V. A. San’kov

Seismicity and Seismotectonic Deformations of the Crust in the Southern Baikal Basin

This paper addresses the seismicity of the Southern Baikal basin, where the Mw = 6.0 earthquake of 1999 was the strongest over the period of instrumental observations in this region. Focal mechanisms of background earthquakes and aftershocks are analyzed in relation to faults mapped on flanks of and within the basin. Based on a supplemented catalog of focal mechanisms, the value and direction of seismotectonic strain are evaluated. The results show that the territory to the west of the transverse Angara fault (the Mishikhinskaya depression) experiences deformation of pure extension, while the E-W basin segment west of the fault is subjected to deformation of extension with shear (the transtension regime). The crustal deformation directions as determined from GPS measurements and seismological observations are found to agree well. The average seismotectonic strain rate of the crust amounts to 2.95 × 10−9 yr−1, which is about an order of magnitude smaller than the value obtained from geodetic observations.

Late Cenozoic geodynamics and mechanical coupling of crustal and upper mantle deformations in the Mongolia-Siberia mobile area

Comprehensive analysis of the parameters characterizing contemporary and neotectonic deformations of the Earth’s crust and upper mantle developed in the Mongolia-Siberia area is presented. The orientation of the axes of horizontal deformation in the geodetic network from the data of GPS geodesy is accepted as an indicator of current deformations at the Earth’s surface. At the level of the middle crust, this is the orientation of the principal axes of the stress-tensors calculated from the mechanisms of earthquake sources. The orientation of the axes of stress-tensors reconstructed on the basis of structural data is accepted as an indicator of Late Cenozoic deformations in the upper crust. Data on seismic anisotropy of the upper mantle derived from published sources on the results of splitting of shear waves from remote earthquakes serve as indicators of deformation in the mantle. It is shown that the direction of extension (minimum compression) in the studied region coincides with the direction of anisotropy of the upper mantle, the median value of which is 310–320° NW. Seismic anisotropy is interpreted as the ordered orientation of olivine crystals induced by strong deformation owing to the flow of mantle matter. The observed mechanical coupling of the crust and upper mantle of the Mongolia-Siberia mobile area shows that the lithospheric mantle participated in the formation of neotectonic structural elements and makes it possible to ascertain the main processes determining the Late Cenozoic tectogenesis in this territory. One of the main mechanisms driving neotectonic and contemporary deformations in the eastern part of the Mongolia-Siberia area is the long-living and large-scale flow of the upper mantle matter from the northwest to the southeast, which induces both the movement of the northern part of the continent as a whole and the divergence of North Eurasia and the Amur Plate with the formation of the Baikal Rift System. In the western part of the region, deformation of the lithosphere is related to collisional compression, while in the central part, it is due to the dynamic interaction of these two large-scale processes.

Geodynamic conditions of evolution of the Tunka Branch in the Baikal Rift System

The Cenozoic paleostress state of the Earth’s crust at the southwestern flank of the Baikal Rift System (Tunka system of basins) is reconstructed. With allowance for known facts about the geologic history of the Tunka system of basins, the evolution of the stress field and its formation conditions are established by comparison of the obtained reconstructions, including the dated stress fields, with the Pleistocene-Holocene deformations in active fault zones and the present-day stress state (seismotectonic deformations calculated from the focal mechanisms of earthquakes). The opening of basins in the NW-SE direction was proceeding in the transtensional regime from the Oligocene to the late Miocene or early Pliocene. At the early-late Pliocene boundary, this process was followed by the transpressional regime with compression in the NW direction. In the late Pliocene, the situation at the southwestern flank changed drastically. Since that time, deformation has occurred in the transpressional regime and the compression axis has been oriented in the NE direction. The alternative models of the evolution of the Tunka system of basins—oblique extension, the transform fracture zone, or a pull-apart system—are considered. Both models are combined in the framework of the suggested stress-field reconstruction. The oblique extension (transtension) was related to the early stages of evolution, whereas a possibility of forming pull-apart basin was existent at the late stages.

