Tri Widodo

Market Dynamics in the EU, NAFTA, North East Asia and ASEAN: the Method of Constant Market Shares (CMS) Analysis

One of the main aims of the regionalism and economic integration is to encourage export performance, especially intra-regional trade. The Constant Market Shares (CMS) method is commonly to examine empirically the countries’ export performance. This paper is addressed to examine the regions’ export performance by applying the CMS method. Firstly, this paper presents the developments of the method. Combining versions of the method by Leamer and Stern (1970), Richardson (1971a, 1971b) and Fagerberg and Sollie (1987), this paper comes up with another version of the method which, the competitive effect is explicitly extended. Second, the new version is then applied to analyze the dynamic markets of some regions (the EU, NAFTA, North East Asia and ASEAN) for the period 1980-2006. This paper concludes that the proliferation of regionalism and economic integrations in the beginning 1990-s caused the change in trade pattern. However, the change in trade pattern only happened in the short term.

Impacts of Donald Trump’s Tariff Increase against China on Global Economy: Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Model

Abstract Donald Trump’s presidential campaign contains several trade protectionism plans. This paper aims to analyze possible global impact of United States’ plan to impose import tariff increase against China. The GTAP model is implemented. The simulations present possible short-run effects of full-protection and manufacturing-only protection with appropriate retaliation response from China. The policy might lead to GDP, terms-of-trade, and welfare decline in United States and China; and an increase in trade balance for United States. Trade diversion pattern is observed in the simulation results, predicting shrinking bilateral trade between the two countries and increasing export toward their third trading partners.

Dynamics of Trade Specialization in Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

This paper examines the dynamics of trade specialization in the MENA region and countries for the period 2000 and 2010. An econometric model, Wald test, and the Spearman’s rank correlation are applied. By both, industry and country group classifications analysis, all countries in the MENA region have shown despecialization with different speed, where Qatar has perfect of specialization and Tunisia has slowest one.

THE DIVERSITY OF ECOTOURISM POTENTIALS IN KELIMUTU NATIONAL PARK OF ENDE REGENCY

Natural tourist destination management plays a crucial role in materializing three important aspects, namely conservation, participation, and education. As a tourist destination, Kelimutu National Park, possessing a big ecosystem potential, tourist and cultural potentials, is expected to provide economy, culture, and conservation impacts on the society surrounding Kelimutu National Park. The problem of this study is how the variety of ecotourism potential in Kelimutu National Park is able to prosper the surrounding society. To answer this question, the definition of ecotourism, national park, national park ecotourism, and ecotourism potential need to be understood. Several methods used in answering the problems of the study are finding out the location of Kelimutu National Park, collecting qualitative data by conducting library research and participatory observation. The results were conceptually described, supported by tables and pictures.

Symbolic participation in community-based tourism in Kelimutu National Park, Ende, East Nusa Tenggara

Community participation in tourism development has been received a lot of attention. A research with qualitative and quantitative combination has performed to describe the community participation in ecotourism development in Kelimutu National Park, East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. This research involves 362 respondent and 36 informants to describe the community participation in ecotourism program. This research shows that community participation was implemented in symbolic participation form. Community involvement practically only used as a conditions to get program approval. As a result, the majority of local community (48%) fell less involved in ecotourism development, especially in natural resources usage. Respondents has less concern to support attraction, accessibility and amenity preservation (49.2%) of tourism. It seems to be related to the respondent’s conditions, in which respondent state tourism in Kelimutu not contribute to the society prosperity. Since there are significant impacts of symbolic community participation, there are important to perform more strategy and approach to increase the participation level of the community in ecotourism program. The synergy among stakeholder to increase the community-based ecotourism with active community participation was needed.

LABOUR FORCE EFFECTS TO CURRENT ACCOUNT MOVEMENT OF ASEAN + 6 COUNTRIES

Abstract Heckscher-Ohlin-Mundell framework suggests that if a country has unexpectedly increased the permanent labour force, there will be a change in the production structure. Increases in the relative proportion of labour-intensive product demand occur and, hence, decrease the need for investment relative to domestic saving, and encourage the current account surplus. This paper tries to fill the empirical studies gap on the effects of the labour force, especially its utilization in the data panel of ASEAN + 6 countries using the generalized method of moments (GMM) used to capture the unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity across countries that often arise in a panel data model. The estimation result shows that the labour force has an asymmetric shock and it only affects the country of origin, even when the financial institution deepening as a control variable is included. The analysis also indicates that labour regulations in these countries tend to be rigid because the speed with which the current account adjusts is relatively slow.

Comparative advantage dynamism of Indonesian export products

Classical international trade theory predicts if a country relatively rich in labor compared to capital will tend to specialize in labor-intensive industries to be exchanged with capital-intensive products produced by developed countries in the international market. This comparative advantage then regarded as a static character. The developments of new theory do relaxation on assumption of international capital flows, which in turn allows the changes in the industrial structure of a country. Countries that have a comparative advantage in labor-intensive industries can move into a country structured capital-intensive industry if the composition of the products produced in that country are more capital intensive, thus attract more international capital flows. Therefore, the nature of the comparative advantages of a country should be more dynamic, rather than static. As a country that has large populations, Indonesia will tends to specialize in products that are labor intensive. Indonesian industrial classification shows if the compositions of Indonesia’s industries are labor-intensive. There are about fifteen industries with high comparative advantage and all of them are labor intensive industries. Meanwhile all capital intensive industries are included in low comparative advantage products. However, some of capital intensive products indicate tend to have high comparative advantage. It shows if Indonesian industry specialization is unstable. This paper analyzes closer on Indonesian export products to determine whether there is a change in Indonesian industrial structure. Trend of the median value, standard deviation and skewness coefficient comparative advantage of Indonesia’s export products use to see the RSCA distribution. Some common patterns that appear from the chart are the difference between the comparative advantage of Indonesia’s industrial products tend to decline over time. If we observed specifically each industry, both labor-intensive and capital-intensive showed an increase in comparative advantage. Different condition is the trend of the two standard deviations. Standard deviation capital-intensive industrial products showed an upward trend. This indicates if the increased specialization in several industry groups, while other industry groups are relatively fixed or may even decrease. Estimation using Spearman’s rank correlation shows if there has been a shift in the pattern of comparative advantage of Indonesia’s export products. An industry which at the beginning has comparative advantage can be shifted into industries that do not have the advantage, and vice versa. When Indonesian industry divided into capital-intensive industry and labor intensive, it can be seen if the shift in capital-intensive industry is more dynamics than the labor-intensive one.

Purchasing Power Parity And Productivity-Bias Hypothesis

Abstract This paper examines the purchasing power parity (PPP) theorem adjusted the “productivity-bias hypothesis” or the Balassa-Samuelson effect (Balassa, 1964; Samuelson, 1964) for eight East Asian countries including Japan, New Industrializing Economies (NIE-3: Singapore; Hong Kong, China; and Korea), the ASEAN-3 (Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This paper applies three methods of analysis i.e. univariate time series, multivariate regression and Johansen multivariate cointegration. The three methods give the same conclusions. First, the PPP hypothesis does not hold in the case of the eight East Asian countries. Second, non-traded goods give significant contribution on the PPP deviation. It is confirmed by the existence of Balassa-Samuelson effect.