V. V. Volkova

Sheep movement networks and the transmission of infectious diseases.

Background and Methodology Various approaches have been used to investigate how properties of farm contact networks impact on the transmission of infectious diseases. The potential for transmission of an infection through a contact network can be evaluated in terms of the basic reproduction number, R 0. The magnitude of R 0 is related to the mean contact rate of a host, in this case a farm, and is further influenced by heterogeneities in contact rates of individual hosts. The latter can be evaluated as the second order moments of the contact matrix (variances in contact rates, and co-variance between contacts to and from individual hosts). Here we calculate these quantities for the farms in a country-wide livestock network: >15,000 Scottish sheep farms in each of 4 years from July 2003 to June 2007. The analysis is relevant to endemic and chronic infections with prolonged periods of infectivity of affected animals, and uses different weightings of contacts to address disease scenarios of low, intermediate and high animal-level prevalence. Principal Findings and Conclusions Analysis of networks of Scottish farms via sheep movements from July 2003 to June 2007 suggests that heterogeneities in movement patterns (variances and covariances of rates of movement on and off the farms) make a substantial contribution to the potential for the transmission of infectious diseases, quantified as R 0, within the farm population. A small percentage of farms (<20%) contribute the bulk of the transmission potential (>80%) and these farms could be efficiently targeted by interventions aimed at reducing spread of diseases via animal movement.

Inter-relationships of Salmonella status of flock and grow-out environment at sequential segments in broiler production and processing.

In this study, we investigated how the likelihoods of Salmonella presence in various samples from broilers and their grow‐out environment throughout one production cycle were related. Sixty‐four broiler flocks from 10 complexes of two companies in the southern United States were included in the study. Samples from the gastrointestinal tracts of chicks, transport tray pads and litter and drag swabs from the house were collected on the day of placement of each flock. Approximately, 1 week before harvest, whole bird carcass rinses, caecum and crop samples were collected from birds from these same flocks. On the day of harvest, litter and drag swab samples were also taken from the house after the birds were removed. Upon arrival of the flocks at the processing plant, whole carcass rinses, caecum and crop samples were collected. As the flocks were processed, carcass rinses were collected just before the carcasses entered the immersion chill tank and as they exited the chill tank. Logistic regression was used to model the relationships between the likelihood of Salmonella in samples of each type collected at each sampling point and Salmonella frequencies in all the samples taken from the flock and grow‐out environment at preceding production stages. The analysis demonstrated that increased likelihood of Salmonella contaminated carcasses entering the immersion chill tank was associated with higher contamination of the exteriors and crops of birds at arrival for processing as well as house environmental samples at the time of harvest and prior to placement. The best predictors of post‐chill broiler carcass Salmonella status were the frequencies of Salmonella in the litter on the day of harvest and prior to placement. The immersion chilling appeared to disrupt some of the relationships between the processing plant and pre‐harvest samples.

Potential for transmission of infections in networks of cattle farms.

The aim of this analysis is to evaluate how generic properties of networks of livestock farms connected by movements of cattle impact on the potential for spread of infectious diseases. We focus on endemic diseases with long infectious periods in affected cattle, such as bovine tuberculosis. Livestock farm networks provide a rare example of large but fully specified directed contact networks, allowing investigations into how properties of such networks impact the potential for spread of infections within them. Here we quantify the latter in terms of the basic reproduction number, R₀, and partition the contributions to R₀ from first order moments (mean contact rates) and second order moments (variances and covariances of contact rates) of the farm contact matrices. We find that the second order properties make a substantial contribution to the magnitude of R₀ similarly to that reported for other populations. Importantly, however, we find that the magnitude of these effects depends on exactly how the contacts between farms are defined or weighted. We note that the second order properties of a directed contact network may vary through time even with little change in the mean contact rates or in overall connectedness of the network.

Assessing the consequences of an incursion of a vector-borne disease: I. Identifying feasible incursion scenarios for bluetongue in Scotland

Following the arrival of bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in southeast England in September 2007, the Scottish Government commissioned research to assess the economic consequences of a BTV-8 incursion to Scotland. Here we present the first component of the assessment, which entailed identifying feasible incursion scenarios for the virus. Our analyses focused on three routes of introduction: wind-borne dispersal of infected vectors, import of infected animals and northwards spread of BTV from affected areas in GB. These analyses were further refined by considering the spatial and temporal variation in the probability of onward transmission from an initial incursion.

