Torben Voetmann

A New Approach for Interpreting Long-Run Returns, Applied to IPO and SEO Stocks

In this paper, we introduce a new approach for interpreting long-run returns; which we then test on IPOs and SEOs in Denmark. We demonstrate that by decomposing the mean and volatility components of the expected crosssectional buy-and-hold returns, we can improve the interpretation of long-run returns. Using a traditional method, we found that after five years the buyand-hold returns of IPO and SEO stocks underperformed the market by 27.3 percent and 21.4 percent, respectively. By applying the new approach we found that after five years the same stocks underperformed by 43.7 percent and 38.1 percent. Although underperformance has long been documented in the empirical literature, we found that the underperformance is larger than previously documented. c 2005 Peking University Press

Private Class Action Litigation Risk of Chinese Firms Listed in the U.S.

Chinese reverse mergers (CRMs) claim to provide easy entry to the U.S. and international markets. Recently, a large number of Chinese firms using reverse merger transactions have been listed on the U.S. stock exchanges. We review the historical use and mechanics of these reverse mergers, and contrast them with initial public offerings (IPOs). We also explore settlements of securities class action lawsuits involving Chinese firms. Our analysis shows that larger, more reputable Chinese firms are significantly less likely to pursue reverse mergers. We also find that CRM firms are more likely to be subject to class action litigation in the U.S and that the settlement amounts are smaller for CRM firms than for Chinese IPO firms. Our analysis further indicates that CRM firms significantly underperform the Chinese IPO firms. Thus, the evidence suggests that CRMs are not substitutes for Chinese IPOs.We analyze the litigation risk of Chinese firms listed in the US. We find that firm-specific characteristics from prior literature studying US firms are not correlated with the litigation risk of US-listed Chinese firms. However, our findings indicate that the method of listing is the only reliable predictor of litigation risk — firms listing via reverse merger are significantly more likely to face lawsuits compared to firms listing via initial public offering (IPO). We find that Chinese reverse merger (CRMs) firms, relative to Chinese IPOs, have lower analyst following, similar post-listing stock performance, higher operating cash flows, smaller size, and lower cash holdings. We conclude that the litigation risk differential is consistent with the bonding hypothesis of [Stulz 1999, Globalization of Equity Markets and the Cost of Capital, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 12, 8–25], wherein the higher litigation risk of CRMs is a reflection of increased but varying levels of monitoring, starting with the regulatory oversight at the pre-listing stage and a post-listing tradeoff between enforcement and monitoring by shareholders.

The Bid-Ask Spread in the Danish Stock Market: Evidence from the 1990s

This paper investigates the relative magnitude of the components in the bid-ask spread around earnings announcements using the method in Stoll (1989). The results show that earnings surprises convey relevant pricing information and that significant information asymmetry exists between the market makers and the informed traders. Around negative earnings announcements the adverse-selection component and the trading volume increase while the inventory-holding and order-processing components decrease. This leads to a decrease in the realized spread. The magnitude of the change in the realized spread appears to be important but the change in the quoted bid-ask spread is negligible. The overall result implies that the informed traders’ ability to assess firms’ performance only affect the bidask spread around the time of the earnings announcements.

Does Ownership Matter in the Presence of Strict Antiactivism Legislation? Evidence from Equity Transactions in Denmark

This study analyzes the effects of institutional and strategic investor equity transactions on the behavior of stock prices on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange (XCSE). Unlike the positive relationship between managerial ownership and security performance, we find that the relationship between ownership and performance is a bell-shaped curve. There is an optimal threshold level of ownership at which security performance, measured by abnormal returns, is maximized. At the threshold level, the management can take advantage of the shared benefit of control. Beyond the threshold level of ownership, the security performance decreases. We attribute this threshold level to an increasing entrenchment benefit.

Demand Curves for European Stocks Slope Down Too

The 2000 implementation of float-capitalization index weights in the Dow Jones STOXX-super-SM indices changed the demand for large European stocks. In this paper, we test for imperfect-substitution and price-pressure effects due to the change in the demand for stocks. Our results show that we cannot reject complete reversal after eight weeks of abnormal trading volume for companies with both decreased or increased index weights. This result is consistent with the existence of downward sloping demand curves for stocks. Contrary to the fundamental assumption of perfectly elastic demand curves in asset pricing theories, our findings suggest that a price pressure effect is not a plausible explanation.