) database for medium-range forecasts (up to 15 days).The S2S database, available to the research community since May 2015, represents an important tool to advance our understanding of the subseasonal to seasonal time range that has been co...

An overview of BCC climate system model development and application for climate change studies

This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) and its four component models (atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice). Two recent versions are described: BCC_CSM1.1 with coarse resolution (approximately 2.8125°×2.8125°) and BCC_CSM1.1(m) with moderate resolution (approximately 1.125°×1.125°). Both versions are fully coupled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation. Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed. Simulations using these two versions of the BCC_CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase five (CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate projections.Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC_CSM1.1 and BCC_CSM1.1(m) are presented and validated, with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales. Simulations of climate during the last millennium and projections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed. Both BCC_CSM1.1 and BCC_CSM1.1(m) perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models. Preliminary analyses indicate that the higher resolution in BCC_CSM1.1(m) improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC_CSM1.1, particularly on regional scales.

Recent Progress in Studies of Climate Change in China

An overview of basic research on climate change in recent years in China is presented. In the past 100 years in China, average annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) has increased at a rate ranging from 0.03°C (10 yr)−1 to 0.12°C (10 yr)−1. This warming is more evident in northern China and is more significant in winter and spring. In the past 50 years in China, at least 27% of the average annual warming has been caused by urbanization. Overall, no significant trends have been detected in annual and/or summer precipitation in China on a whole for the past 100 years or 50 years. Both increases and decreases in frequencies of major extreme climate events have been observed for the past 50 years. The frequencies of extreme temperature events have generally displayed a consistent pattern of change across the country, while the frequencies of extreme precipitation events have shown only regionally and seasonally significant trends. The frequency of tropical cyclone landfall decreased slightly, but the frequency of sand/dust storms decreased significantly. Proxy records indicate that the annual mean SAT in the past a few decades is the highest in the past 400–500 years in China, but it may not have exceeded the highest level of the Medieval Warm Period (1000–1300 AD). Proxy records also indicate that droughts and floods in eastern China have been characterized by continuously abnormal rainfall periods, with the frequencies of extreme droughts and floods in the 20th century most likely being near the average levels of the past 2000 years. The attribution studies suggest that increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere are likely to be a main factor for the observed surface warming nationwide. The Yangtze River and Huaihe River basins underwent a cooling trend in summer over the past 50 years, which might have been caused by increased aerosol concentrations and cloud cover. However, natural climate variability might have been a main driver for the mean and extreme precipitation variations observed over the past century. Climate models generally perform well in simulating the variations of annual mean SAT in China. They have also been used to project future changes in SAT under varied GHG emission scenarios. Large uncertainties have remained in these model-based projections, however, especially for the projected trends of regional precipitation and extreme climate events.

Causes and implications of persistent atmospheric carbon dioxide biases in Earth System Models

The strength of feedbacks between a changing climate and future CO2 concentrations is uncertain and difficult to predict using Earth System Models (ESMs). We analyzed emission-driven simulations—in which atmospheric CO2levels were computed prognostically—for historical (1850–2005) and future periods (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for 2006–2100) produced by 15 ESMs for the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Comparison of ESM prognostic atmospheric CO2 over the historical period with observations indicated that ESMs, on average, had a small positive bias in predictions of contemporary atmospheric CO2. Weak ocean carbon uptake in many ESMs contributed to this bias, based on comparisons with observations of ocean and atmospheric anthropogenic carbon inventories. We found a significant linear relationship between contemporary atmospheric CO2 biases and future CO2levels for the multimodel ensemble. We used this relationship to create a contemporary CO2 tuned model (CCTM) estimate of the atmospheric CO2 trajectory for the 21st century. The CCTM yielded CO2estimates of 600±14 ppm at 2060 and 947±35 ppm at 2100, which were 21 ppm and 32 ppm below the multimodel mean during these two time periods. Using this emergent constraint approach, the likely ranges of future atmospheric CO2, CO2-induced radiative forcing, and CO2-induced temperature increases for the RCP 8.5 scenario were considerably narrowed compared to estimates from the full ESM ensemble. Our analysis provided evidence that much of the model-to-model variation in projected CO2 during the 21st century was tied to biases that existed during the observational era and that model differences in the representation of concentration-carbon feedbacks and other slowly changing carbon cycle processes appear to be the primary driver of this variability. By improving models to more closely match the long-term time series of CO2from Mauna Loa, our analysis suggests that uncertainties in future climate projections can be reduced.