Troy Butler

A Measure-Theoretic Computational Method for Inverse Sensitivity Problems I: Method and Analysis

We consider the inverse sensitivity analysis problem of quantifying the uncertainty of inputs to a deterministic map given specified uncertainty in a linear functional of the output of the map. This is a version of the model calibration or parameter estimation problem for a deterministic map. We assume that the uncertainty in the quantity of interest is represented by a random variable with a given distribution, and we use the law of total probability to express the inverse problem for the corresponding probability measure on the input space. Assuming that the map from the input space to the quantity of interest is smooth, we solve the generally ill-posed inverse problem by using the implicit function theorem to derive a method for approximating the set-valued inverse that provides an approximate quotient space representation of the input space. We then derive an efficient computational approach to compute a measure theoretic approximation of the probability measure on the input space imparted by the approximate set-valued inverse that solves the inverse problem.

A Computational Measure Theoretic Approach to Inverse Sensitivity Problems II: A Posteriori Error Analysis

In part one of this paper [T. Butler and D. Estep, SIAM J. Numer. Anal., to appear], we develop and analyze a numerical method to solve a probabilistic inverse sensitivity analysis problem for a smooth deterministic map assuming that the map can be evaluated exactly. In this paper, we treat the situation in which the output of the map is determined implicitly and is difficult and/or expensive to evaluate, e.g., requiring the solution of a differential equation, and hence the output of the map is approximated numerically. The main goal is an a posteriori error estimate that can be used to evaluate the accuracy of the computed distribution solving the inverse problem, taking into account all sources of statistical and numerical deterministic errors. We present a general analysis for the method and then apply the analysis to the case of a map determined by the solution of an initial value problem.

Data Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting

AbstractAccurate, real-time forecasting of coastal inundation due to hurricanes and tropical storms is a challenging computational problem requiring high-fidelity forward models of currents and water levels driven by hurricane-force winds. Despite best efforts in computational modeling there will always be uncertainty in storm surge forecasts. In recent years, there has been significant instrumentation located along the coastal United States for the purpose of collecting data—specifically wind, water levels, and wave heights—during these extreme events. This type of data, if available in real time, could be used in a data assimilation framework to improve hurricane storm surge forecasts. In this paper a data assimilation methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the use of ensemble Kalman filters and the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) storm surge model is described. The singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter has been shown to be effective at producing accurate results for ocean models ...

A Posteriori Error Analysis of Stochastic Differential Equations Using Polynomial Chaos Expansions

We develop computable a posteriori error estimates for linear functionals of a solution to a general nonlinear stochastic differential equation with random model/source parameters. These error estimates are based on a variational analysis applied to stochastic Galerkin methods for forward and adjoint problems. The result is a representation for the error estimate as a polynomial in the random model/source parameter. The advantage of this method is that we use polynomial chaos representations for the forward and adjoint systems to cheaply produce error estimates by simple evaluation of a polynomial. By comparison, the typical method of producing such estimates requires repeated forward/adjoint solves for each new choice of random parameter. We present numerical examples showing that there is excellent agreement between these methods.

Improving short-range ensemble Kalman storm surge forecasting using robust adaptive inflation

This paper presents a robust ensemble filtering methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, which has been implemented in the framework of the H? filter. By design, an H? filter is more robust than the common Kalman filter in the sense that the estimation error in the H? filter has, in general, a finite growth rate with respect to the uncertainties in assimilation. The computational hydrodynamical model used in this study is the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model. The authors assimilate data obtained from Hurricanes Katrina and Ike as test cases. The results clearly show that the H?-based SEIK filter provides more accurate short-range forecasts of storm surge compared to recently reported data assimilation results resulting from the standard SEIK filter.

