Valeria Merlo

The Impact of Bilateral Investment Treaties on FDI Dynamics

This paper investigates the impact of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) on foreign direct investment (FDI) in transition countries. FDI stocks are characterised by sluggish adjustment and a dynamic pattern. This leads to biased estimates of the contemporaneous impact of BITs on FDI in static models. In our application, the contemporaneous (short-run) impact of BITs amounts to 4.8 per cent and the long-run effect to 8.9 per cent in the preferred model.

Bits Bite: An Anatomy of the Impact of Bilateral Investment Treaties on Multinational Firms

Bilateral investment treaties (BITs) are one of the few policy instruments that countries can use to directly attract foreign investment. Previous research has aimed at a quantification of the impact of BITs on foreign direct investment (FDI) at aggregated levels only. In contrast, in this paper, we deliver an anatomy of the effects of BITs on multinational activity at the micro level. We hope that this strategy will improve our understanding of the precise channels through which BITs determine aggregate investment. Using data on the foreign activity of the universe of German multinationals, we provide descriptive evidence on changes in the intensive and extensive margins of multinational firm activity around the adoption of BITs. The results of multivariate empirical models broadly support the hypotheses derived from a parsimonious model of heterogeneous firms on the effects of BITs on different margins of investment: BITs raise the number of multinational firms that are active in a particular host country and they have a positive effect on the number of plants per firm, as well as on FDI stocks and fixed assets per firm.

Consequences of the New UK Tax Exemption System: Evidence from Micro‐level Data

Until 2009, the United Kingdom operated a system of worldwide taxation. Taxation of foreign income was deferred until repatriated as dividends, leaving UK-owned multinational firms the possibility of avoiding UK taxation by delaying dividend payments and keeping earnings abroad. In 2009, the UK switched to a system under which all foreign-earned income is exempted from taxation. This fundamental change had a number of straightforward implications for UK-owned multinational firms and particularly changed incentives to repatriate profits. This paper assesses the effects of the reform on the foreign affiliates of UK-owned multinational firms. We use data provided by Bureau van Dijk on 61,738 foreign affiliates located in one of 29 European countries to estimate the impact of the reform on the repatriation pattern and other outcomes of UK-owned affiliates. We use an identification approach that quasi-randomizes over the country of residence of the ultimate firm owners, allowing us to compare outcomes of treated UK-owned foreign affiliates to control non-UK-owned foreign affiliates. Our results suggest that the switch to tax exemption not only changed dividend repatriation behavior of firms but also the conditions under which foreign entities operate in general, for instance, with regard to investment behavior.

Statutory Corporate Tax Rates and Double-Taxation Treaties as Determinants of Multinational Firm Activity

This paper analyzes the influence of statutory corporate tax rates on profits and of double-taxation treaties (DTTs) on multinational firm (MNE) activity at the micro level. It provides an assessment of the effects of these profit tax instruments on the extensive and the intensive margin of activity. In particular, we estimate two-part quasi-maximum-likelihood models using panel data on the foreign activity of German MNEs in the decade 1996-2005 and find that statutory tax rates affect MNE activity negatively both at the extensive and at the intensive margin of investment, while DTTs primarily induce a positive effect at the extensive margin.

Cross-country Services Versus Manufacturing Activity of Multinational Firms in Response to Services Versus Goods Policy

This paper assesses the consequences of trade costs on goods and services for the distribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) across goods and services as well as across countries. The paper employs data on the universe of German FDI abroad which are collected at the firm level and aggregated for the purpose of this paper to two sectors – goods and services – and 79 countries, using data for the year 2005. Key findings are that services trade costs as reflected in the services trade restrictiveness index and bilateral investment treaty membership are the most important policy drivers of the activity of German-owned multinational firms in both goods and services. An increase in services trade restrictions raises goods activity at the expense of services activity. This effect is more pronounced the more important host countries in terms of the German FDI are.

MEASURING THE INTERDEPENDENCE OF MULTINATIONAL FIRMS' FOREIGN INVESTMENTS

Earlier work found evidence for geographic linkages of aggregate foreign direct investment across countries and country‐pairs. From a theoretical point of view, such linkages at the macroeconomic level may root in between‐firm as well as within‐firm linkages and originate from information spillovers across or within firms in exploring unknown markets, and vertical linkages between production plants across different locations within the firm. We use data on the universe of German multinational enterprises (MNEs) to empirically explore how marginal investments at one foreign affiliate depend on investments at other affiliates within the same MNE. The empirical approach employs two channels or modes of cross‐affiliate interdependence: mere geography (capturing horizontal linkages through correlated learning and horizontal competition within the firm) and input–output relationships within or across industries (which capture vertical linkages). Adding to earlier findings at the aggregate level, we find evidence of a significant interdependence of investments within the firm. In the firm‐level data at hand, vertical linkages appear to be more important than horizontal ones. Investments at one location tend to stimulate investments at other locations of the same MNE, particularly if input linkages are strong. The opposite seems to be true for output linkages. Beyond vertical linkages, mere geographic proximity matters only to a minor extent. This suggests that evidence of linkages through geographic closeness at aggregate data levels accrue mainly to reasons of vertical linkages within networks of affiliates. (JEL C31, D22, F21, F23, F68, G31, H32)