A Review of Exotic Animal Disease in Great Britain and in Scotland Specifically between 1938 and 2007

Background Incursions of contagious diseases of livestock into disease-free zones are inevitable as long as the diseases persist elsewhere in the world. Knowledge of where, when and how incursions have occurred helps assess the risks, and regionalize preventative and reactive measures. Methodology Based on reports of British governmental veterinary services, we review occurrence of the former OIE List A diseases, and of Aujeszkys disease, anthrax and bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in farm-animals in Great Britain (GB) between 1938 and 2007. We estimate incidence of each disease on GB agricultural holdings and fraction of susceptible farm-animals culled to control the disease each year. We then consider the frequency and incidence of the diseases in Scotland alone. The limitations of available data on historical disease occurrence and denominator populations are detailed in Text S2. Conclusions The numbers of livestock and poultry farmed in GB grew over the years 1938–2007; the number of agricultural holdings decreased. An amalgamation of production on larger holdings took place from the 1940s to the 1980s. The maximum annual incidence of a reviewed disease in GB 1938–2007 was reported for bTB, 1.69% of holdings in 1961. This was followed by Newcastle disease, 1.50% of holdings in 1971, and classical swine fever, 1.09% of holdings in 1940. The largest fractional cull of susceptible livestock in a single year in each of the four decades 1950s–1980s was due to a viral disease primarily affecting swine. During the periods 1938–1949 and 2000–2007 this was due to outbreaks of foot and mouth disease. In the absence of incursions of the former OIE List A diseases in the 1990s, this was due to bTB. Over the 70 years, the diseases were reported with lower frequency and lower annual incidence in Scotland, as compared to when these statistics are considered for GB as a whole.

Evaluation of risks of foot-and-mouth disease in Scotland to assist with decision making during the 2007 outbreak in the UK

An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) occurred in Surrey on August 3, 2007. A Great Britain-wide ban on livestock movements was implemented immediately. This coincided with the start of seasonal sheep movements off the hills in Scotland; the majority of these animals are sold via markets. The ban therefore posed severe economic and animal-welfare hardships if it was to last through September and beyond. The Scottish Government commissioned an analysis to assess the risk of re-opening markets given the uncertainty about whether FMD had entered Scotland. Tracing of livestock moved from within the risk zone in England between July 16 and August 3 identified contact chains to 12 Scottish premises; veterinary field inspections found a further three unrecorded movements. No signs of infection were found on these holdings. Under the conservative assumption that a single unknown Scottish holding was infected with FMD, an estimate of the time-dependent probability of Scotland being FMD free given no detection was made. Analyses indicated that if FMD was not detected by early to mid-September then it was highly probable that Scotland was FMD free. Risk maps were produced to visualise the potential spread of FMD across Scotland if it was to spread either locally or via market sales.

Risk factors associated with detection of Salmonella in broiler litter at the time of new flock placement.

In this study, we investigated risk factors associated with the probability to detect Salmonella in samples of litter collected within 2 h prior to new flock placement in 76 grow‐out houses on 38 conventional broiler farms located in the US states of Mississippi, Alabama and Texas. We evaluated characteristics of location and layout of the farm; area adjacent to and surrounding the house; house construction; condition and type of equipment in the house; litter management and other production, sanitation, visitation and biosecurity practices; non‐broiler animal species on the farm; and weather conditions on the 3 days leading up to flock placement. Logistic regression was used to model the relationships between probability to detect Salmonella in litter and potential risk factors. In the screening process, each risk factor was evaluated as a single fixed effects factor in a multilevel model that accounted for variability among the sampled farms and their production complexes and companies. Of almost 370 risk factors screened, 24 were associated with the probability to detect Salmonella in litter. These were characteristics of the surroundings of the house, house construction and conditions, litter management, length of downtimes between flocks in the house, biosecurity and farm location. After investigation of collinearity between these variables and building of models for important risk factor categories, the list of candidate variables for the final model was refined to eight factors. The final model demonstrated that a higher probability of detecting Salmonella in litter was strongly associated with the use of wood to construct the base of the walls or to cover the inside of the broiler house foundation, and with the use of fresh wood shavings to top‐dress or completely replace the litter between flocks.

Risk Factors Associated with Salmonella Status of Broiler Flocks Delivered to Grow-Out Farms

In a prospective field observational study in the southeastern USA, we sampled gastrointestinal (GI) tracts from chicks of 65 broiler flocks delivered to conventional grow‐out farms for rearing. The flocks were hatched at seven broiler hatcheries. The mean within‐flock prevalence of Salmonella‐positive samples was 6.5% and ranged from 0% to 86.7%. Of the 65 flocks studied, 25 (38.5%) had at least one Salmonella‐positive sample. Accounting for confounding variability among the hatcheries and broiler companies, we tested whether the probability of detecting Salmonella in GI tracts of the chicks delivered was associated with certain characteristics of parent breeder flocks; hatchery production volume; hatchery ventilation system; hatchery egg‐room conditions; egg incubation, candling, hatching, eggshell and bird separation, and bird‐processing procedures; management of hatchery‐to‐farm transportation; day of week of hatch; weather conditions during transportation; or season of the hatch. Two risk factor models were adopted. The first model indicated that a greater number of parent flocks, manual separation of eggshell and bird, and a greater amount of fluff and feces on tray liners used during hatchery‐to‐farm transportation at delivery were associated with increased probability of detecting Salmonella in chick GI tracts, whereas a greater number of birds in the delivery vehicle was associated with decreased probability. The second model indicated that broiler flocks hatched on Tuesdays versus either Mondays or Thursdays (with no hatches on Wednesdays, Fridays or week‐ends), increased average hatchability of the eggs from the parent flocks, and greater amounts of fluff and feces on the transport tray liners at delivery were all associated with increased probability of detecting Salmonella in chick GI tracts. The results of this study suggest potential management decisions to lessen Salmonella contamination of broilers supplied by commercial hatcheries and areas for further research.

