Toshiharu Ninomiya

Risks of cardiovascular events and effects of routine blood pressure lowering among patients with type 2 diabetes and atrial fibrillation: results of the ADVANCE study.

AIMS The aim of this study was to investigate serious clinical outcomes associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) and the effects of routine blood pressure lowering on such outcomes in the presence or absence of AF, among individuals with type 2 diabetes. METHODS AND RESULTS About 11 140 patients with type 2 diabetes (7.6% of whom had AF at baseline) were randomized to a fixed combination of perindopril and indapamide or placebo in the Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: preterAx and diamicroN-MR Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) study. We compared total mortality and cardiovascular disease outcomes and effects of randomized treatment for 4.3 years on such outcomes between patients with and without AF at baseline. After multiple adjustments, AF was associated with a 61% (95% confidence interval 31-96, P < 0.0001) greater risk of all-cause mortality and comparable higher risks of cardiovascular death, stroke, and heart failure (all P < 0.001). Routine treatment with a fixed combination of perindopril and indapamide produced similar relative, but greater absolute, risk reductions for all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities in patients with AF, compared with those without AF. The number of patients needed to be treated with perindopril-indapamide for 5 years to prevent one cardiovascular death was 42 for patients with AF and 120 for patients without AF at baseline. CONCLUSION Atrial fibrillation is relatively common in type 2 diabetes and is associated with substantially increased risks of death and cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes. This arrhythmia identifies individuals who are likely to obtain greater absolute benefits from blood pressure-lowering treatment. Atrial fibrillation in diabetic patients should be regarded as a marker of particularly adverse outcome and prompt aggressive management of all risk factors.

Severe Hypoglycemia and Risks of Vascular Events and Death

BACKGROUND Severe hypoglycemia may increase the risk of a poor outcome in patients with type 2 diabetes assigned to an intensive glucose-lowering intervention. We analyzed data from a large study of intensive glucose lowering to explore the relationship between severe hypoglycemia and adverse clinical outcomes. METHODS We examined the associations between severe hypoglycemia and the risks of macrovascular or microvascular events and death among 11,140 patients with type 2 diabetes, using Cox proportional-hazards models with adjustment for covariates measured at baseline and after randomization. RESULTS During a median follow-up period of 5 years, 231 patients (2.1%) had at least one severe hypoglycemic episode; 150 had been assigned to intensive glucose control (2.7% of the 5571 patients in that group), and 81 had been assigned to standard glucose control (1.5% of the 5569 patients in that group). The median times from the onset of severe hypoglycemia to the first major macrovascular event, the first major microvascular event, and death were 1.56 years (interquartile range, 0.84 to 2.41), 0.99 years (interquartile range, 0.40 to 2.17), and 1.05 years (interquartile range, 0.34 to 2.41), respectively. During follow-up, severe hypoglycemia was associated with a significant increase in the adjusted risks of major macrovascular events (hazard ratio, 2.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.01 to 4.12), major microvascular events (hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.19 to 2.74), death from a cardiovascular cause (hazard ratio, 2.68; 95% CI, 1.72 to 4.19), and death from any cause (hazard ratio, 2.69; 95% CI, 1.97 to 3.67) (P<0.001 for all comparisons). Similar associations were apparent for a range of nonvascular outcomes, including respiratory, digestive, and skin conditions (P<0.01 for all comparisons). No relationship was found between repeated episodes of severe hypoglycemia and vascular outcomes or death. CONCLUSIONS Severe hypoglycemia was strongly associated with increased risks of a range of adverse clinical outcomes. It is possible that severe hypoglycemia contributes to adverse outcomes, but these analyses indicate that hypoglycemia is just as likely to be a marker of vulnerability to such events. (Funded by Servier and the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00145925.).

Effects of different regimens to lower blood pressure on major cardiovascular events in older and younger adults: meta-analysis of randomised trials.

Objective To quantify the relative risk reductions achieved with different regimens to lower blood pressure in younger and older adults. Design Meta-analyses and meta-regression analyses used to compare the effects on the primary outcome between two age groups (<65 v ≥65 years). Evidence for an interaction between age and the effects of treatment sought by fitting age as a continuous variable and estimating overall effects across trials. Main outcome measures Primary outcome: total major cardiovascular events. Results 31 trials, with 190 606 participants, were included. The meta-analyses showed no clear difference between age groups in the effects of lowering blood pressure or any difference between the effects of the drug classes on major cardiovascular events (all P≥0.24). Neither was there any significant interaction between age and treatment when age was fitted as a continuous variable (all P>0.09). The meta-regressions also showed no difference in effects between the two age groups for the outcome of major cardiovascular events (<65 v ≥65; P=0.38). Conclusions Reduction of blood pressure produces benefits in younger (<65 years) and older (≥65 years) adults, with no strong evidence that protection against major vascular events afforded by different drug classes varies substantially with age.

