Valentin Gischig

Site Effects in Unstable Rock Slopes: Dynamic Behavior of the Randa Instability (Switzerland)

We evaluate the dynamic response of the large (around five million cubic meters) unstable rock slope at Randa, Switzerland, based on ground-motion recordings during small earthquakes. Seismic measurements revealed strong polarization of the wavefield in the direction of maximum slope displacement with spectral amplification factors ∼5 within the unstable area. Results further highlighted resonant frequencies of both the large unstable rock mass and individual blocks within it. Block vibration was confirmed by phase analysis of in situ displacement measurements from two bounding tension fractures during a small earthquake. Numerical simulation using a discontinuous elastic model showed that the presence of steeply-dipping compliant fractures is crucial for recreating the observed site response. Such fractures are common in rock slope instabilities and are here shown to contribute to polarization and amplification of seismic shaking, site effects that are rarely considered for hard rock slopes and which may influence the potential for earthquake-triggered failure.

Rupture propagation behavior and the largest possible earthquake induced by fluid injection into deep reservoirs

Earthquakes caused by fluid injection into deep underground reservoirs constitute an increasingly recognized risk to populations and infrastructure. Quantitative assessment of induced seismic hazard, however, requires estimating the maximum possible magnitude earthquake that may be induced during fluid injection. Here I seek constraints on an upper limit for the largest possible earthquake using source-physics simulations that consider rate-and-state friction and hydro-mechanical interaction along a straight homogeneous fault. Depending on the orientation of the pressurized fault in the ambient stress field, different rupture behavior can occur: 1) uncontrolled rupture-front propagation beyond the pressure front, or 2) rupture-front propagation arresting at the pressure front. In the first case, fault properties determine the earthquake magnitude, and the upper magnitude limit may be similar to natural earthquakes. In the second case, the maximum magnitude can be controlled by carefully designing and monitoring injection, and thus restricting the pressurized fault area.

Numerical Investigation of Seismically Induced Rock Mass Fatigue as a Mechanism Contributing to the Progressive Failure of Deep-Seated Landslides

The importance of earthquakes in triggering catastrophic failure of deep-seated landslides has long been recognized and is well documented in the literature. However, seismic waves do not only act as a trigger mechanism. They also contribute to the progressive failure of large rock slopes as a fatigue process that is highly efficient in deforming and damaging rock slopes. Given the typically long recurrence time and unpredictability of earthquakes, field-based investigations of co-seismic rock slope deformations are difficult. We present here a conceptual numerical study that demonstrates how repeated earthquake activity over time can destabilize a relatively strong rock slope by creating and propagating new fractures until the rock mass is sufficiently weakened to initiate catastrophic failure. Our results further show that the damage and displacement induced by a certain earthquake strongly depends on pre-existing damage. In fact, the damage history of the slope influences the earthquake-induced displacement as much as earthquake ground motion characteristics such as the peak ground acceleration. Because seismically induced fatigue is: (1) characterized by low repeat frequency, (2) represents a large amplitude damage event, and (3) weakens the entire rock mass, it differs from other fatigue processes. Hydro-mechanical cycles, for instance, occur at higher repeat frequencies (i.e., annual cycles), lower amplitude, and only affect limited parts of the rock mass. Thus, we also compare seismically induced fatigue to seasonal hydro-mechanical fatigue. While earthquakes can progressively weaken even a strong, competent rock mass, hydro-mechanical fatigue requires a higher degree of pre-existing damage to be effective. We conclude that displacement rates induced by hydro-mechanical cycling are indicative of the degree of pre-existing damage in the rock mass. Another indicator of pre-existing damage is the seismic amplification pattern of a slope; frequency-dependent amplification factors are highly sensitive to changes in the fracture network within the slope. Our study demonstrates the importance of including fatigue-related damage history—in particular, seismically induced fatigue—into landslide stability and hazard assessments.

Beyond debuttressing: Mechanics of paraglacial rock slope damage during repeat glacial cycles

Cycles of glaciation impose mechanical stresses on underlying bedrock as glaciers advance, erode, and retreat. Fracture initiation and propagation constitute rock mass damage and act as preparatory factors for slope failures; however, the mechanics of paraglacial rock slope damage remain poorly characterized. Using conceptual numerical models closely based on the Aletsch Glacier region of Switzerland, we explore how in situ stress changes associated with fluctuating ice thickness can drive progressive rock mass failure preparing future slope instabilities. Our simulations reveal that glacial cycles as purely mechanical loading and unloading phenomena produce relatively limited new damage. However, ice fluctuations can increase the criticality of fractures in adjacent slopes, which may in turn increase the efficacy of fatigue processes. Bedrock erosion during glaciation promotes significant new damage during first deglaciation. An already weakened rock slope is more susceptible to damage from glacier loading and unloading and may fail completely. We find that damage kinematics are controlled by discontinuity geometry and the relative position of the glacier; ice advance and retreat both generate damage. We correlate model results with mapped landslides around the Great Aletsch Glacier. Our result that most damage occurs during first deglaciation agrees with the relative age of the majority of identified landslides. The kinematics and dimensions of a slope failure produced in our models are also in good agreement with characteristics of instabilities observed in the field. Our results extend simplified assumptions of glacial debuttressing, demonstrating in detail how cycles of ice loading, erosion, and unloading drive paraglacial rock slope damage.

