Torben O. Sonnenborg

Methodology for construction, calibration and validation of a national hydrological model for Denmark

An integrated groundwater/surface water hydrological model with a 1 km2 grid has been constructed for Denmark covering 43,000 km2. The model is composed of a relatively simple root zone component for estimating the net precipitation, a comprehensive three-dimensional groundwater component for estimating recharge to and hydraulic heads in different geological layers, and a river component for streamflow routing and calculating stream–aquifer interaction. The model was constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE code and by utilising comprehensive national databases on geology, soil, topography, river systems, climate and hydrology. The present paper describes the modelling process for the 7330 km2 island of Sjaelland with emphasis on the problems experienced in combining the classical paradigms of groundwater modelling, such as inverse modelling of steady-state conditions, and catchment modelling, focussing on dynamic conditions and discharge simulation. Three model versions with different assumptions on input data and parameter values were required until the performance of the final, according to pre-defined accuracy criteria, model was evaluated as being satisfactory. The paper highlights the methodological issues related to establishment of performance criteria, parameterisation and assessment of parameter values from field data, calibration and validation test schemes. Most of the parameter values were assessed directly from field data, while about 10 ‘free’ parameters were subject to calibration using a combination of inverse steady-state groundwater modelling and manual trial-and-error dynamic groundwater/surface water modelling. Emphasising the importance of tests against independent data, the validation schemes included combinations of split-sample tests (another period) and proxy-basin tests (another area).

Impact of climate and land use change on the hydrology of a large‐scale agricultural catchment

[1] This paper presents a quantitative comparison of plausible climate and land use change impacts on the hydrology of a large-scale agricultural catchment. An integrated, distributed hydrological model was used to simulate changes in the groundwater system and its discharge to rivers and drains for two climate scenarios (2071-2100). Annual groundwater recharge increased significantly (especially the B2 scenario), giving higher groundwater heads and stream discharges and amplifying the seasonal dynamics significantly. Owing to drier summers, irrigation volumes increased by up to 90% compared to current values. Changing the land use from grass to forest had a minor effect on groundwater recharge, whereas CO 2 effects on transpiration resulted in a relatively large increase in recharge. This study has shown that climate change has the most substantial effect on the hydrology in this catchment, whereas other factors such as irrigation, CO 2 effects on transpiration, and land use changes affect the water balance to a lesser extent.

A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.

Removal of NAPLs from the unsaturated zone using steam: prevention of downward migration by injecting mixtures of steam and air.

Steam injection for remediation of porous media contaminated by nonaqueous phase liquids has been shown to be a potentially efficient technology. There is, however, concern that the technique may lead to downward migration of separate phase contaminant. In this work, a modification of the steam injection technology is presented, where a mixture of steam and air was injected. In two-dimensional experiments with unsaturated porous medium contaminated with nonaqueous phase liquids, it was demonstrated how injection of pure steam lead to severe downward migration. Similar experiments, where steam and air were injected simultaneously, resulted in practically no downward migration and still rapid cleanup was achieved. The processes responsible for the prevention of downward migration when injecting steam-air mixtures were analyzed using a nonisothermal multiphase flow and transport model. Hereby, three mechanisms were identified and it was demonstrated how the effectiveness of these mechanisms depended on the air-to-steam mixing ratio.

Transition probability- based stochastic geological modeling using airborne geophysical data and borehole data

Geological heterogeneity is a very important factor to consider when developing geological models for hydrological purposes. Using statistically based stochastic geological simulations, the spatial heterogeneity in such models can be accounted for. However, various types of uncertainties are associated with both the geostatistical method and the observation data. In the present study, TProGS is used as the geostatistical modeling tool to simulate structural heterogeneity for glacial deposits in a head water catchment in Denmark. The focus is on how the observation data uncertainty can be incorporated in the stochastic simulation process. The study uses two types of observation data: borehole data and airborne geophysical data. It is commonly acknowledged that the density of the borehole data is usually too sparse to characterize the horizontal heterogeneity. The use of geophysical data gives an unprecedented opportunity to obtain high-resolution information and thus to identify geostatistical properties more accurately especially in the horizontal direction. However, since such data are not a direct measurement of the lithology, larger uncertainty of point estimates can be expected as compared to the use of borehole data. We have proposed a histogram probability matching method in order to link the information on resistivity to hydrofacies, while considering the data uncertainty at the same time. Transition probabilities and Markov Chain models are established using the transformed geophysical data. It is shown that such transformation is in fact practical; however, the cutoff value for dividing the resistivity data into facies is difficult to determine. The simulated geological realizations indicate significant differences of spatial structure depending on the type of conditioning data selected. It is to our knowledge the first time that grid-to-grid airborne geophysical data including the data uncertainty are used in conditional geostatistical simulations in TProGS. Therefore, it provides valuable insights regarding the advantages and challenges of using such comprehensive data.