Albuminuria and Kidney Function Independently Predict Cardiovascular and Renal Outcomes in Diabetes

There are limited data regarding whether albuminuria and reduced estimated GFR (eGFR) are separate and independent risk factors for cardiovascular and renal events among individuals with type 2 diabetes. The Action in Diabetes and Vascular disease: preterAx and diamicroN-MR Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) study examined the effects of routine BP lowering on adverse outcomes in type 2 diabetes. We investigated the effects of urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) and eGFR on the risk for cardiovascular and renal events in 10,640 patients with available data. During an average 4.3-yr follow-up, 938 (8.8%) patients experienced a cardiovascular event and 107 (1.0%) experienced a renal event. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for cardiovascular events was 2.48 (95% confidence interval 1.74 to 3.52) for every 10-fold increase in baseline UACR and 2.20 (95% confidence interval 1.09 to 4.43) for every halving of baseline eGFR, after adjustment for regression dilution. There was no evidence of interaction between the effects of higher UACR and lower eGFR. Patients with both UACR >300 mg/g and eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) at baseline had a 3.2-fold higher risk for cardiovascular events and a 22.2-fold higher risk for renal events, compared with patients with neither of these risk factors. In conclusion, high albuminuria and low eGFR are independent risk factors for cardiovascular and renal events among patients with type 2 diabetes.

Effect of lowering blood pressure on cardiovascular events and mortality in patients on dialysis: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

Summary Background Patients undergoing dialysis have a substantially increased risk of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. Although several trials have shown the cardiovascular benefits of lowering blood pressure in the general population, there is uncertainty about the efficacy and tolerability of reducing blood pressure in patients on dialysis. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the effect of blood pressure lowering in patients on dialysis. Methods We systematically searched Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library database for trials reported between 1950 and November, 2008, without language restriction. We extracted a standardised dataset from randomised controlled trials of blood pressure lowering in patients on dialysis that reported cardiovascular outcomes. Meta-analysis was done with a random effects model. Findings We identified eight relevant trials, which provided data for 1679 patients and 495 cardiovascular events. Weighted mean systolic blood pressure was 4·5 mm Hg lower and diastolic blood pressure 2·3 mm Hg lower in actively treated patients than in controls. Blood pressure lowering treatment was associated with lower risks of cardiovascular events (RR 0·71, 95% CI 0·55–0·92; p=0·009), all-cause mortality (RR 0·80, 0·66–0·96; p=0·014), and cardiovascular mortality (RR 0·71, 0·50–0·99; p=0·044) than control regimens. The effects seem to be consistent across a range of patient groups included in the studies. Interpretation Treatment with agents that lower blood pressure should routinely be considered for individuals undergoing dialysis to reduce the very high cardiovascular morbidity and mortality rate in this population. Funding National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia Program.

Worldwide access to treatment for end-stage kidney disease: a systematic review

BACKGROUND End-stage kidney disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Prevalence of the disease and worldwide use of renal replacement therapy (RRT) are expected to rise sharply in the next decade. We aimed to quantify estimates of this burden. METHODS We systematically searched Medline for observational studies and renal registries, and contacted national experts to obtain RRT prevalence data. We used Poisson regression to estimate the prevalence of RRT for countries without reported data. We estimated the gap between needed and actual RRT, and projected needs to 2030. FINDINGS In 2010, 2·618 million people received RRT worldwide. We estimated the number of patients needing RRT to be between 4·902 million (95% CI 4·438-5·431 million) in our conservative model and 9·701 million (8·544-11·021 million) in our high-estimate model, suggesting that at least 2·284 million people might have died prematurely because RRT could not be accessed. We noted the largest treatment gaps in low-income countries, particularly Asia (1·907 million people needing but not receiving RRT; conservative model) and Africa (432,000 people; conservative model). Worldwide use of RRT is projected to more than double to 5·439 million (3·899-7·640 million) people by 2030, with the most growth in Asia (0·968 million to a projected 2·162 million [1·571-3·014 million]). INTERPRETATION The large number of people receiving RRT and the substantial number without access to it show the need to both develop low-cost treatments and implement effective population-based prevention strategies. FUNDING Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Glucose tolerance status and risk of dementia in the community The Hisayama Study

Objective: We investigated the association between glucose tolerance status defined by a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and the development of dementia. Methods: A total of 1,017 community-dwelling dementia-free subjects aged ≥60 years who underwent the OGTT were followed up for 15 years. Outcome measure was clinically diagnosed dementia. Results: The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of all-cause dementia, Alzheimer disease (AD), and vascular dementia (VaD) were significantly higher in subjects with diabetes than in those with normal glucose tolerance. These associations remained robust even after adjustment for confounding factors for all-cause dementia and AD, but not for VaD (all-cause dementia: adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 1.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.19 to 2.53, p = 0.004; AD: adjusted HR = 2.05, 95% CI = 1.18 to 3.57, p = 0.01; VaD: adjusted HR = 1.82, 95% CI = 0.89 to 3.71, p = 0.09). Moreover, the risks of developing all-cause dementia, AD, and VaD significantly increased with elevated 2-hour postload glucose (PG) levels even after adjustment for covariates, but no such associations were observed for fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels: compared with those with 2-hour PG levels of <6.7 mmol/L, the multivariable-adjusted HRs of all-cause dementia and AD significantly increased in subjects with 2-hour PG levels of 7.8 to 11.0 mmol/L or over, and the risk of VaD was significantly higher in subjects with levels of ≥11.1 mmol/L. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that diabetes is a significant risk factor for all-cause dementia, AD, and probably VaD. Moreover, 2-hour PG levels, but not FPG levels, are closely associated with increased risk of all-cause dementia, AD, and VaD.

