Ulf Lotzmann

Simulating protection rackets: a case study of the Sicilian Mafia

Protection racketeering groups are powerful, deeply entrenched in multiple societies across the globe, and they harm the societies and economies in which they operate in multiple ways. These reasons make their dynamics important to understand and an objective of both scientific and application-oriented interest. Legal and social norm-based approaches arguably play significant roles in influencing protection racket dynamics. We propose an agent-based simulation model, the Palermo Scenario, to enrich our understanding of these influences and to test the effect of different policies on protection racket dynamics. Our model integrates the legal and the social norm-based approaches and uses a complex normative agent architecture that enables the analysis of both agents’ behaviours and mental normative representations driving behaviour. We demonstrate the usefulness of the model and the benefits of using this complex normative architecture through a case study of the Sicilian Mafia.

Simulating the emergence of norms in different scenarios

This paper deals with EMIL-S, a software tool box which was designed during the EMIL project for the simulation of processes during which norms emerged in an agent society. This tool box implements the cognitive architecture of normative agents which was designed during the EMIL project which is also discussed in other papers in this issue. This implementation is described in necessary detail, and two examples of its application to several different scenarios are given, namely a scenario in which persons involved in micro finance are simulated and learn how to sanction free riders and how to learn from these sanctions, and a scenario in which simulated persons move through a simulated airport where they more often than not have to wait in queues and learn how to behave properly in queues.

DRAMS - A Declarative Rule-Based Agent Modelling System.

This paper presents a snapshot of the Declarative Rulebased Agent Modelling System (DRAMS), which is currently being developed with the goal of providing declarative rule engine functionality to agent-based simulation models. While the incentive for this effort is to allow stakeholders in policy modelling activities to better understand and, hence, to be more deeply involved in modelling and simulation of policy processes, the approach chosen appears to be valuable for many other areas. After a short literature review on similar approaches, the paper briefly outlines the FP7 project OCOPOMO, the context in which DRAMS is developed, in order to underpin some of the requirements and related design decisions presented subsequently. On the basis of this information, the software architecture is described in some detail, followed by a few notes about implementation and user interfaces. Finally, a small “toy” model illustrates the use of DRAMS.

Simulation Of Ethnic Conflicts In Former Jugoslavia.

The paper describes an agent-based model of the escalation of inner-state ethnic conflicts. Model assumptions are derived from the case of the former Yugoslavia. To comprehend the appearance of war crimes, the model refers to the concept of ethnic norms. The cognitive complexity of norm emergence is represented by using the simulation tool EMIL-S. The model consists of two agent classes: politicians, who enforce value orientations, and citizens, who form paramilitary militia. Simulation results confirm the feasibility of the theoretical approach.

Enhancing Agents With Normative Capabilities.

This paper describes the derivation of a software architecture (and its implementation called EMIL-S) from a logical normative agent architecture (called EMIL-A). After a short introduction into the theoretical background of agent-based normative social simulation, the paper focuses on intra-agent structures and processes. The pivotal element in this regard is a rulebased agent design with a corresponding “generalised intra-agent process” that involves decision making and learning capabilities. The resulting simulation dynamics are illustrated afterwards by means of an application sample where agents contribute to a Wikipedia community by writing, editing and discussing articles. Findings and material presented in the paper are part of the results achieved in the FP6 project EMIL (EMergence In the Loop: Simulating the two-way dynamics of norm innovation).

Simulating Normative Behaviour And Norm Formation Processes.

This paper describes the design of an agent model for simulating normative behaviour and norm formation processes. The model is based on a scientific theory of norm innovation, provided by the FP6 project EMIL (EMergence In the Loop). The main focus of the paper is the conversion of the theoretical framework towards a software implementation that can be applied for multiple simulation scenarios. A simple traffic scenario – where the traffic participants have to find rules to avoid collision incidents – serves as sample application.

From Text To Agents - Process Of Developing Evidence-Based Simulation Models.

Evidence-driven modelling approaches have gained attention in the computational social science community over the past couple of years. A number of research projects have dealt with this topic, and some of the results and experiences gathered in participating in two recent projects are presented in this paper. The main assertion of the paper is motivated by the finding that in order to be reproducibly successful with creating agent-based models from textual evidence, the development process needs to involve conceptual modelling in a well-structured way. This becomes more important if stakeholders should be taken along the modelling, and if due to the amount and kind of evidence to be regarded, appropriate analysis techniques have to be used. This paper aims to give some guidelines on how such an approach could be designed, which has been successfully applied in the realisation of a model about the collapse of a criminal network from the initial preparation of raw texts, through text analysis, conceptual and formal modelling, right up to the final presentation of simulation results.

Simulation and Interpretation: A Research Note on Utilizing QualitativeResearch in Agent-Based Simulation

The paper provides a summarizing review of our research on integrating qualitative methodologies in agentbased social simulation. This holds for both the development of behavioural rules for software agents as well as for interpreting simulation results. Specifically we rely on Grounded Theory, a well-established methodology in qualitative social research. Development of agent rules relies on open coding in a Grounded Theory approach. Interpreting simulation results in a coherent story line relies on theoretical coding in a Grounded Theory approach. This is demonstrated at two examples: the first example shows how qualitative textual data is transformed in a conceptual model for agent-based simulation. The second example shows how numerical simulation results reveal a story line of a case. For this purpose the concept of stylized facts is consulted.

Simulating Normative Agents

The article discusses the sociological background and the general features of a new simulation toolbox, which was explicitly designed to describe, design and simulate multi-agent systems whose component agents are endowed with the capability to exchange norm invocations and to internalize norms, to develop codes of norms and to change them. This toolbox takes into account that normative behavior can only originate in the interpretation of norm invocations and the deliberate decision to abide by the emerging norms-otherwise what emerges is only a transitory regularity. Agents designed with the help of this toolbox are endowed with initial rule sets that they can vary over time, according to the experience gained.

Modelling The Collapse Of A Criminal Network

Research activities aimed to understand the dynamics of criminal networks or organisations – like extortion racket systems – are of interest for criminologists and scientists in related fields, for practitioners from police and judiciary, as well as for political decision makers. This paper aims to contribute to this area by bringing together data analysis methods with conceptual modelling and simulation techniques employing normative agents. As an exemplary case the internal collapse of a criminal network is investigated. The outlined model development process involves qualitative data analysis of police files, specification of a conceptual model of the dynamics within the regarded criminal network, and the definition of intraagent processes for the agents used in the simulation model.