Ulrik Kautsky

An ecosystem model of the environmental transport and fate of carbon-14 in a bay of the Baltic Sea, Sweden

The environmental transport and fate of a hypothetical discharge of radioactive 14C from the Swedish final repository for radioactive operational waste (SFR) was investigated using an ecosystem m ...

Using an Ecosystem Approach to complement protection schemes based on organism-level endpoints

Radiation protection goals for ecological resources are focussed on ecological structures and functions at population-, community-, and ecosystem-levels. The current approach to radiation safety for non-human biota relies on organism-level endpoints, and as such is not aligned with the stated overarching protection goals of international agencies. Exposure to stressors can trigger non-linear changes in ecosystem structure and function that cannot be predicted from effects on individual organisms. From the ecological sciences, we know that important interactive dynamics related to such emergent properties determine the flows of goods and services in ecological systems that human societies rely upon. A previous Task Group of the IUR (International Union of Radioecology) has presented the rationale for adding an Ecosystem Approach to the suite of tools available to manage radiation safety. In this paper, we summarize the arguments for an Ecosystem Approach and identify next steps and challenges ahead pertaining to developing and implementing a practical Ecosystem Approach to complement organism-level endpoints currently used in radiation safety.

Humans and Ecosystems Over the Coming Millennia: Overview of a Biosphere Assessment of Radioactive Waste Disposal in Sweden

This is an overview of the strategy used to describe the effects of a potential release from a radioactive waste repository on human exposure and future environments. It introduces a special issue of AMBIO, in which 13 articles show ways of understanding and characterizing the future. The study relies mainly on research performed in the context of a recent safety report concerning a repository for spent nuclear fuel in Sweden (the so-called SR-Site project). The development of a good understanding of on-site processes and acquisition of site-specific data facilitated the development of new approaches for assessment of surface ecosystems. A systematic and scientifically coherent methodology utilizes the understanding of the current spatial and temporal dynamics as an analog for future conditions. We conclude that future ecosystem can be inferred from a few variables and that this multidisciplinary approach is relevant in a much wider context than radioactive waste.

Model of the Long-Term Transport and Accumulation of Radionuclides in Future Landscapes

Assessments of radiological impacts on humans and other biota from potential releases to the biosphere from a deep geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel are associated with several challenges. Releases, if any, will likely occur in a far future and to an environment that will have experienced substantial transformations. Such releases would occur over very long periods during which environmental conditions will vary continuously due to climate change and ecosystem succession. Assessments of radiological impacts must therefore be based on simulations using models that can describe the transport and accumulation of radionuclides for a large variety of environmental conditions. In this paper we describe such a model and show examples of its application in a safety assessment, taking into account results from sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of the model predictions.

Ecological Stoichiometry and Multi-element Transfer in a Coastal Ecosystem

Energy (carbon) flows and element cycling are fundamental, interlinked principles explaining ecosystem processes. The element balance in components, interactions and processes in ecosystems (ecological stoichiometry; ES) has been used to study trophic dynamics and element cycling. This study extends ES beyond its usual limits of C, N, and P and examines the distribution and transfer of 48 elements in 16 components of a coastal ecosystem, using empirical and modeling approaches. Major differences in elemental composition were demonstrated between abiotic and biotic compartments and trophic levels due to differences in taxonomy and ecological function. Mass balance modeling for each element, based on carbon fluxes and element:C ratios, was satisfactory for 92.5% of all element–compartment combinations despite the complexity of the ecosystem model. Model imbalances could mostly be explained by ecological processes, such as increased element uptake during the spring algal bloom. Energy flows in ecosystems can thus realistically estimate element transfer in the environment, as modeled uptake is constrained by metabolic rates and elements available. The dataset also allowed us to examine one of the key concepts of ES, homeostasis, for more elements than is normally possible. The relative concentrations of elements in organisms compared to their resources did not provide support for the theory that autotrophs show weak homeostasis and showed that the strength of homeostasis by consumers depends on the type of element (for example, macroelement, trace element). Large-scale, multi-element ecosystem studies are essential to evaluate and advance the framework of ES and the importance of ecological processes.

Addressing ecological effects of radiation on populations and ecosystems to improve protection of the environment against radiation: Agreed statements from a Consensus Symposium.

