Valerie A. Ramey

Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending

Changes in government spending often lead to significant shifts in demand across sectors. This paper analyzes the effects of sector-specific changes in government spending in a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model in which the reallocation of capital across sectors is costly. The two-sector model leads to a richer array of possible responses of aggregate variables than the one-sector model. The empirical part of the paper estimates the effects of military buildups on a variety of macroeconomic variables using a new measure of military shocks. The behavior of macroeconomic aggregates is consistent with the predictions of a multi-sector neoclassical model. In particular, consumption, real product wages and manufacturing productivity fall in response to exogenous military buildups in the post-World War II United States.

The Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission

This paper presents evidence that the cost channel may be an important part of the monetary transmission mechanism. We first highlight three puzzles that might be explained by a cost channel of monetary transmission. We then provide evidence on the importance of working capital and argue why monetary contractions can affect output through a supply channel as well as the traditional demand-type channels. Using a vector autoregression analysis, we investigate the effects across industries. Following a monetary contraction, many industries exhibit periods of falling output and rising price-wage ratios, consistent with a supply shock. The effects are noticeably more pronounced during the period before 1979.

Foreign Competition, Market Power, and Wage Inequality

This paper investigates the link between the trend in the returns to education and foreign competition in concentrated industries. We argue that the impact of foreign competition on the relative wages of less skilled workers depends on the market structure of the industry penetrated. The empirical evidence indicates that employment changes in a small group of trade-impacted concentrated industries can explain not only part of the aggregate rise in wage inequality in the United States, but also some of the differences in the trends in wage inequality across metropolitan areas.

Displaced Capital: A Study of Aerospace Plant Closings

Using equipment‐level data from aerospace plants that closed during the 1990s, this paper studies the process of moving installed physical capital to a new use. The analysis yields three results that suggest significant sectoral specificity of physical capital and substantial costs of redeploying the capital. First, other aerospace companies are overrepresented among buyers of the used capital relative to their representation in the market for new investment goods. Second, even after age‐related depreciation is taken into account, capital sells for a substantial discount relative to replacement cost; the more specialized the type of capital, the greater the discount. Yet, capital sold to other aerospace firms fetches a higher price than capital sold to industry outsiders. Finally, the process of winding down operations and selling the equipment takes several years.

How Important is the Credit Channel in the Transmission of Monetary Policy

This paper empirically tests the importance of the credit channel in the transmission of monetary policy. Three credit variables are analyzed: total bank loans, bank holdings of securities relative to loans, and the difference in the growth rate of short-term debt of small and large firms. In order to determine the marginal effect of the credit channel over the standard money channel, the significance of the credit variables is studied in a model that includes money (M2). In most cases, the credit variables play an insignificant role in the impact of monetary policy shocks on output.

Nonconvex Costs and the Behavior of Inventories

This paper explores one possible explanation for the apparent excess volatility of production relative to sales: nonconvexities in the technology facing firms. It is shown that if firms operate in a region of declining marginal costs, then small shifts in demand can cause production to jump substantially. Estimates for six production-to-stock industries as well as the automobile industry suggest that all these industries behave as if they were operating in the region of nonconvex costs. The results have important implications not only for inventory investment but also for the cyclical behavior of productivity and prices.

The Rug Rat Race

After three decades of decline, the amount of time spent by parents on childcare in the United States began to rise dramatically in the mid-1990s. This increase was particularly pronounced among college-educated parents. Less educated mothers increased their childcare time by over 4 hours per week, and college-educated mothers increased theirs by over 9 hours per week. Fathers showed the same patterns, but with smaller magnitudes. Why would highly educated parents increase the time they allocate to childcare at the same time that their returns from paid employment have skyrocketed? Finding no empirical support for standard explanations, such as selection or income effects, we argue instead that increased competition for college admissions may be an important factor. We provide empirical support for our explanation with a comparison of trends between the United States and Canada, across ethnic groups in the United States, and across U.S. states.

Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data

A key question that has arisen during recent debates is whether government spending multipliers are larger during times when resources are idle. This paper seeks to shed light on this question by analyzing new quarterly historical data covering multiple large wars and depressions in the U.S. and Canada. Using an extension of Ramey’s (2011) military news series and Jorda’s (2005) method for estimating impulse responses, we find no evidence that multipliers are greater during periods of high unemployment in the U.S. In every case, the estimated multipliers are below unity. We do find some evidence of higher multipliers during periods of slack in Canada, with some multipliers above unity.

The effects of market organization on conspiracies in restraint of trade

Abstract Mindful of the market structure-conduct-performance paradigm fundamental to industrial organization research, this paper uses laboratory experimental techniques to study the impact of conspiratorial opportunities on market performance. We compare ‘posted-offer’ markets where sellers (but not buyers) are all conspiratorial opportunities with observations from three control groups: (1) posted-offer markets without conspiratorial opportunities, (2) ‘double-auction’ markets with conspiratorial opportunities and (3) posted-offer markets with true single-seller monopolists. The basic conclusions generated by our experimental design are: (1) seller conspiracies in posted-offer markets tend to raise prices (but not profits) relative to similarly organized markets without conspiracies, (2) posted-offer conspiracies tend to generate higher prices (but not profits) than double-auction conspiracies, and (3) posted-offer monopolies tend to generate higher profits (but not prices) then posted-offer conspiracies.

Time Spent in Home Production in the Twentieth-Century United States: New Estimates from Old Data

This article presents new estimates of time spent in home production in the United States during the twentieth century. Historical time-diary studies for various segments of the population are linked to estimates from recent time use surveys. The new estimates suggest that time spent in home production by prime-age women fell by around six hours from 1900 to 1965 and by another 12 hours from 1965 to 2005. Time spent by prime-age men rose by 13 hours from 1900 to 2005. Average across the entire population, per capita time spent in home production increased slightly over the century.