Tse-min Lin

Vector Autoregression and the Study of Politics

In many respects political scientists agree about how best to model political processes. But we disagree about how to translate our theories into structural equations; each of us seems to have our own structural equation model of the same theory. This disagreement is a serious impediment to theory building. Vector autoregression (VAR) is a means of circumventing this problem. We explain the logic of this alternative modeling strategy and examine its relative virtues. In particular, VAR and the more familiar structural equation (SEQ) approaches are compared in terms of their epistemological underpinnings, empirical power, and usefulness in policy analysis. This comparison shows that the two modeling strategies are based on different conceptions of theory and of theory building and that, for the four-six variable systems we usually study, the choice between VAR and SEQ models presents a trade-off between accuracy of causal inference and quantitative precision, respectively. In addition, VAR models have the disadvantage of being unable to incorporate multiplicative and nonlinear relationships as easily as SEQ models. But VAR models have the advantage of providing a more complete treatment of policy endogeneity than SEQ models. These and other contrasts in the two modeling strategies are illustrated in a reanalysis of Alt and Chrystals (1983) permanent income model of government expenditure.

The Dynamics of the Partisan Gender Gap

Gender differences in vote choice, opinion, and party identification have become a common feature of the American political landscape. We examine the nature and causes of gender differences in partisanship using a time series approach. We show that gender differences are pervasive—existing outside of the context of specific elections or issues—and that they are a product of the interaction of societal conditions and politics. We find that from 1979 to 2000, the partisan gender gap has grown when the political climate moved in a conservative direction, the economy deteriorated, and the percentage of economically vulnerable, single women increased. The gender gap is likely to be a continual feature of the American political landscape: one that shapes everything from elite political behavior to election outcomes.

Equilibrium in Multicandidate Probabilistic Spatial Voting

This paper presents a multicandidate spatial model of probabilistic voting in which voter utility functions contain a random element specific to each candidate. The model assumes no abstentions, sincere voting, and the maximization of expected vote by each candidate. We derive a sufficient condition for concavity of the candidate expected vote function with which the existence of equilibrium is related to the degree of voter uncertainty. We show that, under concavity, convergent equilibrium exists at a “minimum-sum point” at which total distances from all voter ideal points are minimized. We then discuss the location of convergent equilibrium for various measures of distance. In our examples, computer analysis indicates that non-convergent equilibria are only locally stable and disappear as voter uncertainty increases.

Political Corruption and Presidential Elections, 1929–1992

We develop an aggregate model of the presidential vote based on the appropriation of political as well as economic information by a rational voter. We argue that, depending on historical context, information about political corruption is relevant to individual, and hence aggregate, vote choice. In preindustrial, community-oriented machine politics, the rational voter exchanged votes for particularistic benefits. As the social and political perspective shifted to a universalistic standard, information about corruption has become for him or her one of the criteria by which to evaluate the performance of the incumbent party. By including information about corruption alongside information about the economy, our model significantly improves upon conventional economic voting models in explaining post-New Deal presidential election outcomes.

“Neighborhood” Influence on the Formation of National Identity in Taiwan: Spatial Regression with Disjoint Neighborhoods

This article argues that, like fashion, national identity may be influenced by “neighbors” in a broadly defined sense. Inspired by models of collective choice, we hypothesize that, in Taiwan, a subethnically divided society facing a dilemma in its relationship with China, township residents and occupational peers are subject to mutual influence in the formation of their national identity. Methodologically, we compare spatial regression with dummy variable regression and hierarchical linear models. Based on spatial regression with survey data, our findings show that the formation of national identity in Taiwan indeed exhibits strong neighborhood influence.

Cross‐cutting issues and the consolidation of democracy in Taiwan

This article examines the cause of Taiwans recent successful democratic consolidation. It argues that cross‐cutting issues in the electoral process allow democratic systems to periodically generate new winners. The prospect of reasonable certainty to win gives different political groups, including previously anti‐system or semi‐loyal groups, incentives to adhere to the democratic rules of the game. This process contributed to the democratic consolidation in Taiwan. More specifically, the non‐mainstream faction of the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party, which initially opposed democratization, and the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) which wanted more radical constitutional and political reforms, came to accept the post‐transition democratic regime due to the emergence of new electoral issues. New issues surrounding corruption and socio‐economic reforms allowed both the non‐mainstream faction of the KMT and the DPP to advance their interests through the democratic electoral process.

Chapter 7 Markets and Politics: The 2000 Taiwanese Presidential Election

Economic issues loomed large in the March 2000 presidential election in Taiwan. These issues ranged from high-minded concerns about the future of bilateral trade relations with China to charges of economic manipulation leveled at the incumbent government. This paper seeks to lay bare crucial features of the redistributional consequences of this election and, in particular, tests the importance of China in explaining the sensitivity of the Taiwanese economy to the outcome of the election. Evidence from Taiwanese financial markets is offered of a strong China component to the economic consequences of the election. 1 Prepared for presentation at the 2001 Annual Meetings of the Midwest Political Science Association, April 19, 2000, Chicago. The authors thank Kuan Hung-chang for his research assistance.