Contaminant Transport at a Waste Residue Deposit: 1. Inverse Flow and Nonreactive Transport Modeling

An application of an inverse flow and transport model to a contaminated aquifer is presented. The objective of the study is to identify physical and nonreactive flow and transport parameters through an optimization approach. The approach can be classified as a statistical procedure, where a flow and transport simulation model is combined with nonlinear least squares multiple regression. The U.S. Geological Survey method of characteristics model is used to simulate flow and transport, and the optimization part is solved using a Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. The sensitivity of the optimization approach to steady state versus transient flow conditions and to the amount of hydraulic and solute data used is investigated. The flow parameters, transmissivity and leakage factor, are estimated simultaneously with the transport parameters: source strength, porosity, and longitudinal dispersivity. This paper is the first in a two-paper series describing contaminant transport at a waste residue site. In the second paper, reactive transport at the site is investigated.

Aqueous flow and transport in analog systems of fractures embedded in permeable matrix

Two-dimensional laboratory investigations of flow and transport in a fractured permeable medium are presented. Matrix blocks of a manufactured consolidated permeable medium were arranged together to create fractures in the spaces between the blocks. Experiments examined flow and transport in four different configurations: (1) matrix only, (2) and (3) matrix blocks containing single fractures of different mean apertures, and (4) a brickwork pattern setup simulating a tortuous multiple fracture network. The observed partitioning of flow and solute concentrations suggested mass exchange between the fractures and the matrix was occurring. An analysis of the experimental results using a discrete fracture model and a range of constant aperture models showed that this approach did not capture the correct flow mechanisms. Subsequent simulations including spatial variations of the fracture aperture were better able to describe the experimental observations and to show that these variations cause mass exchange between the fracture and matrix.

Assessment of climate change impacts on the quantity and quality of a coastal catchment using a coupled groundwater–surface water model

The hydrology of coastal catchments is influenced by both sea level and climate. Hence, a comprehensive assessment of the impact of climate change on coastal catchments is a challenging task. In the present study, a coupled groundwater–surface water model is forced by dynamically downscaled results from a general circulation model. The effects on water quantity and quality of a relatively large lake used for water supply are analyzed. Although stream inflow to the lake is predicted to decrease during summer, the storage capacity of the lake is found to provide a sufficient buffer to support sustainable water abstraction in the future. On the other hand, seawater intrusion into the stream is found to be a significant threat to the water quality of the lake, possibly limiting its use for water supply and impacting the aquatic environment. Additionally, the results indicate that the nutrient load to the lake and adjacent coastal waters is likely to increase significantly, which will increase eutrophication and have negative effects on the surface water ecology. The hydrological impact assessment is based on only one climate change projection; nevertheless, the range of changes generated by other climate models indicates that the predicted results are a plausible realization of climate change impacts. The problems identified here are expected to be relevant for many coastal regimes, where the hydrology is determined by the interaction between saline and fresh groundwater and surface water systems.

Model analysis of mechanisms controlling pneumatic soil vapor extraction

The efficiency of traditional soil venting or soil vapor extraction (SVE) highly depends on the architecture of the subsurface because imposed advective air flow tends to bypass low-permeable contaminated areas. Pneumatic SVE is a technique developed to enhance remediation efficiency of heterogeneous soils by enforcing large fluctuating pressure fronts through the contaminated area. Laboratory experiments have suggested that pneumatic SVE considerably improves the recovery rate from low-permeable units. We have analyzed the experimental results using a numerical code and quantified the physical processes controlling the functioning of the method. A sensitivity analysis for selected boundary conditions, initial conditions and parameters was carried out to examine how the method behaves under conditions different from the experimental set-up. The simulations show that at the laboratory level the pneumatic venting technology is superior to the traditional technique, and that the method is particularly efficient in cases where large permeability contrasts exist between soil units in the subsurface.

Climate change impacts on groundwater hydrology – where are the main uncertainties and can they be reduced?

ABSTRACT This paper assesses how various sources of uncertainty propagate through the uncertainty cascade from emission scenarios through climate models and hydrological models to impacts, with a particular focus on groundwater aspects from a number of coordinated studies in Denmark. Our results are similar to those from surface water studies showing that climate model uncertainty dominates the results for projections of climate change impacts on streamflow and groundwater heads. However, we found uncertainties related to geological conceptualization and hydrological model discretization to be dominant for projections of well field capture zones, while the climate model uncertainty here is of minor importance. How to reduce the uncertainties on climate change impact projections related to groundwater is discussed, with an emphasis on the potential for reducing climate model biases through the use of fully coupled climate–hydrology models. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor not assigned