This paper reports the output of a consensus symposium organized by the International Union of Radioecology in November 2015. The symposium gathered an academically diverse group of 30 scientists to consider the still debated ecological impact of radiation on populations and ecosystems. Stimulated by the Chernobyl and Fukushima disasters’ accidental contamination of the environment, there is increasing interest in developing environmental radiation protection frameworks. Scientific research conducted in a variety of laboratory and field settings has improved our knowledge of the effects of ionizing radiation on the environment. However, the results from such studies sometimes appear contradictory and there is disagreement about the implications for risk assessment. The Symposium discussions therefore focused on issues that might lead to different interpretations of the results, such as laboratory versus field approaches, organism versus population and ecosystemic inference strategies, dose estimation approaches and their significance under chronic exposure conditions. The participating scientists, from across the spectrum of disciplines and research areas, extending also beyond the traditional radioecology community, successfully developed a constructive spirit directed at understanding discrepancies. From the discussions, the group has derived seven consensus statements related to environmental protection against radiation, which are supplemented with some recommendations. Each of these statements is contextualized and discussed in view of contributing to the orientation and integration of future research, the results of which should yield better consensus on the ecological impact of radiation and consolidate suitable approaches for efficient radiological protection of the environment.

A Strategy for Describing the Biosphere at Candidate Sites for Repositories of Nuclear Waste: Linking Ecosystem and Landscape Modeling

Abstract To provide information necessary for a license application for a deep repository for spent nuclear fuel, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co. has started site investigations at two sites in Sweden. In this paper, we present a strategy to integrate site-specific ecosystem data into spatially explicit models needed for safety assessment studies and the environmental impact assessment. The site-specific description of ecosystems is developed by building discipline-specific models from primary data and by identifying interactions and stocks and flows of matter among functional units at the sites. The conceptual model is a helpful initial tool for defining properties needed to quantify system processes, which may reveal new interfaces between disciplines, providing a variety of new opportunities to enhance the understanding of the linkages between ecosystem characteristics and the functional properties of landscapes. This type of integrated ecosystem-landscape characterization model has an important role in forming the implementation of a safety assessment for a deep repository.

Radionuclide Transport and Uptake in Coastal Aquatic Ecosystems: A Comparison of a 3D Dynamic Model and a Compartment Model

In safety assessments of underground radioactive waste repositories, understanding radionuclide fate in ecosystems is necessary to determine the impacts of potential releases. Here, the reliability of two mechanistic models (the compartmental K-model and the 3D dynamic D-model) in describing the fate of radionuclides released into a Baltic Sea bay is tested. Both are based on ecosystem models that simulate the cycling of organic matter (carbon). Radionuclide transfer is linked to adsorption and flows of carbon in food chains. Accumulation of Th-230, Cs-135, and Ni-59 in biological compartments was comparable between the models and site measurements despite differences in temporal resolution, biological state variables, and partition coefficients. Both models provided confidence limits for their modeled concentration ratios, an improvement over models that only estimate means. The D-model enables estimates at high spatio-temporal resolution. The K-model, being coarser but faster, allows estimates centuries ahead. Future developments could integrate the two models to take advantage of their respective strengths.

Land Use and Food Intake of Future Inhabitants: Outlining a Representative Individual of the Most Exposed Group for Dose Assessment

The radiation doses to humans resulting from a potential release of radionuclides from a geological repository for long-lived waste are assessed over tens or even hundreds of thousands of years. Ingestion is expected to be the major exposure pathway, and the group with the highest exposures will be those that consume the most contaminated food. In this paper, we characterize the group of individuals with the highest exposures by considering the physical and biological characteristics of the contaminated area and human requirements for energy and nutrients. We then calculate intake rates based on land-use scenarios drawn from self-sustained communities spanning prehistoric times to an industrial-age agrarian culture. The approach is illustrated by simulating groundwater release of four radionuclides to an expected discharge area. We argue that the derived intake rates may serve as credible bounding cases when projected doses are evaluated for compliance with regulatory criteria.

Modeling the long-term transport and accumulation of radionuclides in the landscape for derivation of dose conversion factors.

Abstract To evaluate the radiological impact of potential releases to the biosphere from a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel, it is necessary to assess the long-term dynamics of the distribution of radionuclides in the environment. In this paper, we propose an approach for making prognoses of the distribution and fluxes of radionuclides released from the geosphere, in discharges of contaminated groundwater, to an evolving landscape. The biosphere changes during the temperate part (spanning approximately 20 000 years) of an interglacial period are handled by building biosphere models for the projected succession of situations. Radionuclide transport in the landscape is modeled dynamically with a series of interconnected radioecological models of those ecosystem types (sea, lake, running water, mire, agricultural land and forest) that occur at present, and are projected to occur in the future, in a candidate area for a geological repository in Sweden. The transformation between ecosystems is modeled as discrete events occurring every thousand years by substituting one model by another. Examples of predictions of the radionuclide distribution in the landscape are presented for several scenarios with discharge locations varying in time and space. The article also outlines an approach for estimating the exposure of man resulting from all possible reasonable uses of a potentially contaminated landscape, which was used for derivation of Landscape Dose Factors.