Udomsak Wongchoti

Political Connection and Stock Returns: A Longitudinal Study

A stock market should display informational efficiency and, therefore, should appropriately reflect the value of political connections, if any value exists. Using a comprehensive data set that incorporates both obvious and less obvious political connections to firms in Thailand, we provide a longitudinal study which shows that higher realized stock returns are systematically associated with political connectedness. Consistent with the view that such a relationship provides economic rents, this finding is particularly prominent in more regulated industries. The politically connected premium is higher for higher level political connections and when the political bodies hold an equity stake in the firm.

Abnormal Returns in Gold and Silver Exchange Traded Funds

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are one of the fastest growing areas of financial markets and have significantly changed how investors construct their portfolios. We investigate the price efficiency of six commodity ETFs. Our most significant finding is that GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) have a small, but significant, risk-adjusted return at the 3% and 5% filter level, over a passive buy and hold. We also find that commodity EFTS have a low correlation with the S&P 500 and add to portfolio diversification.

Market Microstructure of Precious Metal ETFs

Precious metals have been popular since the global financial crisis. This has been reflected in both a rise in the price of physical metals, as well as in the use of precious metal exchange traded funds (ETFs). This article offers the first analysis of the dynamics of precious metal ETFs and interrelationships between the price of physical precious metals and their associated ETFs. Traders will be able to use our results to help trade or hedge gold and silver prices during periods of market volatility.

Australasian cash flow reporting regulation: value relevant?

Purpose – This paper provides empirical support for the introduction of cash flow disclosure regulation issued by Australasian accounting bodies, AASB and NZICA (formerly NZSA), between 1987 and 1992.Design/methodology/approach – The empirical analysis uses a long window event study format on a panel of 5,368 firm‐year observations between 1996 and 2005.Findings – The cash flow disclosures required in the regulation are associated with significant abnormal return responses. These effects are robust to the inclusion of other factors linked to abnormal returns such as movements in profitability, size and leverage. We also find support for the proposition that the cash flow effects are conditioned on the quality of the firm, as proxied by q. The market is better and more easily informed with the information required under the revised reporting regime.Research limitations/implications – The analysis would have been improved with better access to pre‐reform period data.Originality/value – There is no other stu...

Insider Trading Laws, Learning and Firm Valuation: A Global Perspective

We argue that a country’s institutional setting can affect investor learning and thereby stock valuation and market stability. For a global sample of firms we find that the speed with which analyst forecast errors decline and the speed with which M/B valuation attains its equilibrium value with progression in a firm’s age improves with active insider trading law enforcement. This effect is more pronounced among capital markets with better regulatory infrastructure based on World Governance Indicators (WGI) index. We also provide updated insider trading law enactment and enforcement dates (up to 2013) to Bhattacharya and Daouk (2002), of which their survey covered up to March 1999.

Aiming for Average: The Effect of Peer Standing on the Dynamic Process of Corporate Social Responsibility

We evidence a non-linear relationship between firm value and corporate social responsibility, adding to the mixed evidence on this relationship. We show that corporate social responsibility exhibits a dynamic process, which is largely dependent on a firm’s industry, relative standing amongst peers and the distinction between responsible and irresponsible behavior. Surprisingly, we find that responsible behavior could sometimes destroy firm value, while irresponsible behavior could sometimes increase firm value. Endogeneity is mitigated through a novel process that allows us to keep constant the endogeneity inherent in this field, examining corporate social responsibility’s effect on firm value separately.

Latent Accounting Growth, Corporate Financing Decisions, and Return Predictability

We analyse interactions of simultaneous shifts in comprehensive balance sheet items annually and identify common (latent) factors, which are consistent across years. Five factors are interpreted to reflect five major decisions in businesses: Financial Flexibility, Short-term Credit, Long-term Capital Investment, Convertible Debt Usage, and Preferred Stock Usage. We show that these factors are robust predictors of long-run stock returns and earn incremental returns beyond well-known asset pricing models and return anomalies. Consistent with the Q theory of investment, they create value up to three lags and are strong negative predictors of future cash flows and future earnings.

Vultures Circling Overhead: Does Short Selling Tell the Future?

This reports evidences a lead-lag relationship between securities which experience high levels of short-selling and those that do not. This is based on evidence that short-selling increases the speed with which information, especially negative information, is absorbed into prices. Previous literature mainly focuses on the presence of short-selling and its effect on prices. This study focuses on the magnitude of short-selling and finds a strong lead-lag relationship between returns of stocks that experience heavy short-selling compared to those that experience slight amounts. The relationship conforms to that of Chordia & Swaminthan’s (2000) speed adjustment hypothesis, in that it facilitates the imputation of common information. The relationship is strongest in small illiquid stocks where short-selling aids in the imputation of common information symmetrically and asymmetrically, and reduces as stocks become larger and more liquid. However in extremely volatile markets this relationship suffers. The relationship is robust to various factors including out of sample tests, accounting for size, and accounting for volume. Of note is the finding that short-selling aids in information imputation over-and-above the efficiency attributed to sophisticated investors. This indicates that market maker and uninformed short-sales add to the lead-lag effect.

R² and the Signalling Effect

If investors perceive dividend changes as providing signals about specific firms’ future prospects, it can be argued that the magnitude of stock price reactions to dividend change announcements will vary with the relative importance of the firms’ specific information in their return dynamics. We find that price reactions to dividend announcements are significantly stronger for stocks with lower levels of R2. This finding is more pronounced and more robust for dividend increase announcements. In terms of the real signal about earning prospects, we show that current year dividend changes are more correlated to future earnings among stocks with lower levels of R2. In this case the relationship is stronger for dividend decrease announcements and sensitive to firm size. Taken together, our results support the traditional view that dividend announcements signal information about firms’ prospect to the stock market. At the same time we highlight the complexity of such dynamics, especially the discrepancy between investors’ expectation and the real signal conveyed by the firms about their future prospects. Our empirical framework can be generalized to apply to other signalling effects in literature.