Tsippy Lotan

Modeling the behavior of novice young drivers during the first year after licensure

Novice young drivers suffer from increased crash risk that translates into over-representation in road injuries. In order to effectively confront this problem, a better understanding of the driving behavior of novice young drivers and of its determinants is needed. This study analyzes the behavior of novice young drivers within a Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) program. Data on driving behavior of 62 novice drivers and their parents, who voluntarily participated in this experiment, were collected using in-vehicle data recorders that calculate compound risk indices as measures of the risk taking behavior of drivers. Data were used to estimate a negative binomial model to identify major determinants that affect the driving behavior of young drivers during the first year after licensure. Estimation results suggest that the risk taking behavior of young drivers is influenced by gender, sensation seeking tendency, driving behavior of their parents, amount of supervised driving and level of parental monitoring.

EFFECTS OF FAMILIARITY ON ROUTE CHOICE BEHAVIOR IN THE PRESENCE OF INFORMATION

Route choice behavior of familiar and unfamiliar drivers who use the same network is explored and compared. The data were collected using a driver simulator. The results obtained indicate larger homogeneity among the unfamiliar drivers in terms of their switching and diverting behavior, while familiar drivers demonstrate larger taste and preferences variations. Two choice models are implemented and compared: an approximate-reasoning based model and a random utility model. The two models produce comparable results and provide interesting insights into choice behavior of familiar and unfamiliar drivers. The question of when do unfamiliar drivers become familiar is addressed and several criteria for assessing familiarity are suggested.

A driving simulator and its application for modeling route choice in the presence of information

Abstract Models for route choice in the presence of information and motorist reaction to route guidance are currently under development. A major difficulty in developing such models is the lack of appropriate data for testing and calibration. This paper describes a PC-based driving simulator that can be used for collecting relevant data in a controlled environment. The simulator uses 2-D graphics, and consists of three main modules: network performance, guidance generation, and user interface. A flexible design permits the simulation of a wide variety of information systems on any network. The functionality of the driving simulator is demonstrated in a case study with data collected from a group of 10 subjects. The data was used to calibrate a new class of route choice models in the presence of information, which are based on concepts from fuzzy sets and approximate reasoning. The results indicate that until data collected on actual route choice behavior in the presence of information becomes available, appropriately designed driving simulators can become useful tools.

In-Vehicle Data Recorder for Evaluation of Driving Behavior and Safety

This paper describes the overall framework and components of an in-vehicle data recorder (IVDR) called DriveDiagnostics and presents results from a study to validate its performance. This IVDR has been designed to monitor and analyze driver behavior not only in crash or precrash events but also in normal driving situations. It records the movement of the vehicle and uses this information to indicate overall trip safety. A validation study involved 33 drivers whose vehicles were instrumented with the IVDR. The experiment first included a blind profiling stage in which drivers did not receive any feedback from the system; that stage was followed by a feedback stage in which drivers had access to personal web pages with the information recorded by the system. Data collected in the blind profiling stage was used to investigate the connection between driver safety indices as captured by the system and historic crash data. The results show significant correlations between the two data sets, suggesting that the ...

MODELS FOR ROUTE CHOICE BEHAVIOR IN THE PRESENCE OF INFORMATION USING CONCEPTS FROM FUZZY SET THEORY AND APPROXIMATE REASONING

The need for realistic route choice models has become essential in light of the on going research in the IVHS (Intelligent Vehicle Highway Systems) area, where drivers are required to incorporate verbal, visual and prescriptive information into their own perceptions while making route choices. We present a modeling framework for route choice in the presence of information based on concepts from fuzzy set theory, approximate reasoning and fuzzy control. We use fuzzy sets to model perceptions of network attributes, and traffic information provided by an information system. Rules of the form: “if ... then ...” are used to model the decision process, and to describe attitudes towards taking a specific route given (possibly vague) perceptions on network attributes. The rules are used as anchoring schemes for decisions, while the adjustment of the rules to changing conditions is done by an approximate reasoning mechanism. The suggested approach provides a route choice model in which the final choice is a combination of various considerations each of which captures a certain aspect of the final decision in a non-linear fashion. We demonstrate the methodology through a small example and discuss calibration issues and implementation difficulties.

