Tsz-Kin Chung

The Link between FX Swaps and Currency Strength during the Credit Crisis of 2007-2008

This note analyses the impact of the global credit crisis on the FX swap market and discusses its potential implications. The turbulence in money markets has spilled over to FX swap markets amid a reappraisal of counterparty risks during the recent financial turmoil. We examine the situations of six currencies including the euro, the British pound, the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Hong Kong dollar and the Singapore dollar. We find that (i) the risk premiums have indeed gone in tandem with the spreads of money market rates over their corresponding overnight index swaps across the economies, a popular measure of potential banking insolvency; and (ii) the risk premiums bear a negative relationship with the strength of the spot rates of the respective currencies, which is consistent with the increased pressure in the swap markets.

Term-Structure Modelling at the Zero Lower Bound: Implications for Estimating the Forward Term Premium

Although the affine Gaussian term-structure model has been a workhorse model in term-structure modelling, it remains doubtful whether it is an appropriate model in a low interest rate environment because of its inability to preclude negative interest rates. This paper uses an alternative quadratic Gaussian-term structure model which is well known to be as tractable as the affine model and yet is suitable for interest rates close to zero. Compared with the quadratic model under the zero lower bound, we illustrate how the estimated term premium can be biased upward under the affine model. In contrast to the affine model, our numerical study shows that the quadratic model renders the estimated term premium less likely to be affected by the persistence of the data near the zero lower bound.

Chapter 4 The Link between FX Swaps and Currency Strength during the Credit Crisis of 2007–2008

This chapter analyses the impact of the global credit crisis on the money market and discusses its potential implications. The turbulence in money markets has spilled over to foreign exchange (FX)-swap markets amid a reappraisal of counterparty risks during the recent financial turmoil. We examine the situations of six currencies: the euro, the British pound, the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Hong Kong dollar, and the Singapore dollar. We find that (i) the risk premiums have indeed gone in tandem with the spreads of money market rates over their corresponding overnight index swaps across the economies, a popular measure of potential banking insolvency; and (ii) the risk premiums bear a negative relationship with the strength of the spot rates of the respective currencies, which is consistent with the increased pressure in the money and swap markets.