Usama Bilal

Population-wide weight loss and regain in relation to diabetes burden and cardiovascular mortality in Cuba 1980-2010: repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends

Objective To evaluate the associations between population-wide loss and gain in weight with diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality, as well as cardiovascular and cancer mortality trends, in Cuba over a 30 year interval. Design Repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends. Setting Cuba and the province of Cienfuegos, from 1980 to 2010. Participants Measurements in Cienfuegos included a representative sample of 1657, 1351, 1667, and 1492 adults in 1991, 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively. National surveys included a representative sample of 14 304, 22 851, and 8031 participants in 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively. Main outcome measures Changes in smoking, daily energy intake, physical activity, and body weight were tracked from 1980 to 2010 using national and regional surveys. Data for diabetes prevalence and incidence were obtained from national population based registries. Mortality trends were modelled using national vital statistics. Results Rapid declines in diabetes and heart disease accompanied an average population-wide loss of 5.5 kg in weight, driven by an economic crisis in the mid-1990s. A rebound in population weight followed in 1995 (33.5% prevalence of overweight and obesity) and exceeded pre-crisis levels by 2010 (52.9% prevalence). The population-wide increase in weight was immediately followed by a 116% increase in diabetes prevalence and 140% increase in diabetes incidence. Six years into the weight rebound phase, diabetes mortality increased by 49% (from 9.3 deaths per 10 000 people in 2002 to 13.9 deaths per 10 000 people in 2010). A deceleration in the rate of decline in mortality from coronary heart disease was also observed. Conclusions In relation to the Cuban experience in 1980-2010, there is an association at the population level between weight reduction and death from diabetes and cardiovascular disease; the opposite effect on the diabetes and cardiovascular burden was seen on population-wide weight gain.

Challenges and Opportunities for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention

Cardiovascular diseases are highly preventable, yet they remain the most common cause of death in the world. The epidemic is receding in industrialized countries; however, many low-income and middle-income countries have experienced an increase in cardiovascular diseases and 80% of all cardiovascular diseases deaths occur there. In the last 20 years, the epidemiology and surveillance of cardiovascular diseases have laid the foundations for public health interventions that may reduce the burden of disease. Relevant population-specific local data are therefore needed to describe the trends and pattern of risk for atherosclerotic diseases. Once the basis for surveillance and epidemiological research has been laid, cardiovascular disease prevention will require approaches adapted for each individual and population. The existence of effective preventive interventions justifies the assertion that coronary heart disease and stroke could be virtually prevented and controlled. Our goal in this review is to summarize the current challenges and opportunities for cardiovascular medicine, focusing on the need for high-quality local surveillance systems that provide the appropriate data needed to develop sound national cardiovascular disease preventive policies.

Preventing non-communicable diseases through structural changes in urban environments

The primary determinants of disease are mainly economic and social, and therefore its remedies must also be economic and social. Medicine and politics cannot and should not be kept apart. Rose1 To achieve [a reduction in overweight and obesity] is perhaps the major public health and societal challenge of the century. Potential strategies include [….] redesign of built environments to promote physical activity, changes in food systems, restrictions on aggressive promotion of unhealthy drinks and foods to children and economic strategies such as taxation. Willet2 Non-communicable diseases (NCDs)—mainly cancers, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases—are the main causes of death and morbidity worldwide.3 NCDs are now annually responsible for more than 35 million deaths in the world with more than 80% of this disease burden occurring in low-income and middle-income countries.4 At the same time, NCDs are highly preventable by means of effective preventive interventions tackling shared behavioural risk factors such as unhealthy diets, harmful use of alcohol, tobacco use and physical inactivity.5 Efforts to prevent NCDs have historically included strategies to target high-risk individuals, which have shown, especially in the case of obesity and diabetes, poor results.6 ,7 To advance the prevention of NCDs, population-wide understanding of these shared risk factors and morbidity remains crucial. The population approach to prevent NCDs, articulated by Rose1 in his article Sick individuals and sick populations, aims at shifting the distribution of its risk factors for the whole population, therefore affecting everyone regardless of their risk. Rose highlighted the need to measure and understand factors related to interpopulation differences in the distribution of risk factors (social phenomena and social determinants or environmental factors), instead of focusing on factors related to interindividual differences within a population (classic behavioural risk factors and genetics). The population …