Effects of Broiler Feed Medications on Salmonella

SUMMARY This pilot analysis was conducted with data from 52 conventional grow-out broiler flocks in a prospective field observational study in the southeastern United States during 2003–2006. Each flock was sampled for Salmonella 1 wk before the end of grow-out, upon arrival at the processing plant, and during processing (prior to and immediately after carcass chilling). The broiler litter was sampled on the day of bird harvest. The grow-out feeding programs, including the medications delivered in feed, were surveyed with questionnaires completed by the broiler managers and feedmill managers. Each detail of the feeding program was tested for statistical association with the frequency of Salmonella in the flock at each sampling point, after accounting for variation in Salmonella frequency between the farms, broiler complexes, and companies. Significant associations were found between Salmonella frequency in the broiler flock pre- and postharvest and the inclusion of feeds containing individual coccidiostats and other antimicrobial growth promoters, days on feed, and total consumption of feeds containing these products, as well as with practices such as a mash feed and a nonmedicated withdrawal feed. The analysis provided testable hypotheses for how broiler feed medications impact the frequency of Salmonella in the flocks. RESUMEN Efectos de los medicamentos de pollo de engorde sobre Salmonella. Este análisis piloto se llevó a cabo con datos de 52 parvadas convencionales de pollo de engorde en un estudio de campo observacional prospectivo en el sureste de los Estados Unidos durante los años 2003 al 2006. Se recolectaron muestras de cada parvada para Salmonella una semana antes del final del periodo engorde tanto a su llegada a la planta de procesamiento y durante el proceso (antes e inmediatamente después del enfriamiento de la canal). La cama de pollos de engorda fue muestreada en el día que las aves se llevaron a la planta de procesamiento. Los programas de engorda de alimentación, incluidos los medicamentos adicionados en el alimento, fueron encuestados mediante cuestionarios completados por los directores y gerentes de fábrica de alimentos para pollo de engorde. Cada detalle del programa de alimentación se puso a prueba para la asociación estadística con la frecuencia de Salmonella en la parvada, en cada punto de muestreo después de contabilizada la variación en la frecuencia de Salmonella entre las granjas de pollos de engorde, los complejos y las empresas. Se encontraron asociaciones significativas entre la frecuencia de Salmonella antes y después del envío de las aves a la planta de procesamiento y con la inclusión de alimentos que contenían coccidiostatos individuales y otros antibióticos promotores del crecimiento, número de días en que se administró el alimento y el consumo total de alimento que contenían estos productos, así como con las prácticas tales como la administración de alimento en harina y alimento de retiro no medicado. El análisis proporciona hipótesis comprobables del mecanismo por el cual los medicamentos en el alimento afectan la frecuencia de Salmonella en las parvadas.

Lighting during grow-out and Salmonella in broiler flocks

BackgroundLighting is used during conventional broiler grow-out to modify bird behaviour to reach the goals of production and improve bird welfare. The protocols for lighting intensity vary. In a field study, we evaluated if the lighting practices impact the burden of Salmonella in broiler flocks.MethodsConventional grow-out flocks reared in the states of Alabama, Mississippi and Texas, USA in 2003 to 2006 were sampled 1 week before harvest (n = 58) and upon arrival for processing (n = 56) by collecting feathered carcass rinsate, crop and one cecum from each of 30 birds, and during processing by collecting rinsate of 30 carcasses at pre-chilling (n = 56) and post-chilling points (n = 54). Litter samples and drag swabs of litter were collected from the grow-out houses after bird harvest (n = 56). Lighting practices for these flocks were obtained with a questionnaire completed by the growers. Associations between the lighting practices and the burden of Salmonella in the flocks were tested while accounting for variation between the grow-out farms, their production complexes and companies.ResultsLonger relative duration of reduced lights during the grow-out period was associated with reduced detection of Salmonella on the exterior of birds 1 week before harvest and on the broiler carcasses at the post-chilling point of processing. In addition, starting reduced lights for ≥18 hours per day later in the grow-out period was associated with decreased detection of Salmonella on the exterior of broilers arriving for processing and in the post-harvest drag swabs of litter from the grow-out house.ConclusionsThe results of this field study show that lighting practices implemented during broiler rearing can impact the burden of Salmonella in the flock. The underlying mechanisms are likely to be interactive.