The importance of earthquake interactions for injection‐induced seismicity: Retrospective modeling of the Basel Enhanced Geothermal System

Author(s): Catalli, F; Rinaldi, AP; Gischig, V; Nespoli, M; Wiemer, S | Abstract: ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. We explore the role of earthquake interactions during an injection-induced seismic sequence. We propose a model, which considers both a transient pressure and static stress redistribution due to event interactions as triggering mechanisms. By calibrating the model against observations at the Enhanced Geothermal System of Basel, Switzerland, we are able to reproduce the time behavior of the seismicity rate. We observe that considering earthquake interactions in the modeling leads to a larger number of expected seismic events (24% more) if compared to a pressure-induced seismicity only. The increase of the number of events is particularly evident after the end of the injection. We conclude that implementing a model for estimating the static stress changes due to mutual event interactions increases significantly the understanding of the process and the behavior of induced seismicity.

Validating induced seismicity forecast models—Induced Seismicity Test Bench

Induced earthquakes often accompany fluid injection, and the seismic hazard they pose threatens various underground engineering projects. Models to monitor and control induced seismic hazard with traffic light systems should be probabilistic, forward-looking, and updated as new data arrive. In this study, we propose an Induced Seismicity Test Bench to test and rank such models; this test bench can be used for model development, model selection, and ensemble model building. We apply the test bench to data from the Basel 2006 and Soultz-sous-Forets 2004 geothermal stimulation projects, and we assess forecasts from two models: Shapiro and Smoothed Seismicity (SaSS) and Hydraulics and Seismics (HySei). These models incorporate a different mix of physics-based elements and stochastic representation of the induced sequences. Our results show that neither model is fully superior to the other. Generally, HySei forecasts the seismicity rate better after shut-in but is only mediocre at forecasting the spatial distribution. On the other hand, SaSS forecasts the spatial distribution better and gives better seismicity rate estimates before shut-in. The shut-in phase is a difficult moment for both models in both reservoirs: the models tend to underpredict the seismicity rate around, and shortly after, shut-in.

Towards a Real-Time Forecast of Induced Seismicity for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

The development of novel technologies such as Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) has been decelerated due to induced seismicity. Sophisticated traffic light systems, which assess the seismic hazard in time for taking precautionary measures, can assist in the successful development of EGS sites close to urban areas. We present here the modeling approach for a hybrid model that can be used in such a traffic light system. This hybrid model combines the HFR-Sim software with stochastic models that have been used for forecasting induced seismicity. HFR-Sim is an EGS simulator, which can model flow inside dynamically changing fracture networks. It offers discrete representation of fractures, and can be used for simulating a wide range of three dimensional problems, which are related to the design, creation and operation of an EGS reservoir. Here, the coupling of HFR-Sim with a stochastic seed model is explained. Exemplary simulations are performed with the resulting software and the results obtained by those simulations are discussed.

On the link between stress field and small-scale hydraulic fracture growth in anisotropic rock derived from microseismicity

To characterize the stress field at the Grimsel Test Site (GTS) underground rock laboratory, a series of hydrofracturing and overcoring tests were performed. Hydrofracturing was accompanied by seismic monitoring using a network of highly sensitive piezosensors and accelerometers that were able to record small seismic events associated with metre-sized fractures. Due to potential discrepancies between the hydrofracture orientation and stress field estimates from overcoring, it was essential to obtain highprecision hypocentre locations that reliably illuminate fracture growth. Absolute locations were improved using a transverse isotropic P-wave velocity model and by applying joint hypocentre determination that allowed for the computation of station corrections. We further exploited the high degree of waveform similarity of events by applying cluster analysis and relative relocation. Resulting clouds of absolute and relative located seismicity showed a consistent east–west strike and 70 dip for all hydrofractures. The fracture growth direction from microseismicity is consistent with the principal stress orientations from the overcoring stress tests, provided that an anisotropic elastic model for the rock mass is used in the data inversions. The σ1 stress is significantly larger than the other two principal stresses and has a reasonably welldefined orientation that is subparallel to the fracture plane; σ2 and σ3 are almost equal in magnitude and thus lie on a circle defined by the standard errors of the solutions. The poles of the microseismicity planes also lie on this circle towards the north. Analysis of P-wave polarizations suggested double-couple focal mechanisms with both thrust and normal faulting mechanisms present, whereas strike-slip and thrust mechanisms would be expected from the overcoring-derived stress solution. The reasons for these discrepancies can be explained by pressure leak-off, but possibly may also involve stress field rotation around the propagating hydrofracture. Our study demonstrates that microseismicity monitoring along with high-resolution event locations provides valuable information for interpreting stress characterization measurements.