Travis C. Porco

The intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis epidemics.

In developed countries the major tuberculosis epidemics declined long before the disease became curable in the 1940s. We present a theoretical framework for assessing the intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis. We demonstrate that it takes one to several hundred years for a tuberculosis epidemic to rise, fall and reach a stable endemic level. Our results suggest that some of the decline of tuberculosis is simply due to the natural behaviour of an epidemic. Although other factors must also have contributed to the decline, these Causal factors were constrained to operate within the slow response time dictated by the intrinsic dynamics.

Longitudinal Study of Cone Photoreceptors during Retinal Degeneration and in Response to Ciliary Neurotrophic Factor Treatment

PURPOSE To study cone photoreceptor structure and function in patients with inherited retinal degenerations treated with sustained-release ciliary neurotrophic factor (CNTF). METHODS Two patients with retinitis pigmentosa and one with Usher syndrome type 2 who participated in a phase 2 clinical trial received CNTF delivered by an encapsulated cell technology implant in one eye and sham surgery in the contralateral eye. Patients were followed longitudinally over 30 to 35 months. Adaptive optics scanning laser ophthalmoscopy (AOSLO) provided high-resolution images at baseline and at 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. AOSLO measures of cone spacing and density and optical coherence tomography measures of retinal thickness were correlated with visual function, including visual acuity (VA), visual field sensitivity, and full-field electroretinography (ERG). RESULTS No significant changes in VA, visual field sensitivity, or ERG responses were observed in either eye of the three patients over 24 months. Outer retinal layers were significantly thicker in CNTF-treated eyes than in sham-treated eyes (P < 0.005). Cone spacing increased by 2.9% more per year in sham-treated eyes than in CNTF-treated eyes (P < 0.001, linear mixed model), and cone density decreased by 9.1%, or 223 cones/degree(2) more per year in sham-treated than in CNTF-treated eyes (P = 0.002, linear mixed model). CONCLUSIONS AOSLO images provided a sensitive measure of disease progression and treatment response in patients with inherited retinal degenerations. Larger studies of cone structure using high-resolution imaging techniques are urgently needed to evaluate the effect of CNTF treatment in patients with inherited retinal degenerations.

Global elimination of trachoma: how frequently should we administer mass chemotherapy?

The World Health Organization has recommended repeat mass drug administration as part of their global initiative to eliminate blinding trachoma by the year 2020. The efficacy of repeat treatment will be tested empirically, but the results will not be available for many years, and recommendations for the necessary frequency of treatment are needed immediately. We have developed a mathematical model that uses available epidemiological data from a variety of countries. We recommend, based on our analysis, that in areas where trachoma is moderately prevalent (<35% in children), it should be treated annually, but hyperendemic areas (>50% in children), it should be treated biannually.

Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in High HIV Prevalence Settings: What Can Mathematical Modelling Contribute to Informed Decision Making?

Experts from UNAIDS, WHO, and the South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling report their review of mathematical models estimating the impact of male circumcision on HIV incidence in high HIV prevalence settings

Effect of Mass Distribution of Azithromycin for Trachoma Control on Overall Mortality in Ethiopian Children: A Randomized Trial