Validation of a Method for Reconstructing Historical Rates of Smoking Prevalence

The validity of methods for reconstructing historical rates of smoking prevalence has not been assessed before. Our objective was to assess their validity. We reconstructed smoking prevalence rates for each calendar year from 1940 to 2007 for men and women in Spain, using data on ages of smoking initiation and cessation available in the Spanish National Health Surveys of 2003-2004 and 2006-2007. To assess the validity of the reconstruction, we computed the differences between the reconstructed smoking prevalence and the contemporary observed smoking prevalence measured in the Spanish National Health Surveys of 1987, 1993, 1995, 1997, and 2001. We also compared reconstructed smoking prevalence trends with 35-year lagged lung cancer mortality rates in Spain as a proxy for the real prevalence trends. Reconstructed smoking prevalence rates compared with contemporary measured rates showed small differences in men (between -2.1% and 2.1%) and an overestimation in women (between 2.0% and 5.7%). Reconstructed smoking prevalence trends were significantly correlated with lagged lung cancer mortality trends (P = 0.004 for men, P < 0.0001 for women). The reconstruction of smoking prevalence rates through this methodology offers a feasible tool with which countries lacking previous smoking surveys can understand historical trends in their tobacco epidemic, which aids in designing and implementing adequate tobacco control interventions.

Assessing Walking and Cycling Environments in the Streets of Madrid: Comparing On-Field and Virtual Audits

Audit tools are useful for exploring the urban environment and its association with physical activity. Virtual auditing options are becoming increasingly available potentially reducing the resources needed to conduct these assessments. Only a few studies have explored the use of virtual audit tools. Our objective is to test if the Madrid Systematic Pedestrian and Cycling Environment Scan (M-SPACES) discriminates between areas with different urban forms and to validate virtual street auditing using M-SPACES. Three areas (N = 500 street segments) were selected for variation in population density. M-SPACES was used to audit street segments physically and virtually (Google Street View) by two researchers in 2013–2014. For both physical and virtual audits, all analyzed features score significantly different by area (p < 0.05). Most of the features showed substantial (ICC = 0.6–0.8) or almost perfect (ICC ≥ 0.8) agreement between virtual and physical audits, especially neighborhood permeability walking infrastructure, traffic safety, streetscape aesthetics, and destinations. Intra-rater agreement was generally acceptable (ICC > 0.6). Inter-rater agreement was generally poor (ICC < 0.4). Virtual auditing provides a valid and feasible way of measuring residential urban environments. Comprehensive auditor training may be needed to guarantee good inter-rater agreement.

Control de los factores de riesgo coronarios y terapias basadas en la evidencia: esfuerzos coordinados para la prevención cardiovascular en España

Manuel Franco,* Richard Cooper, Usama Bilal, and Valentin Fuster Departamento de Epidemiologia, Aterotrombosis e Imagen, Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Cardiovasculares (CNIC), Madrid, Spain Department of Epidemiology, Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology and Cardiovascular Research, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States Department of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiology, Loyola University Medical School, Maywood, Illinois, United States d Zena and Michael A. Wiener Cardiovascular Institute, and the Marie-Josee and Henry R. Kravis Cardiovascular Health Center, The Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, United States

Gender equality and smoking: a theory-driven approach to smoking gender differences in Spain

Background The intersection between gender and class can aid in understanding gender differences in smoking. Aim To analyse how changes in gender inequality relate to differences in smoking prevalence by gender, education and birth cohort in Spain over the past five decades (1960–2010). Methods The Gender Inequality Index (GII) was calculated in 5-year intervals from 1960 to 2010. GII ranges from 0 to 1 (1=highest inequality) and encompasses three dimensions: reproductive health, empowerment and labour market. Estimates of female and male smoking prevalence were reconstructed from representative National Health Surveys and stratified by birth cohort and level of education. We calculated female-to-male smoking ratios from 1960 to 2010 stratified by education and birth cohort. Results Gender inequality in Spain decreased from 0.65 to 0.09 over the past 50 years. This rapid decline was inversely correlated (r=−0.99) to a rising female-to-male smoking ratio. The youngest birth cohort of the study (born 1980–1990) and women with high education levels had similar smoking prevalences compared with men. Women with high levels of education were also the first to show a reduction in smoking prevalence, compared with less educated women. Conclusions Gender inequality fell significantly in Spain over the past 50 years. This process was accompanied by converging trends in smoking prevalence for men and women. Smoking prevalence patterns varied greatly by birth cohort and education levels. Countries in earlier stages of the tobacco epidemic should consider gender-sensitive tobacco control measures and policies.

