Toru Terao

The Indian Ocean Dipole and malaria risk in the highlands of western Kenya

Epidemics of malaria in the East African highlands in the last 2 decades have often been associated with climate variability, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, there are other factors associated with malaria risk and there is increased interest in the influences of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a climate mode of coupled ocean–atmosphere variability, on East African rainfall. This study explores the relationship between IOD and the number of malaria patients in 7 hospitals from 2 districts in the western Kenyan highlands, controlling for the effects of ENSO. We examined temporal patterns (1982–2001) in the number of malaria cases in relation to the dipole mode index (DMI), defined as the difference in sea surface temperature anomaly between the western (10°S-10°N, 50°-70°E) and eastern (10°S-0°, 90°-110°E) tropical Indian Ocean. We used Poisson regression models, adjusted for ENSO index Niño 3 region (NINO3), seasonal and interannual variations. The number of malaria patients per month increased by 3.4%–17.9% for each 0.1 increase above a DMI threshold (3–4 months lag). Malaria cases increased by 1.4%–10.7% per month, for each 10 mm increase in monthly rainfall (2–3 months lag). In 6 of 7 places, there was no evidence of an association between NINO3 and the number of malaria cases after adjusting for the effect of DMI. This study suggests that the number of malaria cases in the western Kenyan highlands increases with high DMI in the months preceding hospital visits.

The Indian Ocean Dipole and Cholera Incidence in Bangladesh: A Time-Series Analysis

Background It has been reported that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the interannual variation of endemic cholera in Bangladesh. There is increased interest in the influence of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), a climate mode of coupled ocean–atmosphere variability, on regional ocean climate in the Bay of Bengal and on Indian monsoon rainfall. Objectives We explored the relationship between the IOD and the number of cholera patients in Bangladesh, controlling for the effects of ENSO. Methods Time-series regression was performed. Negative binomial models were used to estimate associations between the monthly number of hospital visits for cholera in Dhaka and Matlab (1993–2007) and the dipole mode index (DMI) controlling for ENSO index [NINO3, a measure of the average sea surface temperature (SST) in the Niño 3 region], seasonal, and interannual variations. Associations between cholera cases and SST and sea surface height (SSH) of the northern Bay of Bengal were also examined. Results A 0.1-unit increase in average DMI during the current month through 3 months before was associated with an increase in cholera incidence of 2.6% [(95% confidence interval (CI), 0.0–5.2; p = 0.05] in Dhaka and 6.9% (95% CI, 3.2–10.8; p < 0.01) in Matlab. Cholera incidence in Dhaka increased by 2.4% (95% CI, 0.0–5.0; p = 0.06) after a 0.1-unit decrease in DMI 4–7 months before. Hospital visits for cholera in both areas were positively associated with SST 0–3 months before, after adjusting for SSH (p < 0.01). Conclusions These findings suggest that both negative and positive dipole events are associated with an increased incidence of cholera in Bangladesh with varying time lags.

The Role of Temperature Inversions in the Generation of Seasonal and Interannual SST Variability in the Far Northern Bay of Bengal

AbstractThe northern Bay of Bengal is characterized by freshwater supply from the Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers. The resulting shallow haline stratification and thick barrier layer lead to temperature inversions in fall and winter, that is, cool surface water overlaying warm subsurface water. This study examines sea surface temperature (SST) variability off Bangladesh and shows that temperature inversions play an essential role in generating seasonal and interannual SST variability there. Two satellite SST datasets reveal that the magnitude of SST variability has a local peak near the coast of Bangladesh on seasonal and interannual time scales. Output from a high-resolution ocean general circulation model, which is validated by satellite SST and Argo float observations, is used to calculate the mixed layer heat budget. Results show that inverted temperature profiles lead to SST warming on the seasonal time scale via heat exchange at the bottom of the mixed layer, which balances climatological atmospheric ...

Roles of Low- and High-Frequency Eddies in the Transitional Process of the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode

Abstract The effects of low- and high-frequency eddies (time scales longer and shorter than 10 days, respectively) on the transitional processes of the Southern Hemisphere “Annular Mode” are investigated, based on NCEP–NCAR daily reanalysis data for the period 1979–2001. Special attention is focused on the zonal symmetry/asymmetry and the temporal evolution of the eddy forcing. For the poleward transitional process, the effects of low-frequency eddies precede those of high-frequency eddies in driving the jet transition. Quasi-stationary Rossby waves propagating along the polar jet with wavelengths of 7000 km play an important role. The waves, originally come from the Indian Ocean through the waveguide associated with the polar jet, dissipate equatorward over the eastern Pacific Ocean. This anomalous equatorward dissipation of wave activity induces an anomalous poleward momentum flux, which is responsible for changes in the polar jet over the Pacific Ocean during the beginning stage. Following the low-freq...

In situ observational research of the gap wind “Hijikawa-Arashi” in Japan

The Hijikawa-arashi, a gap wind occurring in Ozu City, Ehime Prefecture, Japan, was investigated through in situ observations of horizontal and vertical directions. Analysis of surface air temperature data revealed that the inland Ozu Basin was radiatively cooled on the days on which the Hijikawa-arashi events occurred. This induced a greater difference in air temperature between the basin and the estuary of the Hijikawa River in comparison to days that no basin cooling occurred. In addition, the wind speeds of the Hijikawa-arashi observed at the estuary of the Hijikawa River were strongly proportional to the sea-level pressure difference between the inland Ozu Basin and the estuary. Theoretical calculations indicated that this pressure gradient force was sufficient for driving the strong wind of the Hijikawa-arashi. Moreover, calculation of the Froude number using vertical meteorological data revealed that the Hijikawa-arashi developed as a supercritical flow. That is, the flow was intensified at the exit of the gap, in accordance with the hydraulic theory. The vertical observations detected the inversion layer over the Hijikawa-arashi and suggested an application of the shallow water theory to this gap wind. The Hijikawa-arashi is an interesting gap flow with a strong wind, despite its small-scale geography relative to other gap winds worldwide. There is an important trigger getting higher basin pressure upstream due to the radiative cooling of the atmosphere and formation of a cold pool at the basin.

Dominant Synoptic Disturbance in the Extreme Rainfall at Cherrapunji, Northeast India, Based on 104 Years of Rainfall Data (1902–2005)

AbstractThe characteristics of active rainfall spells (ARSs) at Cherrapunji, northeast India, where extreme high rainfall is experienced, and their relationships with large-scale dynamics were studied using daily rainfall data from 1902 to 2005 and Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis from 1958 to 2005. Extreme high daily rainfalls occur in association with ARSs. The extremely large amounts of rainfall in the monsoon season are determined by the cumulative rainfall during ARSs. ARSs start when anomalous anticyclonic circulation (AAC) at 850 hPa propagates westward from the South China Sea and western North Pacific, and covers the northern Bay of Bengal. The AAC propagates farther westward and suppresses convection over central India during ARSs at Cherrapunji, and continues for 3 to 14 days. Consequently, a northward shift of the monsoon trough during the “break” in the Indian core region occurs. The westerly wind, which prevails in the northern portion of the AAC, transports moisture toward northeast India and en...