CONTEXT Mass oral azithromycin distribution to affected communities is a cornerstone of the World Health Organizations trachoma elimination program. Antibiotics are provided to target the ocular strains of chlamydia that cause trachoma, but may also be efficacious against respiratory disease, diarrhea, and malaria--frequent causes of childhood mortality in trachoma-endemic areas. OBJECTIVE To compare mortality rates of participants aged 1 to 9 years in treated communities with those in untreated communities. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We conducted a cluster-randomized clinical trial of mass azithromycin administration for trachoma control. Forty-eight communities (known as subkebeles) were randomized into 1 of 3 treatment schedules (annual treatment of all residents [15,902 participants], biannual treatment of all residents [17,288 participants], or quarterly treatment of children only [14,716 participants]) or into 1 group for which treatment was delayed by 1 year (control, 18,498 participants). Twelve subkebeles were randomized to each of the 4 schedules with all children in each of the 3 communities being eligible for treatment. The trial was conducted in a field setting in rural Ethiopia, May 2006 to May 2007. INTERVENTIONS A single dose of oral azithromycin (adults, 1 g; children, 20 mg/kg) was administered for treatment of ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection. Antibiotic coverage levels for children aged 1 to 9 years exceeded 80% at all visits. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE The main outcome measure was the community-specific mortality risk for children aged 1 to 9 years over the course of 1 year. Mortality was measured by enumerative census at baseline and again after 1 year. Comparison of the risk of mortality was a prespecified outcome for the clinical trial. RESULTS The odds ratio for childhood mortality in the intervention communities was 0.51 (95% confidence interval, 0.29-0.90; P = .02; clustered logistic regression) compared with the control group. In the treated communities, the estimated overall mortality rate during this period for children aged 1 to 9 years in the untreated group was 8.3 per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval, 5.3-13.1), while among the treated communities, the estimated overall mortality rate was 4.1 per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval, 3.0-5.7) for children aged 1 to 9 years. CONCLUSION In a trachoma-endemic area, mass distribution of oral azithromycin was associated with reduced mortality in children. TRIAL REGISTRATION clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00322972.

Integrating disease control strategies: Balancing water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrheal disease burden.

OBJECTIVES Although the burden of diarrheal disease resulting from inadequate water quality, sanitation practices, and hygiene remains high, there is little understanding of the integration of these environmental control strategies. We tested a modeling framework designed to capture the interdependent transmission pathways of enteric pathogens. METHODS We developed a household-level stochastic model accounting for 5 different transmission pathways. We estimated disease preventable through water treatment by comparing 2 scenarios: all households fully exposed to contaminated drinking water and all households receiving the water quality intervention. RESULTS We found that the benefits of a water quality intervention depend on sanitation and hygiene conditions. When sanitation conditions are poor, water quality improvements may have minimal impact regardless of amount of water contamination. If each transmission pathway alone is sufficient to maintain diarrheal disease, single-pathway interventions will have minimal benefit, and ultimately an intervention will be successful only if all sufficient pathways are eliminated. However, when 1 pathway is critical to maintaining the disease, public health efforts should focus on this critical pathway. CONCLUSIONS Our findings provide guidance in understanding how to best reduce and eliminate diarrheal disease through integrated control strategies.

Prevention and Control of Zika as a Mosquito-Borne and Sexually Transmitted Disease: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis

The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas poses a major global public health emergency. While ZIKV is transmitted from human to human by bites of Aedes mosquitoes, recent evidence indicates that ZIKV can also be transmitted via sexual contact with cases of sexually transmitted ZIKV reported in Argentina, Canada, Chile, France, Italy, New Zealand, Peru, Portugal, and the USA. Yet, the role of sexual transmission on the spread and control of ZIKV infection is not well-understood. We introduce a mathematical model to investigate the impact of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission on the spread and control of ZIKV and calibrate the model to ZIKV epidemic data from Brazil, Colombia, and El Salvador. Parameter estimates yielded a basic reproduction number 0 = 2.055 (95% CI: 0.523–6.300), in which the percentage contribution of sexual transmission is 3.044% (95% CI: 0.123–45.73). Our sensitivity analyses indicate that 0 is most sensitive to the biting rate and mortality rate of mosquitoes while sexual transmission increases the risk of infection and epidemic size and prolongs the outbreak. Prevention and control efforts against ZIKV should target both the mosquito-borne and sexual transmission routes.

Comparison of natamycin and voriconazole for the treatment of fungal keratitis.

