Tuyen Quang Tran

Exports and profitability: a note from quantile regression approach

Studies of the linkage between exports and profitability often use mean regression approaches and focus only on European countries. Using a panel data quantile regression approach, this study analyses the linkage between export behaviour and profit growth in Vietnam. Using a panel dataset from 2005 to 2009, our results show an insignificant linkage between export status and firm profit growth when using OLS. However, when using a quantile approach, export participation is found to be positively related to profitability for those firms with high profit growth but negatively related for those firms with low profit growth. This might suggest that the productivity advantages of exporters with low profit growth are absorbed by costs relating to trading activities in overseas markets.

Nonfarm employment and household income among ethnic minorities in Vietnam

This study examines the determinants of nonfarm participation and the effect of nonfarm employment on household income among ethnic minorities in the Northwest Mountains, Vietnam. The logistic regression analysis shows that education and the availability of local enterprises or trade villages, notably among other factors, have a significantly increasing impact on the likelihood of taking up wage employment, while the presence of paved roads gives households more chance to engage in nonfarm self-employment. Using a propensity score matching analysis, the study found that households that participated in wage or nonfarm self-employment have higher levels of per capita income than those without nonfarm employment. The findings imply that nonfarm employment offers a pathway out of poverty for ethnic minorities.

A note on poverty among ethnic minorities in the Northwest region of Vietnam

This article is the first to investigate both community and household determinants of poverty among ethnic minorities in the Northwest region of Vietnam. Results of a fractional logit and a logit model show that fixed assets, education and off-farm employment, among other household factors, have a strongly reducing effect on both the intensity and incidence of poverty. Furthermore, some commune characteristics were found to be closely linked to poverty. Notably, the presence of means of transport and post offices significantly reduces both poverty intensity and incidence. However, other commune and household factors affect only poverty incidence or intensity but not both. Hence, a typical approach using a logit/probit model that only examined the determinants of poverty incidence did not adequately evaluate or even ignored important impacts of some factors on poverty intensity. We draw both socio-economic household and commune level implications for poverty alleviation in the study area.

Does rising import competition harm local firm productivity in less advanced economies? Evidence from the Vietnam's manufacturing sector

This paper examines whether rising import penetration has an effect on the productivity of domestic firms. The study uses data on a 10-year unbalanced panel of firms in the manufacturing sector in Vietnam from 2000 to 2009. Panel and instrumental variable methods are used to control firm heterogeneity and endogeneity of import penetration. We find statistically significant and negative effects of import competition on local firms’ productivity, but the effect in terms of magnitude is economically small. Further investigation shows no clear evidence of variations in the effects by firm size and technological level. However, we find that rising import penetration is associated with the likelihood of firm death.

Firm exporting and productivity: what if productivity is no longer a black box

ABSTRACT This paper uses Vietnamese firm-level data to examine the relationship between firm productivity and exporting. In particular, this paper shows that more productive firms are more likely than less productive firms to export, consistent with the extensive prior literature. However, this paper finds no evidence that exporting affects productivity, which can be decomposed into technical efficiency change, technological progress, and scale change. Thus, the findings support a large role of self-selection in accounting for export decision, but little gain from learning-by-exporting in the case of Vietnamese Small medium sized enterprises (SMEs). These findings imply that export promotion policies may not be effective unless accompanied by strategies to help SMEs become more productive.

Lost in Transition? Declining Returns to Education in Vietnam

Evidence exists of a fast increase in the returns to education in Vietnam in the 1990s and 2000s. However, there was a huge change in education policy in the mid-2000s, opening up opportunities for education providers to expand enrolment. This may lead to a decline in the returns to education in later years when the changes have generated sufficient effect. To provide up-to-date estimates of the returns, we re-visit the returns using updated large survey data up to 2014. We apply the OLS and Heckman selection estimators which can correct for selection bias and find that both estimators provide a consistent trend of the returns, which increased quickly up to the global financial crisis in 2008/2009 and then declined afterwards. This raises a question whether higher educated labour force is oversupplied.C’est demonstrable qu’il y a eu une augmentation rapide des rendements de l’éducation au Vietnam dans les années 1990 et 2000. Cependant, il y a eu un énorme changement dans la politique de l’éducation, en particulier l’ouverture des possibilités d’éducation au milieu des années 2000 : ce qui a eu comme effet que les fournisseurs d’éducation ont augmenté le chiffre d’inscriptions. Cela pourra conduire à une diminution des rendements de l’éducation dans les années suivantes, lorsque les changements auront généré un effet suffisant. Afin de fournir des estimations à jour des rendements, nous revisitons les résultats en utilisant des données mises à jour d’enquête à grande échelle jusqu’en 2014. Nous appliquons les estimateurs de sélections MCO et Heckman qui peuvent corriger les biais de sélections et constater que les deux estimateurs fournissent une tendance constante des rendements, qui ont augmenté rapidement jusqu’à la crise financière mondiale en 2008/2009, puis ont diminué par la suite. Cela soulève la question de savoir si la main d’œuvre plus scolarisée est surchargée.

Housing satisfaction and its correlates: a quantitative study among residents living in their own affordable apartments in urban Hanoi, Vietnam

ABSTRACT Using a novel dataset involving 450 respondents living in their own affordable apartments in urban Hanoi, this study examines the housing satisfaction of the respondents and its correlates. We find that housing satisfaction is positively associated with household income but negatively related to education. Interestingly, the study finds that residents borrowing from banks to buy a home are less satisfied with their home than their non-borrowing counterparts. We also find that respondents’ positive evaluation of features of their apartments, such as the design, construction quality and price, is strongly linked with housing satisfaction. In addition, the location of the house and quality of the environment in the area were found to be major factors affecting housing satisfaction.

Does rising import competition harm Vietnam’s local firm employment of the 2000s?

Abstract This study considers for the first time the role of rising import competition on employment in Vietnam. Using a time differenced and instrumental variables approach, our study shows that import competition results in employment contraction. Firms operating in industries that face greater import competition have reduced employment. We also find strong evidence of a negative impact of import competition for small and very small firms, as well as in the period before Vietnam’s World Trade Organization (WTO) accession. Our results also reveal that previous studies at the industry-level can provide biased estimates because of not controlling for the heterogeneity of firm characteristics.

Factors affecting the intensity of nonfarm participation among ethnic minorities in Northwest Mountains, Vietnam

Purpose - – Little econometric evidence exists on the determinants of nonfarm participation among ethnic minorities in Vietnam. The purpose of this paper is to examine the intensity of nonfarm participation and its correlates among ethnic minority households in Northwest Mountains – the poorest region of Vietnam. Design/methodology/approach - – Factors affecting the level of nonfarm participation were examined by using a fractional logit model. In addition, regression analysis using analysis of variance models were used to compare the mean of household characteristics and assets between households with and without nonfarm employment. Findings - – The study found that households depended heavily on agriculture for subsistence and their access to nonfarm employment is very limited. Households with nonfarm employment had much higher levels of education, income, assets and a much lower level of poverty than those without nonfarm participation. The intensity of nonfarm participation is positively associated with education levels, proportion of male working members and fixed assets but negatively correlated with the size of annual crop land and water surface for aquaculture. Also, the presence of nonfarm opportunities and paved roads in a commune increases the intensity of nonfarm participation for households living in that commune. Practical implications - – The findings suggest that any poverty alleviation policies should aim at improving the access of ethnic minorities to education and nonfarm job opportunities. Originality/value - – The study offers the first evidence of factors affecting the intensity of nonfarm participation among ethnic minorities in the study area.