Ulla Tapaninen

A Cross-disciplinary Approach to Minimising the Risks of Maritime Transport in the Gulf of Finland

The maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland is predicted to rapidly increase in the near future, which increases the environmental risks both through direct environmental effects and by increasing the accident risk. This paper describes a multidisciplinary modelling approach, where, based on growth predictions, the maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland in the year 2015 is modelled and the accident risk, the direct environmental effects and the risk of environmental accidents are evaluated. Finally, the effects of national and international legislation and other management actions are modelled, to produce advice and support for governmental decision makers. In the modelling work, Bayesian Networks (BNs) are applied. The approach produces unique information on the accident risks and their effects separately for each marine route used, which enables efficient local risk control actions to be taken by the decision makers to decrease the probability of accidents.

Evaluation of maritime safety policy instruments

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of the current maritime safety policy system as a whole. It offers an overview of different kinds of policy instruments that are used to enhance maritime safety and the criteria for effective policy instruments. It provides a criticism and goes through the weak points of the current maritime safety policy system, and finally, the system is analyzed in the light of the criteria for effective policy. The paper is based on literary sources, mainly on articles published in academic journals. The conclusion of the article is that the development of individual policies will not greatly improve the current level of maritime safety, and more fundamental changes are needed in the governance of maritime safety.

The effectiveness of maritime safety policy instruments from the Finnish maritime experts' point of view -- case Gulf of Finland and prevention of an oil accident

Sea accidents are aimed to be prevented with an extensive amount of maritime safety regulation. The purpose of this paper is to present the findings of a questionnaire study that was targeted at Finnish maritime experts and addressed the question: how to prevent an oil accident in the Gulf of Finland. This study also includes a literature study about the problems of the current maritime safety regime. The findings of the questionnaire study are compared to the findings of the literature study. The questionnaire study showed that many kinds of policies have improved maritime safety, and they are needed to ensure maritime safety. For instance, ship construction, fairway maintenance, nautical charts and rules of the road at sea can be considered the cornerstones of maritime safety. However, the results ranked voluntary activities of companies as the most effective way to improve maritime safety in the future. Self-regulative approaches could solve some problems connected to more traditional policy-making.

Maritime traffic externalities in the Gulf of Finland until 2030

Abstract Maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland has grown remarkably during the 2000s. This increase has an impact on the environment and exposes it to risks. These problems should be controlled to guarantee sustainable development and the welfare of inhabitants in the area. A method for estimating the impact of ship-originated air emissions on the environment is to calculate their environmental externalities which are a part of the total marginal social costs of shipping. The internalization of externalities as a control method of transport would comply with the polluter pays principle and act as a fair traffic control method between transport modes. In this paper, we present the results of CO2, NOx, SOx and PM emissions originating from ships and their externalities in the Gulf of Finland up to 2015. The calculation algorithm developed for this study produces emission estimates per annum and converts them into externalities. We focus on passenger, tanker, general cargo, Ro-Ro, container and bulk vessel...

Accuracy of forecasting in a Nordic paper mill's supply chain: A case study

The article compares the accuracy of forecasted and actual supply chain cost and price factors in a Nordic paper mills sales to customers in two large European countries. Empirical longitudinal research data covering the years between 2002 and 2008 were obtained from a large integrated Finnish paper mill, and consisted of sales volumes, paper prices, variable costs, and transport costs. It was expected that the mill would be able to forecast demand, prices and costs accurately, but the empirical findings showed that the forecasts for paper price, demand, and cost varied from one market to another and were not highly accurate. In addition, the forecasting of gross margins seemed to be very inexact. It is concluded that there is a need for more reliable forecasting methods in the paper industry to anticipate economic development as paper demand and costs change.

Accuracy of the economic anticipating in a Nordic paper mill – a case study

The accuracy of anticipating is an important matter in a paper mills supply chain process. This study focuses on exploring with correlation analysis the differences between anticipatory and actual paper demand, price and cost variables regarding a Nordic paper mill. The empirical mill data includes anticipated and actual economic variables from the mill to the customers in fifteen European countries during 2002-2008, covering 90% of the mills sales. This kind of anticipatory-actual comparison has been examined scantily. The empirical findings show that forecasting on the mill level has been quite accurate, but between different markets there is much variation. The mill has not succeeded in estimating gross margins in many markets. This study states that a supply chain examination is worth integrating with the spatial context in order to yield valid results. Each market needs specific actions to be taken to ensure that anticipating is as accurate as possible.

Economics of a Nordic paper mill: case study

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to reveal how the prices, costs, and logistics develop in the case mill and how these variables correlate with profits, and finally to give suggestions for improvements.Design/methodology/approach – A typical Finnish paper mill is selected for the basis of the case study. The complete data for the mill for the years 2001 to 2007 at a monthly level are used. The data are obtained from the mills financial management system and transferred to Excel. Statistica 4.1 software is used to run the statistical correlation analyses. The results can be generalized with certain limitations to paper manufacturing located at a long distance from its customers.Findings – This paper gives an important insight into the economics of the Finnish paper industry. From theory‐building point of view, the empirical process data show that the variation in production lines is minimal, but there are important variations in paper deliveries. A lot can be gained in the logistics processes. Large...