OBJECTIVE To conduct a therapeutic exploratory clinical trial comparing clinical outcomes of treatment with topical natamycin vs topical voriconazole for fungal keratitis. METHODS The multicenter, double-masked, clinical trial included 120 patients with fungal keratitis at Aravind Eye Hospital in India who were randomized to receive either topical natamycin or topical voriconazole and either had repeated scraping of the epithelium or not. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The primary outcome was best spectacle-corrected visual acuity (BSCVA) at 3 months. Other outcomes included scar size, perforations, and a subanalysis of BSCVA at 3 months in patients with an enrollment visual acuity of 20/40 to 20/400. RESULTS Compared with those who received natamycin, voriconazole-treated patients had an approximately 1-line improvement in BSCVA at 3 months after adjusting for scraping in a multivariate regression model but the difference was not statistically significant (P = .29). Scar size at 3 months was slightly greater with voriconazole after adjusting for scraping (P = .48). Corneal perforations in the voriconazole group (10 of 60 patients) were not significantly different than in the natamycin-treated group (9 of 60 patients) (P >.99). Scraping was associated with worse BSCVA at 3 months after adjusting for drug (P = .06). Patients with baseline BSCVA of 20/40 to 20/400 showed a trend toward a 2-line improvement in visual acuity with voriconazole (P = .07). CONCLUSIONS Overall, there were no significant differences in visual acuity, scar size, and perforations between voriconazole- and natamycin-treated patients. There was a trend toward scraping being associated with worse outcomes. Application to Clinical Practice The benefit seen with voriconazole in the subgroup of patients with baseline visual acuity of 20/40 to 20/400 needs to be validated in a confirmatory clinical trial. Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00557362.

Melanopsin-dependent light avoidance in neonatal mice

Melanopsin-expressing, intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells (ipRGCs) form a light-sensitive system separate from rods and cones. Direct light stimulation of ipRGCs can regulate many nonimage-forming visual functions such as photoentrainment of circadian rhythms and pupil responses, and can intensify migraine headache in adults. In mice, ipRGCs are light responsive as early as the day of birth. In contrast, their eyelids do not open until 12–13 d after birth (P12–13), and light signaling from rods and cones does not begin until approximately P10. No physiological or behavioral function is established for ipRGCs in neonates before the onset of rod and cone signaling. Here we report that mouse pups as young as P6 will completely turn away from a light. Light-induced responses of ipRGCs could be readily recorded in retinas of pups younger than P9, and we found no evidence for rod- and cone-mediated visual signaling to the RGCs of these younger mice. These results confirm that negative phototaxis is evident before the onset of rod- and cone-mediated visual signaling, and well before the onset of image-forming vision. Negative phototaxis was absent in mice lacking melanopsin. We conclude that light activation of melanopsin ipRGCs is necessary and sufficient for negative phototaxis. These results strongly suggest that light activation of ipRGCs may regulate physiological functions such as sleep/wake cycles in preterm and neonatal infants.

Amplification dynamics: predicting the effect of HIV on tuberculosis outbreaks.

&NA; HIV affects the pathogenesis and the transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We used a discrete event simulation model to predict the potential impact of HIV on increasing the probability and the expected severity of tuberculosis outbreaks. Our predictions reveal that an HIV epidemic can significantly increase the frequency and severity of tuberculosis outbreaks, but that this amplification effect of HIV on tuberculosis outbreaks is very sensitive to the tuberculosis treatment rate. At moderate or low treatment rates, even a moderate HIV epidemic can cause the average size of tuberculosis outbreaks to almost double in comparison with the expected outbreak size when HIV is absent. However, we determined that the amplification effect of HIV can be substantially reduced if the treatment rate of tuberculosis is very high. We discuss the significant implications of these results for the global control of tuberculosis. Our results also reveal that occasionally a “normal‐virulence” strain of M. tuberculosis can be expected to generate a large outbreak. We discuss the implications of these results in understanding the virulence of M. tuberculosis and in the planned elimination of tuberculosis in the United States.