Trevor Hinkley

A systems analysis of mutational effects in HIV-1 protease and reverse transcriptase

The development of a quantitative understanding of viral evolution and the fitness landscape in HIV-1 drug resistance is a formidable challenge given the large number of available drugs and drug resistance mutations. We analyzed a dataset measuring the in vitro fitness of 70,081 virus samples isolated from HIV-1 subtype B infected individuals undergoing routine drug resistance testing. We assayed virus samples for in vitro replicative capacity in the absence of drugs as well as in the presence of 15 individual drugs. We employed a generalized kernel ridge regression to estimate main fitness effects and epistatic interactions of 1,859 single amino acid variants found within the HIV-1 protease and reverse transcriptase sequences. Models including epistatic interactions predict an average of 54.8% of the variance in replicative capacity across the 16 different environments and substantially outperform models based on main fitness effects only. We find that the fitness landscape of HIV-1 protease and reverse transcriptase is characterized by strong epistasis.

Using Likelihood-Free Inference to Compare Evolutionary Dynamics of the Protein Networks of H. pylori and P. falciparum

Gene duplication with subsequent interaction divergence is one of the primary driving forces in the evolution of genetic systems. Yet little is known about the precise mechanisms and the role of duplication divergence in the evolution of protein networks from the prokaryote and eukaryote domains. We developed a novel, model-based approach for Bayesian inference on biological network data that centres on approximate Bayesian computation, or likelihood-free inference. Instead of computing the intractable likelihood of the protein network topology, our method summarizes key features of the network and, based on these, uses a MCMC algorithm to approximate the posterior distribution of the model parameters. This allowed us to reliably fit a flexible mixture model that captures hallmarks of evolution by gene duplication and subfunctionalization to protein interaction network data of Helicobacter pylori and Plasmodium falciparum. The 80% credible intervals for the duplication–divergence component are [0.64, 0.98] for H. pylori and [0.87, 0.99] for P. falciparum. The remaining parameter estimates are not inconsistent with sequence data. An extensive sensitivity analysis showed that incompleteness of PIN data does not largely affect the analysis of models of protein network evolution, and that the degree sequence alone barely captures the evolutionary footprints of protein networks relative to other statistics. Our likelihood-free inference approach enables a fully Bayesian analysis of a complex and highly stochastic system that is otherwise intractable at present. Modelling the evolutionary history of PIN data, it transpires that only the simultaneous analysis of several global aspects of protein networks enables credible and consistent inference to be made from available datasets. Our results indicate that gene duplication has played a larger part in the network evolution of the eukaryote than in the prokaryote, and suggests that single gene duplications with immediate divergence alone may explain more than 60% of biological network data in both domains.

Exploring the complexity of the HIV-1 fitness landscape.

Although fitness landscapes are central to evolutionary theory, so far no biologically realistic examples for large-scale fitness landscapes have been described. Most currently available biological examples are restricted to very few loci or alleles and therefore do not capture the high dimensionality characteristic of real fitness landscapes. Here we analyze large-scale fitness landscapes that are based on predictive models for in vitro replicative fitness of HIV-1. We find that these landscapes are characterized by large correlation lengths, considerable neutrality, and high ruggedness and that these properties depend only weakly on whether fitness is measured in the absence or presence of different antiretrovirals. Accordingly, adaptive processes on these landscapes depend sensitively on the initial conditions. While the relative extent to which mutations affect fitness on their own (main effects) or in combination with other mutations (epistasis) is a strong determinant of these properties, the fitness landscape of HIV-1 is considerably less rugged, less neutral, and more correlated than expected from the distribution of main effects and epistatic interactions alone. Overall this study confirms theoretical conjectures about the complexity of biological fitness landscapes and the importance of the high dimensionality of the genetic space in which adaptation takes place.

