Tony Prato

Multiple attribute decision analysis for ecosystem management

Abstract Implementation of an ecosystem approach to natural resource management requires evaluation of a broad array of ecological services in a multidimensional, community-based watershed approach that empowers people to make informed management decisions. Conventional economic approaches that assign values to ecological services (contingent valuation) or that evaluate the efficiency of preserving and restoring those services (cost–benefit analysis) are quite limited for this purpose. In addition to the methodological difficulties encountered in applying contingent valuation and cost–benefit analysis, several problems occur when nonmarket values of ecological services are estimated independently of ecosystem planning and management. Multiple attribute decision-making (MADM) is an alternative conceptual framework for evaluating and selecting land and water resource management systems (LWRMS). Advantages of MADM are that it facilitates community-based collaborative decision-making, avoids some of the ethical, theoretical and practical shortcomings of conventional economic approaches, does not require assigning monetary values to ecological services, allows consideration of multiple attributes and is not culturally biased. The MADM model described in this paper explains how a property manager selects the most preferred LWRMS for a property based on their multiple stochastic attributes. Application of the model requires determination of the technically feasible LWRMS for a property and specification of the socially acceptable ranges of attributes. This information is combined with economic/biophysical simulations to derive the efficient combination of attributes and LWRMS for a property. The property manager then selects the most preferred combination of attributes from the efficient combinations of attributes for a property using utility maximization, surrogate worth tradeoff, free iterative search, analytical hierarchy process, Aspiration–Reservation Based Decision Support System or stochastic dominance. A watershed alliance can evaluate the sustainability of the most preferred LWRMS for properties in a watershed based on a weak or strong sustainability criterion. If the alliance determines that the most preferred LWRMS are not sustainable, then an index of attributes is used to evaluate the cost effectiveness of alternative public policies for stimulating the adoption of more sustainable LWRMS.

Multiple-attribute evaluation of ecosystem management for the Missouri River system

Abstract Multiple attribute evaluation is used to score and rank five management alternatives for the Missouri River system developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Alternatives are characterized by 10 attributes, namely flood control, hydropower, recreation, Missouri River navigation, water supply, fish and wildlife, interior drainage, groundwater, historic properties and Mississippi River navigation. Since preferences for the attributes are unknown, alternatives are compared using four hypothetical attribute-weighting schemes. Utility scores for the alternatives obtained using a linear additive utility function indicate that the modified conservation plan (MCP), which incorporates adaptive management, increased drought conservation measures, changes in Fort Peck dam releases and unbalanced levels in the upper three reservoirs, is preferred to the current water control plan (CWCP) with the neutral, pro-recreation/fish and wildlife, and pro-fish and wildlife weights. MCP ranked above the four Gavins Point (GP) alternatives except with the pro-fish and wildlife weights. CWCP is more preferred than the four GP options with the neutral and pro-agriculture weights and less preferred with the pro-recreation/fish and wildlife and pro-fish and wildlife weights. The GP option with the lowest reduction in summer flow and smallest spring rise (GPA) ranks above the GP option with the highest spring rise and greatest reduction in summer flow (GPB), a spring rise only (GPC) and a lower summer flow only (GPD).

Selecting farming systems using a new multiple criteria decision model: the balancing and ranking method

Abstract A new multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) method, called the Balancing and Ranking Method, is presented. The method overcomes some of the deficiencies of other MCDM methods, such as subjective evaluation of criteria weights, scoring of options, statistical estimation of weights and specification of the utility function for criteria. The new method uses a three-step procedure to derive an overall complete final order of options. First, an outranking matrix is derived, which indicates the frequency with which one option is superior to all other options based on each criterion. Second, the outranking matrix is triangularized to obtain an implicit pre-ordering or provisional order of options. Third, the provisional order of options is subjected to various screening and balancing operations that require sequential application of a balancing principle to the so-called advantages–disadvantages table that combines the criteria with the pair-wise comparisons of options. The new method is used to rank five farming systems (FS) for a claypan soil region in the Midwestern US.

Fuzzy adaptive management of social and ecological carrying capacities for protected areas

Commonly used methods of evaluating the degree of consistency of protected area ecosystems with social and ecological carrying capacities are likely to result in decision errors. This occurs because such methods do not account for imprecision and uncertainty in inferring the degree of ecosystem consistency from an observed ecosystem indicator. This paper proposes a fuzzy adaptive management approach to determine whether a protected area ecosystem is consistent with ecological and social carrying capacities and, if not, to identify management actions that are most likely to achieve consistency when there is uncertainty about the current degree of consistency and how alternative management actions are likely to influence that consistency. The proposed approach is illustrated using a hypothetical example that uses an ecosystem indicator that reflects combinations of different levels of user satisfaction and conservation of threatened and endangered species. Application of the proposed fuzzy adaptive management approach requires a protected area manager to: (1) identify alternative management actions for achieving ecosystem consistency with social and ecological carrying capacities in each of several management zones in a protected area; (2) randomly assign alternative management actions to management zones; (3) define fuzzy sets for the ecosystem indicator and degree of ecosystem consistency, and fuzzy relations between the ecosystem indicator and the degree of ecosystem consistency; (4) monitor the indicator in each management zone; (5) define fuzzy sets based on the observed indicator in each management zone; and (6) combine the fuzzy sets defined on the observed indicator and the fuzzy relations between the indicator and the degree of ecosystem consistency to reach conclusions about the most likely degree of consistency for alternative management actions in each management zone. The fuzzy adaptive management approach proposed here is advantageous when the benefits of avoiding the decision errors inherent with crisp and stochastic decision rules outweigh the added cost of implementing the approach.

