V.P. Mohandas

A Decision Tree- Rough Set Hybrid System for Stock Market Trend Prediction

of stock market trends has been an area of great interest both to those who wish to profit by trading stocks in the stock market and for researchers attempting to uncover the information hidden in the stock market data. Applications of data mining techniques for stock market prediction, is an area of research which has been receiving a lot of attention recently. This work presents the design and performance evaluation of a hybrid decision tree- rough set based system for predicting the next days trend in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE- SENSEX). Technical indicators are used in the present study to extract features from the historical SENSEX data. C4.5 decision tree is then used to select the relevant features and a rough set based system is then used to induce rules from the extracted features. Performance of the hybrid rough set based system is compared to that of an artificial neural network based trend prediction system and a naive bayes based trend predictor. It is observed from the results that the proposed system outperforms both the neural network based system and the naive bayes based trend prediction system.

A GA-artificial neural network hybrid system for financial time series forecasting

Accurate prediction of financial time series, such as those generated by stock markets, is a highly challenging task due to the highly nonlinear nature of such series. A novel method of predicting the next day’s closing value of a stock market is proposed and empirically validated in the present study. The system uses an adaptive artificial neural network based system to predict the next day’s closing value of a stock market index. The proposed system adapts itself to the changing market dynamics with the help of genetic algorithm which tunes the parameters of the neural network at the end of each trading session so that best possible accuracy is obtained. The effectiveness of the proposed system is established by testing on five international stock indices using ten different performance measures.

Predicting stock market trends using hybrid ant-colony-based data mining algorithms: an empirical validation on the Bombay Stock Exchange

Ant Colony Optimisation (ACO) algorithms use simple mutually cooperating agents (ants) to produce a robust and adaptive search system, which can be used for knowledge discovery. In this paper, a Support Vector Machine (SVM)-cAnt-Miner-based system for predicting the next-days trend in stock markets is proposed. The trend predicted by the proposed system is then used to identify the appropriate time to buy and sell securities. Performance of the proposed system is evaluated against SVM-Ant-Miner, SVM-Ant-Miner2, Naive-Bayes and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based trend prediction system. The results indicate that the proposed system outperforms all the other techniques considered.

Artificial intelligence applications in financial forecasting --a survey and some empirical results

Financial forecasting is an area of research which has been attracting a lot of attention recently from practitioners in the field of artificial intelligence. Apart from the economic benefits of accurate financial prediction, the inherent nonlinearities in financial data make the task of analyzing and forecasting an extremely challenging task. This paper presents a survey of more than 100 articles published over two centuries from 1933 up to 2013 in an attempt to identify the developments and trends in the field of financial forecasting with focus on application of artificial intelligence for the purpose. The findings from the survey indicate that artificial intelligence and signal processing based techniques are more efficient when compared to traditional financial forecasting techniques and these techniques appear well suited for the task of financial forecasting. Some of the issues that need addressing are discussed in brief. A novel technique for selection of the input dataset size for ensuring best possible forecast accuracy is also presented. The results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed technique in improving the accuracy of forecasts.

A Stock Trading Recommender System Based on Temporal Association Rule Mining

Recommender systems capable of discovering patterns in stock price movements and generating stock recommendations based on the patterns thus discovered can significantly supplement the decision-making process of a stock trader. Such recommender systems are of great significance to a layperson who wishes to profit by stock trading even while not possessing the skill or expertise of a seasoned trader. A genetic algorithm optimized Symbolic Aggregate approXimation (SAX)–Apriori based stock trading recommender system, which can mine temporal association rules from the stock price data set to generate stock trading recommendations, is presented in this article. The proposed system is validated on 12 different data sets. The results indicate that the proposed system significantly outperforms the passive buy-and-hold strategy, offering scope for a layperson to successfully invest in capital markets.

An intelligent recommender system for stock trading

Abstract. Generating consistent profits from stock markets is considered to be a challenging task, especially due to the nonlinear nature of the stock price movements. Traders need to have a deep understanding of the market behavior patterns in order to trade successfully. In this study, a GA optimized technical indicator decision tree-SVM based intelligent recommender system is proposed, which can learn patterns from the stock price movements and then recommend appropriate one-day-ahead trading strategy. The recommender system takes the task of identifying stock price patterns on itself, allowing even a lay-user, who is not well versed in stock market behavior, to trade profitably on a consistent basis. The efficacy of the proposed system is validated on four different stocks belonging to two different stock markets (India and UK) over three different time frames for each stock. Performance of the proposed system is validated using fifteen different measures. Performance is compared with traditional technical indicator based trading and the traditional buy and hold strategy. Results indicate that the proposed system is capable of generating profits for all the stocks in both the stock markets considered.

Predicting the BSE Sensex: Performance comparison of adaptive linear element, feed forward and time delay neural networks

Accurate prediction of financial time series (which can be considered as nonlinear systems) especially in relation to emerging markets like India assumes prominence in that, these markets offer significantly higher opportunities for wealth creation for the investor. This paper compares the effectiveness of different types of Adaptive network architectures in one-step ahead prediction of the daily returns of Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index (SENSEX). The performance of each network is evaluated using 17 different performance measures to find the best network architecture. Also, an empirical evaluation of the weak form of Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) for the data in reference is carried out here.

Financial Market Prediction Using Feed Forward Neural Network

This paper outlines a methodology for aiding the decision making process for investment between two financial market assets (eg a risky asset versus a risk-free asset or between two risky assets itself), using neural network architecture. A Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN) and a Radial Basis Function (RBF) Network has been evaluated. The model is employed for arriving at a decision as to where to invest in the next time step, given data from the current time step. The time step could be chosen on daily/weekly/monthly basis, based on the investment requirement. In this study, the FFNN has yielded good results over RBF. Consequently two such FFNN have been developed to enable us make a decision on investment in the next time step to decide between two risky assets. The prediction made by the two FFNN models has been validated from the actual market data.