Tullio Gregori

An input-output analysis of the construction sector in highly developed economies

Using OECD input/output tables at current and constant prices, this paper analyses the performance of the construction sector of eight highly industrialized countries - Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Japan and the USA - in the 1970s and 1980s. First, the main characteristics of the data set with country and time coverage are briefly introduced. Then, a set of simple indicators is used for comparative purposes, namely to assess the construction sectors diminishing role in terms of share in gross output, value added and GNP. Analysis focuses also on technologies, with emphasis on the relative role of manufacturing and services inputs. Lastly, standard measures of linkages are used to determine the main sources of induced output that are created by the push and pull effects of the construction sector on the rest of the economy.

Regional development and construction in Italy: an input-output analysis, 1959-1992

Using two sets of input-output tables, this paper analyses the role of the construction sector in the North and South regions of Italy, from 1959 to 1992. As expected, the sector has had differing impacts on the two regional economies over the years. In the highly developed North its importance has been declining, similarly to the case of other highly developed countries. In the less developed South, instead, construction has a relatively higher propulsive role in the creation of goods and income. This role is significantly diminished since most of the construction inputs are imported. Some differences are reported in the sectors input and output profiles of the two regions. From the technological and organizational points of view, in the South construction projects appear to be less complex than those in the North.

Does volume follow share? The case of the Danish construction industry

In 1992, Ranko Bon argued that in highly developed countries the relatively declining economic importance of the construction industry is followed by the absolute decline of its output. The shrinking volume has implications with production capacity that, at a certain point of economic maturity, tends to be added at a slower rate than in the past. By using statistical data of the Danish construction industry, this study attempts to verify Bons proposition. The absolute decline of housing investments partially supports such a proposition. What is more, since the peak of the mid‐1970s, the addition rate to the capacity of the Danish economy has slowed down.

The changing input structure of the US construction industry: a longitudinal analysis

Eleven input–output tables are used for analysing the technological changes of the US construction industry from 1947 to 2002. Over the years, the industry has been characterized by a significant input shift that reflects the evolution of the USA towards services and away from a manufacturing‐based economy. This evolution is also reflected in the 1997 adoption of a new classification system of the US industries by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Changes are also found in analysing the direct requirements of two key sectors of the industry, residential and highway construction, during the 1967–1997 period. New materials and labour‐saving machinery have been some of the major drivers in the changing input structure of the two considered sectors. The study demonstrates the importance of using very long series of data and input–output tables with more than 400 industries for the further understanding of the secular changes of the construction industry and its constituent sectors.

An input-output analysis of the construction sector in emerging markets

Construction is a major industry in fast growing countries and plays a leading role in the process of economic development. Using input-output tables, the performance of the construction sector in six emerging countries (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa) is compared from 1995 to 2005. First, the construction performance in these developing economies, by using standard indicators based on value added, gross output, final demand and intermediate inputs, is investigated. Then, the similarity cosine index is introduced to assess structural change and differences in input expenditures between countries. This index is a useful tool for identifying input bundles that require a probing international comparison of construction performance.

Trade Collapses and Trade Slowdowns: Evidence from Some Central and Eastern European Countries

World trade suddenly plummeted in the last quarter of 2008 after the bankruptcy of Lehman brothers and the subsequent meltdown in financial markets. Even if the following recovery was impressive, trade growth is now noticeably below trend. The anaemic momentum in global export volume questions whether the financial crisis has permanently changed the trade landscape. In this paper, we address trade elasticities in some Central and Eastern European economies by estimating a standard import function equation. We employ a dynamic panel Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model with the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group estimator to cope with cross-sectional dependence. The model is fit on a sample of eight countries over the period 1995:q1–2017:q1. First, we estimate long-run import elasticities with respect to GDP and the relative import price. Then, we discriminate between booms and slowdowns. Results confirm imports respond differently over the business cycle.