A Posteriori Error Analysis of Parameterized Linear Systems Using Spectral Methods

We develop computable a posteriori error estimates for the pointwise evaluation of linear functionals of a solution to a parameterized linear system of equations. These error estimates are based on a variational analysis applied to polynomial spectral methods for forward and adjoint problems. We also use this error estimate to define an improved linear functional and we prove that this improved functional converges at a much faster rate than the original linear functional given a pointwise convergence assumption on the forward and adjoint solutions. The advantage of this method is that we are able to use low order spectral representations for the forward and adjoint systems to cheaply produce linear functionals with the accuracy of a higher order spectral representation. The method presented in this paper also applies to the case where only the convergence of the spectral approximation to the adjoint solution is guaranteed. We present numerical examples showing that the error in this improved functional is often orders of magnitude smaller. We also demonstrate that in higher dimensions, the computational cost required to achieve a given accuracy is much lower using the improved linear functional.

A Measure-Theoretic Computational Method for Inverse Sensitivity Problems III: Multiple Quantities of Interest

We consider inverse problems for a deterministic model in which the dimension of the output quantities of interest computed from the model is smaller than the dimension of the input quantities for the model. In this case, the inverse problem admits set-valued solutions (equivalence classes of solutions). We devise a method for approximating a representation of the set-valued solutions in the parameter domain. We then consider a stochastic version of the inverse problem in which a probability distribution on the output quantities is specified. We construct a measure-theoretic formulation of the stochastic inverse problem, then develop the existence and structure of the solution using measure theory and the disintegration theorem. We also develop and analyze an approximate solution method for the stochastic inverse problem based on measure-theoretic techniques. We demonstrate the numerical implementation of the theory on a high-dimensional storm surge application where simulated noisy surge data from Hurric...

A Comparison of Ensemble Kalman Filters for Storm Surge Assimilation

ThisstudyevaluatesandcomparestheperformancesofseveralvariantsofthepopularensembleKalmanfilter for the assimilation of storm surge data with the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) model. Using meteorological data from Hurricane Ike to force the ADCIRC model on a domain including the Gulf of Mexico coastline, the authorsimplementandcomparethestandardstochasticensembleKalmanfilter(EnKF)andthreedeterministic square root EnKFs: the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all of these filters. The results from twin experiments suggest that the square root ensemble filters could lead to very comparable performances with appropriate tuning of inflation and localization, suggesting that practical implementation details are at least as important as the choice of the square root ensemble filter itself. These filters also perform reasonably well with a relatively small ensemble size, whereas the stochastic EnKF requires larger ensemble sizes to provide similar accuracy for forecasts of storm surge.

Definition and solution of a stochastic inverse problem for the Manning’s n parameter field in hydrodynamic models

The uncertainty in spatially heterogeneous Manning’s n fields is quantified using a novel formulation and numerical solution of stochastic inverse problems for physics-based models. The uncertainty is quantified in terms of a probability measure and the physics-based model considered here is the state-of-the-art ADCIRC model although the presented methodology applies to other hydrodynamic models. An accessible overview of the formulation and solution of the stochastic inverse problem in a mathematically rigorous framework based on measure theory is presented. Technical details that arise in practice by applying the framework to determine the Manning’s n parameter field in a shallow water equation model used for coastal hydrodynamics are presented and an efficient computational algorithm and open source software package are developed. A new notion of “condition” for the stochastic inverse problem is defined and analyzed as it relates to the computation of probabilities. This notion of condition is investigated to determine effective output quantities of interest of maximum water elevations to use for the inverse problem for the Manning’s n parameter and the effect on model predictions is analyzed.

A numerical method for solving a stochastic inverse problem for parameters

We review recent work (Briedt et al., 2011., 2012) on a new approach to the formulation and solution of the stochastic inverse parameter determination problem, i.e. determine the random variation of input parameters to a map that matches specified random variation in the output of the map, and then apply the various aspects of this method to the interesting Brusselator model. In this approach, the problem is formulated as an inverse problem for an integral equation using the Law of Total Probability. The solution method employs two steps: (1) we construct a systematic method for approximating set-valued inverse solutions and (2) we construct a computational approach to compute a measure-theoretic approximation of the probability measure on the input space imparted by the approximate set-valued inverse that solves the inverse problem. In addition to convergence analysis, we carry out an a posteriori error analysis on the computed probability distribution that takes into account all sources of stochastic and deterministic error.