Ulrich Kleinwechter

Comparing modeling approaches for assessing priorities in international agricultural research

This article examines how the estimated impacts of crop technologies vary with alternate methods and assumptions, and also discusses the implications of these differences for the design of studies to inform research prioritization. Drawing on international potato research, we show how foresight scenarios, realized by a multi-period global multi-commodity equilibrium model, can affect the estimated magnitudes of welfare impacts and the ranking of different potato research options, as opposed to the static, single-commodity, and country assumptions of the economic surplus model which is commonly used in priority setting studies. Our results suggestthatthe ranking oftechnolo- gies is driven by the data used for their specification and is not affected by the foresight scenario examined. However, net benefits vary significantly in each scenario and are greatly overestimated when impacts on non-target countries are ignored. We also argue that the validity of the singlecommodity assumption underpinning the economic surplus model is case-specific and depends on the interventions examined and on the objectives and criteria included in a priority setting study.

Climate change effects on pesticide usage reduction efforts: a case study in China

China has announced plans to stabilize its pesticide use by 2020. Yet, future climate change will possibly increase the difficulty of meeting this goal. This study uses econometric estimation to explore how climate impacts Chinese pesticide usage and subsequently to project the future implications of climate change on pesticide use. The results indicate that both atmospheric temperature and precipitation increase pesticide usage. Under current climate change projections, pesticide usage will rise by +1.1 to 2.5% by 2040, +2.4 to 9.1% by 2070, and +2.6 to 18.3% by 2100. Linearly extrapolating the results to 2020 yields an approximately 0.5 to 1.2% increase. Thus, to achieve stabilization, more severe actions are needed to address this increase. Possible actions to achieve the reductions needed include using better monitoring and early warning networks so as to permit early responses to climate change-stimulated increases, enhancing information dissemination, altering crop mix, and promoting nonchemical control means. Additionally, given that increased pesticide usage generally increases health and environmental damage, there may be a need to more widely disseminate safe application procedure information while also strengthening compliance with food safety regulations. Furthermore, pest control strategies will need to be capable of evolving as climate change proceeds. Globally, efforts could be made to (1) scale up agrometeorological services, especially in developing countries; (2) use international frameworks to better align the environmental and health standards in developing countries with those in developed countries; and (3) adapt integrated pest management practices to climate change, especially for fruits and vegetables.

Future Scenarios for Potato Demand, Supply and Trade in South America to 2030

This paper presents estimates for potato demand, supply and trade in South America to the year 2030 according to three scenarios: baseline, high demand and limited supply. The results highlight the importance of Brazil with its massive population and low per capita consumption of potato as a key driver of regional outcomes. According to the baseline and high demand scenarios, improved productivity in Andean countries such as Ecuador and Colombia will influence output and consumption increases in those locations as well. The potential adverse effects of the advent of climate change on the potato sector in more vulnerable growing areas in the region will result in much more modest increases in output in those locations according to the low supply scenario. While domestic potato marketing will continue to expand, foreign trade in potatoes remains small in absolute terms and as a percentage of national and sub-regional output. The findings call attention to opportunities for agribusiness initiatives in input markets as well as for both fresh and processed potato products for human consumption in the decades ahead.