Lowering Blood Pressure Reduces Renal Events in Type 2 Diabetes

BP is an important determinant of kidney disease among patients with diabetes. The recommended thresholds to initiate treatment to lower BP are 130/80 and 125/75 mmHg for people with diabetes and nephropathy, respectively. We sought to determine the effects of lowering BP below these currently recommended thresholds on renal outcomes among 11,140 patients who had type 2 diabetes and participated in the Action in Diabetes and Vascular disease: preterAx and diamicroN-MR Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) study. Patients were randomly assigned to fixed combination perindopril-indapamide or placebo, regardless of their BP at entry. During a mean follow-up of 4.3 yr, active treatment reduced the risk for renal events by 21% (P < 0.0001), which was driven by reduced risks for developing microalbuminuria and macroalbuminuria (both P < 0.003). Effects of active treatment were consistent across subgroups defined by baseline systolic or diastolic BP. Lower systolic BP levels during follow-up, even to <110 mmHg, was associated with progressively lower rates of renal events. In conclusion, BP-lowering treatment with perindopril-indapamide administered routinely to individuals with type 2 diabetes provides important renoprotection, even among those with initial BP <120/70 mmHg. We could not identify a BP threshold below which renal benefit is lost.

Combined Effects of Routine Blood Pressure Lowering and Intensive Glucose Control on Macrovascular and Microvascular Outcomes in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: New results from the ADVANCE trial

OBJECTIVE To assess the magnitude and independence of the effects of routine blood pressure lowering and intensive glucose control on clinical outcomes in patients with long-standing type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This was a multicenter, factorial randomized trial of perindopril-indapamide versus placebo (double-blind comparison) and intensive glucose control with a gliclazide MR–based regimen (target A1C ≤6.5%) versus standard glucose control (open comparison) in 11,140 participants with type 2 diabetes who participated in the Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron MR Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) trial. Annual event rates and risks of major macrovascular and microvascular events considered jointly and separately, renal events, and death during an average 4.3 years of follow-up were assessed, using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS There was no interaction between the effects of routine blood pressure lowering and intensive glucose control for any of the prespecified clinical outcomes (all P > 0.1): the separate effects of the two interventions for the renal outcomes and death appeared to be additive on the log scale. Compared with neither intervention, combination treatment reduced the risk of new or worsening nephropathy by 33% (95% CI 12–50%, P = 0.005), new onset of macroalbuminuria by 54% (35–68%, P < 0.0001), and new onset of microalbuminuria by 26% (17–34%). Combination treatment was associated with an 18% reduction in the risk of all-cause death (1–32%, P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS The effects of routine blood pressure lowering and intensive glucose control were independent of one another. When combined, they produced additional reductions in clinically relevant outcomes.

Predominance of Th1 Immune Response in Diffuse Proliferative Lupus Nephritis

OBJECTIVE Lupus nephritis, which shows various histologic patterns, is a serious complication of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We previously demonstrated the importance of Thl cell-mediated immune response in patients with diffuse proliferative lupus nephritis (DPLN). The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between the peripheral blood Th1/Th2 balance and the intrarenal immune response. METHODS The Th1:Th2 ratio in peripheral blood was measured by intracellular staining for cytokines with flow cytometry. Immunohistochemical analysis of renal biopsy specimens was performed to clarify the characterization of local infiltrating cells in 3 groups of subjects: SLE patients with World Health Organization (WHO) class IV nephritis (DPLN) (group I; n = 13), SLE patients with WHO class V nephritis (group II; n = 9), and patients with minor glomerular lesions (group III; n = 7). In addition, the histologic activity index and chronicity index were evaluated and correlated with the Th1:Th2 ratio. RESULTS Immunohistochemical studies showed higher numbers of CD68+ macrophages, CD3 + T cells, and interferon-gamma-positive cells in group I than in groups II or III. Renal tissues from patients in group I also showed up-regulation of expression of osteopontin and CD40, with a small number of infiltrating T cells expressing interleukin-4. Overall, the Thl:Th2 ratio in group I patients (SLE with DPLN) was high and correlated significantly with the histologic activity index, but not with the chronicity index. CONCLUSION We have identified a predominance of Thl-type response in both peripheral and renal tissues of patients with DPLN, suggesting that the peripheral blood Thl:Th2 ratio directly reflects the local histopathologic findings. In patients with lupus nephritis, the peripheral blood Th1:Th2 ratio could be useful as a parameter that reflects the renal histologic activity or the strength of the local Thl response.