Evolution of oil droplets in a chemorobotic platform

Evolution, once the preserve of biology, has been widely emulated in software, while physically embodied systems that can evolve have been limited to electronic and robotic devices and have never been artificially implemented in populations of physically interacting chemical entities. Herein we present a liquid-handling robot built with the aim of investigating the properties of oil droplets as a function of composition via an automated evolutionary process. The robot makes the droplets by mixing four different compounds in different ratios and placing them in a Petri dish after which they are recorded using a camera and the behaviour of the droplets analysed using image recognition software to give a fitness value. In separate experiments, the fitness function discriminates based on movement, division and vibration over 21 cycles, giving successive fitness increases. Analysis and theoretical modelling of the data yields fitness landscapes analogous to the genotype–phenotype correlations found in biological evolution.

Development of a 3D printer using scanning projection stereolithography

We have developed a system for the rapid fabrication of low cost 3D devices and systems in the laboratory with micro-scale features yet cm-scale objects. Our system is inspired by maskless lithography, where a digital micromirror device (DMD) is used to project patterns with resolution up to 10 µm onto a layer of photoresist. Large area objects can be fabricated by stitching projected images over a 5cm2 area. The addition of a z-stage allows multiple layers to be stacked to create 3D objects, removing the need for any developing or etching steps but at the same time leading to true 3D devices which are robust, configurable and scalable. We demonstrate the applications of the system by printing a range of micro-scale objects as well as a fully functioning microfluidic droplet device and test its integrity by pumping dye through the channels.

Persistence of Transmitted HIV-1 Drug Resistance Mutations Associated with Fitness Costs and Viral Genetic Backgrounds

Transmission of drug-resistant pathogens presents an almost-universal challenge for fighting infectious diseases. Transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRM) can persist in the absence of drugs for considerable time. It is generally believed that differential TDRM-persistence is caused, at least partially, by variations in TDRM-fitness-costs. However, in vivo epidemiological evidence for the impact of fitness costs on TDRM-persistence is rare. Here, we studied the persistence of TDRM in HIV-1 using longitudinally-sampled nucleotide sequences from the Swiss-HIV-Cohort-Study (SHCS). All treatment-naïve individuals with TDRM at baseline were included. Persistence of TDRM was quantified via reversion rates (RR) determined with interval-censored survival models. Fitness costs of TDRM were estimated in the genetic background in which they occurred using a previously published and validated machine-learning algorithm (based on in vitro replicative capacities) and were included in the survival models as explanatory variables. In 857 sequential samples from 168 treatment-naïve patients, 17 TDRM were analyzed. RR varied substantially and ranged from 174.0/100-person-years;CI=[51.4, 588.8] (for 184V) to 2.7/100-person-years;[0.7, 10.9] (for 215D). RR increased significantly with fitness cost (increase by 1.6[1.3,2.0] per standard deviation of fitness costs). When subdividing fitness costs into the average fitness cost of a given mutation and the deviation from the average fitness cost of a mutation in a given genetic background, we found that both components were significantly associated with reversion-rates. Our results show that the substantial variations of TDRM persistence in the absence of drugs are associated with fitness-cost differences both among mutations and among different genetic backgrounds for the same mutation.

Assessing predicted HIV-1 replicative capacity in a clinical setting

HIV-1 replicative capacity (RC) provides a measure of within-host fitness and is determined in the context of phenotypic drug resistance testing. However it is unclear how these in-vitro measurements relate to in-vivo processes. Here we assess RCs in a clinical setting by combining a previously published machine-learning tool, which predicts RC values from partial pol sequences with genotypic and clinical data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. The machine-learning tool is based on a training set consisting of 65000 RC measurements paired with their corresponding partial pol sequences. We find that predicted RC values (pRCs) correlate significantly with the virus load measured in 2073 infected but drug naïve individuals. Furthermore, we find that, for 53 pairs of sequences, each pair sampled in the same infected individual, the pRC was significantly higher for the sequence sampled later in the infection and that the increase in pRC was also significantly correlated with the increase in plasma viral load and with the length of the time-interval between the sampling points. These findings indicate that selection within a patient favors the evolution of higher replicative capacities and that these in-vitro fitness measures are indicative of in-vivo HIV virus load.