Intrafamilial Transmission of Driving Behavior: Evidence from In-Vehicle Data Recorders

This study analyzes intrafamilial transmission of driving behavior by examining driving patterns of newly licensed young drivers and their family members as recorded over a period of 9 months using in-vehicle data recorders. Various maneuvers that the drivers undertook were identified in the measurements and used to compute risk indices for each driver during each month. The correlations between risk indices of drivers within the same family were studied. The results show intrafamilial transmission of driving behavior and reveal that this transmission evolves over time, as the behavior of young drivers is initially more closely related to that of their family members but gradually develops into a more differentiated personal driving style. Higher correlations are also found for specific maneuver types, such as braking and accelerating, and to a lesser extent for other maneuvers, such as speeding. The findings of the study indicate a need to carefully consider the role played by parents in the driving education of young adults and advising parents to exert control over their offsprings driving through positive modeling, and not only through well-designed commentary during driving.

Route choice in the presence of information using concepts from fuzzy control and approximate reasoning

The need for realistic route choice models has become essential in light of the ongoing research in the IVHS (Intelligent Vehicle Highway Systems) area, where drivers are required to incorporate verbal, visual and prescriptive information into their own perceptions while making route choices. We present a modeling framework for route choice in the presence of information based on concepts from fuzzy set theory, approximate reasoning and fuzzy control. We use linguistic variables to model perceptions about network attributes, and traffic information provided by an information system. Rules of the form: “if . . . then . . .” are used to model the decision process, and to describe attitudes towards taking a specific route given (possibly vague) perceptions on network attributes. The rules are used as anchoring schemes for decisions, while the adjustment of the rules to changing conditions is done by an approximate reasoning mechanism. We demonstrate the methodology through a small example and discuss calibra...

Evaluation of a program to enhance young drivers’ safety in Israel

Young drivers in Israel, as in other parts of the world, are involved in car crashes more than any other age group. The graduated driver licensing system in Israel requires that all new drivers be accompanied by an experienced driver whenever they drive for the first 3 months after obtaining a driving license. In an effort to make the accompanied driving phase more effective, a novel program which targets both young drivers and their parents was initiated in 2005. The program administers a personal meeting with the young driver and the accompanying parent scheduled for the beginning of the accompanied driving phase. In this meeting guidance is given regarding best practices for undertaking the accompanied driving, as well as tips for dealing with in-vehicle parent-teen dynamics. Through 2008, almost 130,000 families of young drivers have participated in the program. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the program, injury crash records of the young drivers who participated in the program were compared with those of all other young drivers that were licensed at the same time period. The results obtained indicate statistically significant lower crash records for young drivers that participated in the program. Limitations of the evaluation related to self-selection biases are discussed, and practical implications are suggested.

Free-Flow Travel Speed Analysis and Monitoring at the National Level Using Global Positioning System Measurements

Among the main factors affecting road crash injuries, speed is considered as a leading cause and contributing factor. There are numerous studies linking travel speeds and road crashes. Hence, an essential part of road safety plans and interventions is devoted to speed management. However, to manage speed, actual travel speeds have to be systematically and consistently monitored and analyzed. In this study, a system for the collection and analysis of free-flow travel speeds on the road network is presented, enabling speed monitoring at the nationwide level. The paper focuses on the collection and analysis of travel speeds on different road sections. Using the information gathered through advanced technologies combined with geographical information systems, a comprehensive speed database in space and time is provided allowing visual presentation and comparison of the results. This analysis can identify the road sections with significant excesses of travel speeds relative to the speed limits. It can also serve as a baseline to evaluate the impact of various counter-measures employed to reduce speeds.

MODELING DEFAULT BEHAVIOR IN THE PRESENCE OF INFORMATION AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE ROUTE CHOICE PROBLEM

A new approach for modeling default behavior is presented and applied to route choice behavior in the presence of information. It is based on the assumption that drivers follow their usual behavior pattern and modify it only if the information received differs substantially from their existing perceptions and knowledge. Default behavior is linked to the interactions between existing knowledge and new information. These interactions are modeled through measures of compatibility, and several measures are suggested and analyzed. The approximate‐reasoning model, which was earlier suggested for modeling discrete choices made in the presence of information, is adapted to handle default behavior. The model is briefly presented and its implementation and calibration are discussed. Default behavior is implemented by discounting existing knowledge when it does not agree with the new information, and by discounting the new information when it does not significantly differ from existing knowledge. A small case study is conducted using a driver simulator to collect data from two types of drivers: familiar and unfamiliar. The results obtained provide interesting insights on the choice behavior of the sample population, and support a default type of behavior among the familiar drivers. ©1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.