Coupling of the Crustal and upper mantle deformations in the Mongolia-Siberian Mobile Area

The complex analysis of parameters characterizing the modern deformations of the Earth’s crust and upper mantle in the territory of the Mongolia-Siberian Area is made. Directions of principal tension axes of stress-tensors, calculated with the use of earthquake source mechanisms have been taken as parameters of modern deformations at the level of the middle crust; directions of axes of horizontal strains in the geodesic network by the GPS data have been taken as such parameters at the level of the Earth’s surface. The strain parameters for the mantle depths are the data on seismic anisotropy derived from the published sources about the results of studies on splitting of transversal waves from distant earthquakes. Seismic anisotropy is interpreted as the ordered orientation of olivine crystals, which appears with great strains resulting from the flow of the mantle material. It has been shown that directions of extensional strain axes (minimal compression) by geodesic and seismological data coincide with anisotropy directions in the upper mantle in the region whose median value is 310°–320°. The observed mechanical coupling of the crust and the upper mantle of the Mongolia-Siberian Mobile Area shows the participation of the lithospheric mantle in the formation of neotectonical structures and enables us to distinguish the principal processes determining the Late Cenozoic tectogenesis in this territory. One of the leading mechanisms for the neotectonical and modern deformations of the Mongolia-Siberian Region is the large-scale NW-SE material flow in the upper mantle causing both motion of the entire northern part of the continent and divergence of the Eurasia and the Amurian Plate. Lithospheric deformations in the western part of the region are related to collision-induced compression, while those in the central part are caused by interaction of these large-scale tectonic processes.

Estimation of the Recurrence Period of Strong Earthquakes in Zones of the Main Sayan and Tunka Faults according to the Data of Radiocarbon Dating and Statistical Analysis

The conventional radiocarbon ages of soil horizons limiting the timing of six fault-generating dis- placements within the East Sayan structure of the Main Sayan Fault and four displacements within the Tora structure of the Tunka Fault (M > 7) have been calibrated according to the IntCal04 calibration curve. It was revealed that between time periods of 12 Ka and 5.4 Ka years ago, the recurrence of earthquakes associated with movements along the faults in the East Sayan structure occurred once every 3000 years. After seismic quiescence, since 1100 years, one earthquake has occurred every 440 years. Using the Monte Carlo method, the possibility of the recurrence of strong earthquakes at different probability levels was considered. At a fre- quency probability of 95% the Main Sayan fault may be hazardous, dating from about 2120 AD. When low- ering the threshold probability to 72%, the beginning of the period of potential hazard is reduced to about 2030 AD. In both cases the maximum possibility of the occurrence of the next strong earthquake is not earlier than in the 22nd century. For the Tora structure, the periodicity of the recurrence of the earthquakes was esti- mated as 2800 yearsfor the past 11Ka with a probability of over 95% of the recurrence of earthquakes. This allows us to assume that currently the Tora structure is within the time interval of the potential risk of the recurrence of a strong earthquake.

Recent Geodynamics of Asia: Map, Principles of Its Compilation, and Geodynamic Analysis

A new map of the recent geodynamics of Asia is presented along with the principles and methods of its compilation and a characterization of the used factual material. For the first time, a map is based on the three parameters that determine recent geodynamics: the thickness of the lithosphere, the stress state, and the vectors of recent movements in the brittle upper portion of the lithosphere. In addition, active volcanoes and epicenters of earthquakes with M ≥ 6.0 are shown.