Classic reaction kinetics can explain complex patterns of antibiotic action

Chemical reaction kinetics explain three different effects of drug-mediated bacterial killing. Antibiotics, pure and simple Antibiotics are powerful tools in fighting bacterial infection, but overuse and misuse are taking their tolls, leading to development of drug-resistant bacteria. Abel zur Wiesch et al. now report that simple chemical binding kinetics can explain three effects of antibiotics previously considered to have different causes: post-antibiotic growth suppression, density-dependent antibiotic effects, and persister cell formation. They report a theoretical model that links chemical reaction kinetics to bacterial population biology and validate this model both experimentally and with data from a tuberculosis clinical trial. This model may help optimize dosing and aid rational design of antibiotic treatment strategies. Finding optimal dosing strategies for treating bacterial infections is extremely difficult, and improving therapy requires costly and time-intensive experiments. To date, an incomplete mechanistic understanding of drug effects has limited our ability to make accurate quantitative predictions of drug-mediated bacterial killing and impeded the rational design of antibiotic treatment strategies. Three poorly understood phenomena complicate predictions of antibiotic activity: post-antibiotic growth suppression, density-dependent antibiotic effects, and persister cell formation. We show that chemical binding kinetics alone are sufficient to explain these three phenomena, using single-cell data and time-kill curves of Escherichia coli and Vibrio cholerae exposed to a variety of antibiotics in combination with a theoretical model that links chemical reaction kinetics to bacterial population biology. Our model reproduces existing observations, has a high predictive power across different experimental setups (R2 = 0.86), and makes several testable predictions, which we verified in new experiments and by analyzing published data from a clinical trial on tuberculosis therapy. Although a variety of biological mechanisms have previously been invoked to explain post-antibiotic growth suppression, density-dependent antibiotic effects, and especially persister cell formation, our findings reveal that a simple model that considers only binding kinetics provides a parsimonious and unifying explanation for these three complex, phenotypically distinct behaviours. Current antibiotic and other chemotherapeutic regimens are often based on trial and error or expert opinion. Our “chemical reaction kinetics”–based approach may inform new strategies, which are based on rational design.

Recombination Accelerates Adaptation on a Large-Scale Empirical Fitness Landscape in HIV-1

Recombination has the potential to facilitate adaptation. In spite of the substantial body of theory on the impact of recombination on the evolutionary dynamics of adapting populations, empirical evidence to test these theories is still scarce. We examined the effect of recombination on adaptation on a large-scale empirical fitness landscape in HIV-1 based on in vitro fitness measurements. Our results indicate that recombination substantially increases the rate of adaptation under a wide range of parameter values for population size, mutation rate and recombination rate. The accelerating effect of recombination is stronger for intermediate mutation rates but increases in a monotonic way with the recombination rates and population sizes that we examined. We also found that both fitness effects of individual mutations and epistatic fitness interactions cause recombination to accelerate adaptation. The estimated epistasis in the adapting populations is significantly negative. Our results highlight the importance of recombination in the evolution of HIV-I.

Estimating the fitness cost of escape from HLA presentation in HIV-1 protease and reverse transcriptase.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1) is, like most pathogens, under selective pressure to escape the immune system of its host. In particular, HIV-1 can avoid recognition by cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) by altering the binding affinity of viral peptides to human leukocyte antigen (HLA) molecules, the role of which is to present those peptides to the immune system. It is generally assumed that HLA escape mutations carry a replicative fitness cost, but these costs have not been quantified. In this study, we assess the replicative cost of mutations which are likely to escape presentation by HLA molecules in the region of HIV-1 protease and reverse transcriptase. Specifically, we combine computational approaches for prediction of in vitro replicative fitness and peptide binding affinity to HLA molecules. We find that mutations which impair binding to HLA-A molecules tend to have lower in vitro replicative fitness than mutations which do not impair binding to HLA-A molecules, suggesting that HLA-A escape mutations carry higher fitness costs than non-escape mutations. We argue that the association between fitness and HLA-A binding impairment is probably due to an intrinsic cost of escape from HLA-A molecules, and these costs are particularly strong for HLA-A alleles associated with efficient virus control. Counter-intuitively, we do not observe a significant effect in the case of HLA-B, but, as discussed, this does not argue against the relevance of HLA-B in virus control. Overall, this article points to the intriguing possibility that HLA-A molecules preferentially target more conserved regions of HIV-1, emphasizing the importance of HLA-A genes in the evolution of HIV-1 and RNA viruses in general.