Economic and Environmental Evaluation of Variable Rate Nitrogen and Lime Application for Claypan Soil Fields

Variable Rate Technology (VRT) has the potential to increase crop yields and improve water quality relative to Uniform Rate Technology (URT). The effects on profitability and water quality of adopting VRT for nitrogen (N) and lime were evaluated for corn production on four claypan soil fields in north central Missouri under average to better than average weather conditions. Variable N and lime rates were based on measured topsoil depth and soil pH, respectively. VRT rates were compared to two different uniform N applications (URT-Nl based on the topsoil depth within these claypan soil fields, and URT-N2 based on a typical N rate for corn production in this area). Expected corn yield was predicted based on topsoil depth, soil pH, N rate, and lime rate. Water quality benefits of VRT relative to URT were evaluated based on potential leachable N. Sensitivity analyses were performed using simulated topsoil data for topsoil depth and soil pH. Results showed that VRT was more profitable than URT in the four sample fields under URT-N1, and in two of the four fields under URT-N2. Greater variation in topsoil depth and soil pH resulted in higher profitability and greater water quality benefits with VRT. Results support adoption of VRT for N and lime application for other claypan soil fields with characteristics similar to those in the fields used in this study.

Evaluating Environmental Risks Using Safety-First Constraints

This article incorporates an upper partial moment concept into a linear programming model to impose safety-first environmental constraints. The model is linear and deterministic, treats a discrete sample as an empirical distribution, and optimizes over the column space. It allows a decision maker to specify the objectives and the compliance probabilities with the objectives when making decisions, and endogenously determines the risk levels. Even though it is presented in the context of environmental management, the model is general enough to be extended to other situations where the probability of a variable exceeding some target or standard is restricted. Copyright 2001, Oxford University Press.

Economic and water quality evaluation of intensive shrimp production systems in Thailand

Economic feasibility of five intensive shrimp production systems are evaluated using farm survey data for 20 contract farms and 31 independent farms in the Ranot District of Songkhla Province in southern Thailand. Generalized stochastic dominance (GSD) is applied to net economic returns to determine the rank order of the five production systems for farmers n, ith different risk preferences. Water samples drawn from growout and sedimentation ponds and the ocean are tested for 12 water quality indicators. A production system used by independent farms is the most profitable system for all risk preferences evaluated. However, the system generates highly polluted wastewater. One production system used by contract farms provides the best overall quality of water, but has a Ion, economic return. Not all production systems that improve water quality result in lower economic returns, Getting shrimp producers to adopt production systems that improve water quality will require effective regulations and/or economic incentives. Copyright

MULTIPLE-OBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING FOR AGROECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT

Multiple-objective decision making (MODEM) provides an effective framework for integrated resource assessment of agroecosystems. Two elements of integrated assessment are discussed and illustrated: (1) adding noneconomic objectives as constraints in an optimization problem; and (2) evaluating tradeoffs among competing objectives using the efficiency frontier for objectives. These elements are illustrated for a crop farm and watershed in northern Missouri. An interactive, spatial decision support system (ISDSS) makes the MODEM framework accessible to unsophisticated users. A conceptual ISDSS is presented that assesses the socioeconomic, environmental, and ecological consequences of alternative management plans for reducing soil erosion and nonpoint source pollution in agroecosystems. A watershed decision support system based on the ISDSS is discussed.

Accounting for Spatial Characteristics of Watersheds in Evaluating Water Pollution Abatement Policies

This study evaluates three agricultural nonpoint pollution abatement policies: regulating the spatial pattern of agricultural activities, ambient tax, and abatement tax/subsidy. All three policies incorporate spatial characteristics of agricultural emission loading and movement for an agricultural watershed in the Midwest. The effects of spatial variation in natural conditions and landscape features on agricultural emissions and crop yield are evaluated using a newly developed biophysical simulation model and experimental data. While the policies are equally cost effective in reducing agricultural nonpoint source pollution, their implementation feasibility is quite different.

Understanding evacuation preferences and wildfire mitigations among Northwest Montana residents

There is currently insufficient information in the United States about residents’ planned evacuation actions during wildfire events, including any intent to remain at or near home during fire events. This is incompatible with growing evidence that select populations at risk from wildfire are considering alternatives to evacuation. This study explores the evacuation preferences of wildland–urban interface residents in Flathead County, Montana, USA. We compare the performance of wildfire mitigation and fuel reduction actions across groups of residents with different primary evacuation preferences. We also explore what factors (e.g. actions, demographics, attitudes towards government, risk perceptions) help explain residents’ preferences for evacuation. Results suggest that relatively high proportions of residents are interested in staying and defending their homes, with smaller proportions favouring evacuation or passively sheltering in their homes during wildfire. Vegetation management behaviour differs significantly among residents with different evacuation preferences, including significantly higher rates of forest thinning among those intending to remain at home and actively defend their residence. Other results suggest that sex, part-time residency, income and attitudes towards loss from fire are statistically associated with differences in evacuation preferences.