Trevor Moffiet

Global trends and projections for tobacco use, 1990–2025: an analysis of smoking indicators from the WHO Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control

BACKGROUND Countries have agreed on reduction targets for tobacco smoking stipulated in the WHO global monitoring framework, for achievement by 2025. In an analysis of data for tobacco smoking prevalence from nationally representative survey data, we aimed to provide comprehensive estimates of recent trends in tobacco smoking, projections for future tobacco smoking, and country-level estimates of probabilities of achieving tobacco smoking targets. METHODS We used a Bayesian hierarchical meta-regression modelling approach using data from the WHO Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control to assess trends from 1990 to 2010 and made projections up to 2025 for current tobacco smoking, daily tobacco smoking, current cigarette smoking, and daily cigarette smoking for 173 countries for men and 178 countries for women. Modelling was implemented in Python with DisMod-MR and PyMC. We estimated trends in country-specific prevalence of tobacco use, projections for future tobacco use, and probabilities for decreased tobacco use, increased tobacco use, and achievement of targets for tobacco control from posterior distributions. FINDINGS During the most recent decade (2000-10), the prevalence of tobacco smoking in men fell in 125 (72%) countries, and in women fell in 156 (88%) countries. If these trends continue, only 37 (21%) countries are on track to achieve their targets for men and 88 (49%) are on track for women, and there would be an estimated 1·1 billion current tobacco smokers (95% credible interval 700 million to 1·6 billion) in 2025. Rapid increases are predicted in Africa for men and in the eastern Mediterranean for both men and women, suggesting the need for enhanced measures for tobacco control in these regions. INTERPRETATION Our findings show that striking between-country disparities in tobacco use would persist in 2025, with many countries not on track to achieve tobacco control targets and several low-income and middle-income countries at risk of worsening tobacco epidemics if these trends remain unchanged. Immediate, effective, and sustained action is necessary to attain and maintain desirable trajectories for tobacco control and achieve global convergence towards elimination of tobacco use. FUNDING Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan; Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports and Technology, Japan; Department of Health, Australia; Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Prediction and validation of foliage projective cover from Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-7 ETM+ imagery

The detection of long term trends in woody vegetation in Queensland, Australia, from the Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-7 ETM+ sensors requires the automated prediction of overstorey foliage projective cover (FPC) from a large volume of Landsat imagery. This paper presents a comparison of parametric (Multiple Linear Regression, Generalized Linear Models) and machine learning (Random Forests, Support Vector Machines) regression models for predicting overstorey FPC from Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-7 ETM+ imagery. Estimates of overstorey FPC were derived from field measured stand basal area (RMSE 7.26%) for calibration of the regression models. Independent estimates of overstorey FPC were derived from field and airborne LiDAR (RMSE 5.34%) surveys for validation of model predictions. The airborne LiDAR-derived estimates of overstorey FPC enabled the bias and variance of model predictions to be quantified in regional areas. The results showed all the parametric and machine learning models had similar prediction errors (RMSE < 10%), but the machine learning models had less bias than the parametric models at greater than ~60% overstorey FPC. All models showed greater than 10% bias in plant communities with high herbaceous or understorey FPC. The results of this work indicate that use of overstorey FPC products derived from Landsat-5 TM or Landsat-7 ETM+ data in Queensland using any of the regression models requires the assumption of senescent or absent herbaceous foliage at the time of image acquisition.

Evaluation of Different Topographic Corrections for Landsat TM Data by Prediction of Foliage Projective Cover (FPC) in Topographically Complex Landscapes

The reflected radiance in topographically complex areas is severely affected by variations in topography; thus, topographic correction is considered a necessary pre-processing step when retrieving biophysical variables from these images. We assessed the performance of five topographic corrections: (i) C correction (C), (ii) Minnaert, (iii) Sun Canopy Sensor (SCS), (iv) SCS + C and (v) the Processing Scheme for Standardised Surface Reflectance (PSSSR) on the Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) reflectance in the context of prediction of Foliage Projective Cover (FPC) in hilly landscapes in north-eastern Australia. The performance of topographic corrections on the TM reflectance was assessed by (i) visual comparison and (ii) statistically comparing TM predicted FPC with ground measured FPC and LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging)-derived FPC estimates. In the majority of cases, the PSSSR method performed best in terms of eliminating topographic effects, providing the best relationship and lowest residual error when comparing ground measured FPC and LiDAR FPC with TM predicted FPC. The Minnaert, C and SCS + C showed the poorest performance. Finally, the use of TM surface reflectance, which includes atmospheric correction and broad Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) effects, seemed to account for most topographic variation when predicting biophysical variables, such as FPC.

A statistical study on the combined effects of wall thermal mass and thermal resistance on internal air temperatures

Statistical analyses are important for real-world validation of theoretical model predictions. In this article, a statistical analysis of real data shows empirically how thermal resistance, thermal mass, building design, season and external air temperature collectively affect indoor air temperature. A simple, four-point, diurnal, temperature-by-time profile is used to summarise daily thermal performance and is used as the response variable for the analysis of performance. The findings from the statistical analysis imply that, at least for moderate climates, the best performing construction/design will be one in which insulation and thermal mass arrangements can be dynamically altered to suit weather and season.