Late Cenozoic fields of the tectonic stresses in Western and Central Mongolia

The paper addresses the Late Cenozoic fault tectonics and the stress state of the Earth’s crust within the Mongolian microplate, embracing Central and Western Mongolia. We analyze the results of reconstructing the stress fields and the tectonic deformations in the zones of active faulting, located at the uplands and in the intermountain trenches, which bound the microplate (Mongolian Altai; Gobi Altai; Dolinoozersk trough; Khan-Taishir-Nuruu, Khan-Houkhei, and Bolnai uplands) and the Khangai dome. Deformations related with the northeastern general-scale collisional compression are concentrated along the periphery of the Mongolian microplate, and the maximum compression is focused on its western and southern boundaries, thus forming the right- and the left-lateral transpressive structures of the Mongolian and Gobi Altai. The deformations associated with the shortening of the Earth’s crust involve not only the mountain ridges framing the block, but also the intermountain troughs that separate the Gobi and Mongolian Altai from the Khangai dome, and the southern portion of the Khangai Uplift. The diversity in the deformations within the central Khengai region ensues from the coupling of tension caused by the dynamical impact of the mantle anomaly, which is located east of 100°E, with a regional NE compression. Owing to the relatively rigid Khangai block, the deformations are transferred to the northern bound of this structure, namely the seismically active North Khangai fault. The role of compression increases to the west of the zone, where it conjugates with the transpressive structures of the Mongolian Altai. The tension becomes more important in the western part of this zone where the releasing bends are formed. A region characterized by extra tension is localized also to the east of 100° E. In terms of the gradient in the lithosphere thickness and the structure types of the upper crust, the submeridional line running along 100°E is interpreted as the key interblock boundary.

Migration of seismic activity in strike-slip zones: A case study of the boundary between the North American and pacific plates

The results of computer visualization of the spatiotemporal distribution of the total earthquake energy for the instrumental period are presented. This visualization was implemented to determine the parameters of slow earthquake migrations (of a few kilometers to a few hundreds of kilometers per year) in strike-slip zones. A case study of the San Andreas and Mendocino fault zones referring to the boundary between the North American and Pacific plates is considered. The obtained results are compared with the migration peculiarities revealed for the structures under other geodynamical conditions, in particular those in Trans-Bakalia. The spatiotemporal analysis is carried out with the use of strong, moderate, and weak events. Migration episodes are detected in the seismic data projection zones constructed for epicenter concentrations at the Mendocino triple junction, at the junction of the San Andreas and Calaveras faults, the Santa Monica and San Gabriel ones, and the Camp Rock Fault Zone; these areas host the strongest earthquakes of the instrumental period. Migration in these zones is manifested as a phenomena both preceding and following the seismic events and can reflect the dynamics of the stress redistribution in the zone of interaction between tectonic structures. The calculated migration rates vary from 7 ± 2 to 250 ± 50 km/yr. It is concluded that there is no dependence of the seismic activity migration on the geodynamical type of the fault zones, because similar rates (10–70 km/yr) are reported for the Mendocino and San Andreas faults and the Baikal Rift System. The migration rates for the Mendocino and San Andreas, exceeding 70 km/yr, are likely caused by a high rate of the interplate displacements, which is higher than that in the Baikal Rift System by more than an order. The extent of the seismoactive segments of faults zones along which migration episodes were detected is from 20 to 70 km. The results of the mutual correlation analysis of time series carried out for such parameters as the earthquake numbers and earthquake energy suggest that migrations are caused by local geodynamical conditions affecting the seismicity on the scale of zones where large segments of fault zone interact with each other.

Modern fault formation in the Earth’s crust of the Baikal rift system according to the data on the mechanisms of earthquake sources

The spatial characteristics of seismotectonic deformations and the most likely fracture planes in the earthquake sources of the Baikal rift system (BRS) are determined using the method of cataclastic analysis of fractures [1]. It is shown that extension conditions with a strike of modern fractures parallel to the rift-controlling faults are dominant in the central zone and in most of the NE flank of the BRS. The flat average dip of fractures in the earthquake sources of the main fault zones for some rift depressions allow a suggestion about the flattening of faults in the middle crust. The antithetic faults are steeper. The BRS flanks are characterized by dominant shear deformations and more diverse morphogenetic faults in the earthquake sources (strike-slip faults, reversed faults, and normal faults). The modern faults at the BRS flanks weakly inherit the neotectonic structure.

Diagnostics of atmospheric water vapor content according to GPS measurements

A continuously operating GPS network, comprising seven permanent observation sites, is created to study the geodynamic processes in the Baikal region. Processing of the initial GPS data provides continuous atmospheric data in the form of total zenith tropospheric delay, which can be used for meteorological and climatological studies. The total delay is the sum of “dry”, or hydrostatic, and “wet” components. The wet component determines the total water vapor amount and amount of precipitable water over the measurement site. Thus, GPS measurements make it possible to obtain initial data for creating new numerical models of zenith tropospheric delay and total precipitable water vapor for meteorological applications.