Interaction Between Alcohol Consumption Patterns, Antiretroviral Therapy Type, and Liver Fibrosis in Persons Living with HIV

We examined the longitudinal association between alcohol use and liver fibrosis, measured by FIB-4 Score, among HIV-infected individuals by (1) antiretroviral therapy (ART) class, and (2) the presence of hepatitis C (HCV) co-infection. This was a prospective cohort study of 550 individuals in the Johns Hopkins HIV Clinical Cohort initiating ART between 2000 and 2012. The relationship between alcohol consumption (defined using NIAAA categories of non-, moderate, and hazardous drinkers) and liver fibrosis (FIB-4 score) by ART class was assessed using linear mixed effects models. Additionally, we examined whether the presence of HCV modified and whether viral load mediated the relationship between alcohol use and liver fibrosis. Overall, FIB-4 levels were 15.6% higher in hazardous drinkers compared to moderate drinkers (p = 0.025) after adjusting by age, sex, and race. Hazardous drinkers on PI-based regimens had FIB-4 scores 26.9% higher than moderate drinkers (p = 0.015). However, there was no difference in FIB-4 levels between hazardous drinkers on non-PI-based regimens compared to moderate drinkers (1.83% versus moderate drinkers, p = 0.848). There was no significant difference in FIB-4 between nondrinkers and moderate drinkers, irrespective of ART regimen. These associations were not modified by HCV status or mediated by viral load changes. Individuals with hazardous alcohol consumption and on PI-based regimens had significantly increased liver fibrosis, as measured by the FIB-4. These data suggest that providers should consider level of alcohol consumption when choosing an ART regimen to minimize detrimental effects on the liver.

Epidemiology of NAFLD and Type 2 Diabetes: Health Disparities Among Persons of Hispanic Origin

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common chronic liver condition in the USA and worldwide and affects Hispanics disproportionally. In this review, we aim to document and contrast the epidemiology of NAFLD and type 2 diabetes, provide a framework to study health disparities in NAFLD in Hispanic populations, and identify points of action within the health care system to tackle these health disparities. NAFLD shares many common risk factors with type 2 diabetes, specially obesity and insulin resistance, but shows different prevalence patterns by ethnicity: while Hispanics are disproportionately affected by both NAFLD and type 2 diabetes, non-Hispanic black populations have a low prevalence of NAFLD. The current literature suggests a strong role of polymorphisms in the PNPLA3 gene and potential interactions with environmental factors in the pathogenesis of NAFLD. However, given potential interactions and the shared risk factors with type 2 diabetes, a health disparity approach that acknowledges upstream determinants is needed. Solutions to these determinants can also be found in the health system. The role of interventions that have shown efficacy in type 2 diabetes, like community health workers, may be implemented to prevent and control NAFLD.

Baltimore city stores increased the availability of healthy food after WIC policy change

As part of a 2009 revision to the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program, the Department of Agriculture required WIC-authorized stores to stock additional varieties of healthy food. The long-term effects of this policy on access to healthy food are unknown. Using surveys conducted in 118 Baltimore City, Maryland, food stores in 2006 and 2012, we examined associations of the change in healthy food availability with store type, neighborhood demographics, and the 2009 WIC policy change. Overall, healthy food availability improved significantly between 2006 and 2012, with the greatest increases in corner stores and in census tracts with more than 60 percent black residents. On an 11-point scale measuring availability of fruit (3 points), vegetables (4 points), bread (2 points), and milk (2 points), the WIC policy change was associated with a 0.72-point increase in WIC-relevant healthy food availability, while joining WIC was associated with a 0.99-point increase. Stores that carry a limited variety of food items may be more receptive to stocking healthier food than previously thought, particularly within neighborhoods with a majority of black residents. Policies targeting healthy food availability have the potential to increase availability and decrease health disparities.