Umit Bulut

The influence of biomass energy consumption on CO2 emissions: a wavelet coherence approach

In terms of today, one may argue, throughout observations from energy literature papers, that (i) one of the main contributors of the global warming is carbon dioxide emissions, (ii) the fossil fuel energy usage greatly contributes to the carbon dioxide emissions, and (iii) the simulations from energy models attract the attention of policy makers to renewable energy as alternative energy source to mitigate the carbon dioxide emissions. Although there appears to be intensive renewable energy works in the related literature regarding renewables’ efficiency/impact on environmental quality, a researcher might still need to follow further studies to review the significance of renewables in the environment since (i) the existing seminal papers employ time series models and/or panel data models or some other statistical observation to detect the role of renewables in the environment and (ii) existing papers consider mostly aggregated renewable energy source rather than examining the major component(s) of aggregated renewables. This paper attempted to examine clearly the impact of biomass on carbon dioxide emissions in detail through time series and frequency analyses. Hence, the paper follows wavelet coherence analyses. The data covers the US monthly observations ranging from 1984:1 to 2015 for the variables of total energy carbon dioxide emissions, biomass energy consumption, coal consumption, petroleum consumption, and natural gas consumption. The paper thus, throughout wavelet coherence and wavelet partial coherence analyses, observes frequency properties as well as time series properties of relevant variables to reveal the possible significant influence of biomass usage on the emissions in the USA in both the short-term and the long-term cycles. The paper also reveals, finally, that the biomass consumption mitigates CO2 emissions in the long run cycles after the year 2005 in the USA.

The impacts of non-renewable and renewable energy on CO2 emissions in Turkey

As a result of great increases in CO2 emissions in the last few decades, many papers have examined the relationship between renewable energy and CO2 emissions in the energy economics literature, because as a clean energy source, renewable energy can reduce CO2 emissions and solve environmental problems stemming from increases in CO2 emissions. When one analyses these papers, he/she will observe that they employ fixed parameter estimation methods, and time-varying effects of non-renewable and renewable energy consumption/production on greenhouse gas emissions are ignored. In order to fulfil this gap in the literature, this paper examines the effects of non-renewable and renewable energy on CO2 emissions in Turkey over the period 1970–2013 by employing fixed parameter and time-varying parameter estimation methods. Estimation methods reveal that CO2 emissions are positively related to non-renewable energy and renewable energy in Turkey. Since policy makers expect renewable energy to decrease CO2 emissions, this paper argues that renewable energy is not able to satisfy the expectations of policy makers though fewer CO2 emissions arise through production of electricity using renewable sources. In conclusion, the paper argues that policy makers should implement long-term energy policies in Turkey.

Theory of Vulnerability and Remarkable Resilience of Tourism Demand to Climate Change: Evidence from the Mediterranean Basin

Climate change has become one of the most important challenges for societies around the world. However, the tourism industrys vulnerability and readiness to cope with climate change are unclear. This study advances the current body of knowledge by conceptualizing and empirically analyzing the effects of climate change on tourism demand using a vulnerability theoretical framework. Specifically, the effects of exposure; sensitivity; human well-being; and economic, social, and political development are tested on 17 countries located in the Mediterranean Basin during the period of 1995–2012. The findings of the study demonstrate the remarkable resilience and adaptive capacity of the tourism industry. Contrary to the notion that climate change will result in disastrous outcomes for the tourism industry in the Mediterranean Basin, improvements in overall well-being and progress in economic, social, and political developments seem to more than offset the decline in tourism demand due to climate change. The findings point to new theoretical and practical implications for coping with negative climatic changes and advance future academic research in the area.

Revisiting energy intensity convergence: new evidence from OECD countries

In this study, we examine the energy intensity convergence in OECD countries within the context of recent developments in unit root analysis by paying attention to modeling structural shifts. We collect the total primary energy consumption/GDP data of 27 OECD countries during the period 1980–2014. The findings indicate that controlling for shifts plays a crucial role, and different approximations in modeling breaks lead to changes in inferences. In conclusion, we present some policy proposals.

Financial Conditions Index as a Leading Indicator of Business Cycles in Turkey

A financial conditions index (FCI) is an instrument that is developed using some financial variables in order to predict future output and/or inflation. Therefore, some studies in the literature examine the relationship between FCI and output gap/growth to determine whether the FCI is a leading indicator of business cycles. This study aims at investigating the relationship between output gap and FCI for Turkey by utilizing quarterly data covering the period 2005:1–2015:3. In other words, the study examines whether the FCI can be a leading indicator of business cycles in Turkey. For this purpose, the study, first, presents an FCI that has been recently developed for Turkey and reveals that the FCI is able to present the developments in the Turkish economy and in the world. Second, the study employs unit root tests and cointegration tests. The study finally performs vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis and the bootstrap Granger causality test to examine the relationship between FCI and output gap in Turkey. Both VAR analysis and the bootstrap Granger causality test indicate that the FCI has predictive power in forecasting future output gap in Turkey. Based on these findings, this study yields that the FCI in this study can be used as a leading indicator of business cycles in Turkey.

Education-growth nexus in middle-income countries: an empirical examination for schooling rates

The goal of this paper is to examine the education-growth nexus for 5 middle-income countries (Malaysia, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand, and Turkey) using schooling rate as the indicator of education over the period 1987-2015. The paper first performs cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity tests and then employs the bootstrap panel Granger causality test developed by Konya (2006). According to the findings, while there is unidirectional causality from schooling rate to GDP in Thailand, there is unidirectional causality from GDP to schooling rate in South Africa. The findings of the paper indicate that schooling rate is not a good proxy for human capital. Theoretical and policy implications are discussed in the conclusion part.

HAVE FINANCIAL STABILITY CONCERNS CHANGED THE PRIORITY OF THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY

Abstract This paper aims at analysing whether the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), designing a new monetary policy framework to achieve financial stability in the last quarter of 2010, tries to pursue financial stability by putting price stability on the back burner. To this end, a forward-looking reaction function that is extended with nominal exchange rate gap and nominal domestic credits gap is estimated for the CBRT. The paper first performs unit root and cointegration tests and finds that the variables become stationary at first differences and that there is a cointegration relationship among variables. Then, the paper conducts the Kalman filter to obtain time varying parameters. The findings show that the coefficients of all explanatory variables did not change too much after the new monetary policy framework of the CBRT in the last quarter of 2010. Therefore, this paper asserts that the CBRT continues to pursue price stability as its primary goal and tries to achieve financial stability by using macroprudential tools. Thus this paper concludes that financial stability concerns have not changed the priority of the CBRT.