Travis Martin

Coauthorship and citation patterns in the Physical Review.

A large number of published studies have examined the properties of either networks of citation among scientific papers or networks of coauthorship among scientists. Here, using an extensive data set covering more than a century of physics papers published in the Physical Review, we study a hybrid coauthorship/citation network that combines the two, which we analyze to gain insight into the correlations and interactions between authorship and citation. Among other things, we investigate the extent to which individuals tend to cite themselves or their collaborators more than others, the extent to which they cite themselves or their collaborators more quickly after publication, and the extent to which they tend to return the favor of a citation from another scientist.

Localization and centrality in networks

Eigenvector centrality is a common measure of the importance of nodes in a network. Here we show that under common conditions the eigenvector centrality displays a localization transition that causes most of the weight of the centrality to concentrate on a small number of nodes in the network. In this regime the measure is no longer useful for distinguishing among the remaining nodes and its efficacy as a network metric is impaired. As a remedy, we propose an alternative centrality measure based on the nonbacktracking matrix, which gives results closely similar to the standard eigenvector centrality in dense networks where the latter is well behaved but avoids localization and gives useful results in regimes where the standard centrality fails.

Identification of core-periphery structure in networks.

Many networks can be usefully decomposed into a dense core plus an outlying, loosely connected periphery. Here we propose an algorithm for performing such a decomposition on empirical network data using methods of statistical inference. Our method fits a generative model of core-periphery structure to observed data using a combination of an expectation-maximization algorithm for calculating the parameters of the model and a belief propagation algorithm for calculating the decomposition itself. We find the method to be efficient, scaling easily to networks with a million or more nodes, and we test it on a range of networks, including real-world examples as well as computer-generated benchmarks, for which it successfully identifies known core-periphery structure with low error rate. We also demonstrate that the method is immune to the detectability transition observed in the related community detection problem, which prevents the detection of community structure when that structure is too weak. There is no such transition for core-periphery structure, which is detectable, albeit with some statistical error, no matter how weak it is.

Mathematical equations as executable models of mechanical systems

Cyber-physical systems comprise digital components that directly interact with a physical environment. Specifying the behavior desired of such systems requires analytical modeling of physical phenomena. Similarly, testing them requires simulation of continuous systems. While numerous tools support later stages of developing simulation codes, there is still a large gap between analytical modeling and building running simulators. This gap significantly impedes the ability of scientists and engineers to develop novel cyber-physical systems. We propose bridging this gap by automating the mapping from analytical models to simulation codes. Focusing on mechanical systems as an important class of physical systems, we study the form of analytical models that arise in this domain, along with the process by which domain experts map them to executable codes. We show that the key steps needed to automate this mapping are 1) a light-weight analysis to partially direct equations, 2) a binding-time analysis, and 3) symbolic differentiation. In addition to producing a prototype modeling environment, we highlight some limitations in the state of the art in tool support of simulation, and suggest ways in which some of these limitations could be overcome.

Exploring Limits to Prediction in Complex Social Systems

How predictable is success in complex social systems? In spite of a recent profusion of prediction studies that exploit online social and information network data, this question remains unanswered, in part because it has not been adequately specified. In this paper we attempt to clarify the question by presenting a simple stylized model of success that attributes prediction error to one of two generic sources: insufficiency of available data and/or models on the one hand; and inherent unpredictability of complex social systems on the other. We then use this model to motivate an illustrative empirical study of information cascade size prediction on Twitter. Despite an unprecedented volume of information about users, content, and past performance, our best performing models can explain less than half of the variance in cascade sizes. In turn, this result suggests that even with unlimited data predictive performance would be bounded well below deterministic accuracy. Finally, we explore this potential bound theoretically using simulations of a diffusion process on a random scale free network similar to Twitter. We show that although higher predictive power is possible in theory, such performance requires a homogeneous system and perfect ex-ante knowledge of it: even a small degree of uncertainty in estimating product quality or slight variation in quality across products leads to substantially more restrictive bounds on predictability. We conclude that realistic bounds on predictive accuracy are not dissimilar from those we have obtained empirically, and that such bounds for other complex social systems for which data is more difficult to obtain are likely even lower.

Structural inference for uncertain networks.

In the study of networked systems such as biological, technological, and social networks the available data are often uncertain. Rather than knowing the structure of a network exactly, we know the connections between nodes only with a certain probability. In this paper we develop methods for the analysis of such uncertain data, focusing particularly on the problem of community detection. We give a principled maximum-likelihood method for inferring community structure and demonstrate how the results can be used to make improved estimates of the true structure of the network. Using computer-generated benchmark networks we demonstrate that our methods are able to reconstruct known communities more accurately than previous approaches based on data thresholding. We also give an example application to the detection of communities in a protein-protein interaction network.

Characterizing strategic cascades on networks

Transmission of disease, spread of information and rumors, adoption of new products, and many other network phenomena can be fruitfully modeled as cascading processes, where actions chosen by nodes influence the subsequent behavior of neighbors in the network graph. Current literature on cascades tends to assume nodes choose myopically based on the state of choices already taken by other nodes. We examine the possibility of strategic choice, where agents representing nodes anticipate the choices of others who have not yet decided, and take into account their own influence on such choices. Our study employs the framework of Chierichetti et al. [2012], who (under assumption of myopic node behavior) investigate the scheduling of node decisions to promote cascades of product adoptions preferred by the scheduler. We show that when nodes behave strategically, outcomes can be extremely different. We exhibit cases where in the strategic setting 100% of agents adopt, but in the myopic setting only an arbitrarily small ε do. Conversely, we present cases where in the strategic setting 0% of agents adopt, but in the myopic setting (100-ε)% do, for any constant ε > 0. Additionally, we prove some properties of cascade processes with strategic agents, both in general and for particular classes of graphs.

Equitable random graphs.

Random graph models have played a dominant role in the theoretical study of networked systems. The Poisson random graph of Erdős and Rényi, in particular, as well as the so-called configuration model, have served as the starting point for numerous calculations. In this paper we describe another large class of random graph models, which we call equitable random graphs and which are flexible enough to represent networks with diverse degree distributions and many nontrivial types of structure, including community structure, bipartite structure, degree correlations, stratification, and others, yet are exactly solvable for a wide range of properties in the limit of large graph size, including percolation properties, complete spectral density, and the behavior of homogeneous dynamical systems, such as coupled oscillators or epidemic models.