Valerie Lattimer

Emergency and on-demand health care: modelling a large complex system

This paper describes how system dynamics was used as a central part of a whole-system review of emergency and on-demand health care in Nottingham, England. Based on interviews with 30 key individuals across health and social care, a ‘conceptual map’ of the system was developed, showing potential patient pathways through the system. This was used to construct a stock-flow model, populated with current activity data, in order to simulate patient flows and to identify system bottle-necks. Without intervention, assuming current trends continue, Nottingham hospitals are unlikely to reach elective admission targets or achieve the government target of 82% bed occupancy. Admissions from general practice had the greatest influence on occupancy rates. Preventing a small number of emergency admissions in elderly patients showed a substantial effect, reducing bed occupancy by 1% per annum over 5 years. Modelling indicated a range of undesirable outcomes associated with continued growth in demand for emergency care, but also considerable potential to intervene to alleviate these problems, in particular by increasing the care options available in the community.

Reviewing emergency care systems I: insights from system dynamics modelling.

Objectives: To describe the components of an emergency and urgent care system within one health authority and to investigate ways in which patient flows and system capacity could be improved. Methods: Using a qualitative system dynamics (SD) approach, data from interviews were used to build a conceptual map of the system illustrating patient pathways from entry to discharge. The map was used to construct a quantitative SD model populated with demographic and activity data to simulate patterns of demand, activity, contingencies, and system bottlenecks. Using simulation experiments, a range of scenarios were tested to determine their likely effectiveness in meeting future objectives and targets. Results: Emergency hospital admissions grew at a faster annual rate than the national average for 1998–2001. Without intervention, and assuming this trend continued, acute hospitals were likely to have difficulty sustaining levels of elective work, in reaching elective admission targets and in achieving bed occupancy targets. General practice admissions exerted the greatest influence on occupancy rates. Prevention of emergency admissions for older people (3%–6% each year) reduced bed occupancy in both hospitals by 1% per annum over five years. Prevention of emergency admissions for patients with chronic respiratory disease affected occupancy less noticeably, but because of the seasonal pattern of admissions, had an effect on peak winter occupancy. Conclusions: Modelling showed the potential consequences of continued growth in demand for emergency care, but also considerable scope to intervene to ameliorate the worst case scenarios, in particular by increasing the care management options available in the community.

Telephone triage for management of same-day consultation requests in general practice (the ESTEEM trial): a cluster-randomised controlled trial and cost-consequence analysis.

BACKGROUND Telephone triage is increasingly used to manage workload in primary care; however, supporting evidence for this approach is scarce. We aimed to assess the effectiveness and cost consequences of general practitioner-(GP)-led and nurse-led telephone triage compared with usual care for patients seeking same-day consultations in primary care. METHODS We did a pragmatic, cluster-randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation between March 1, 2011, and March 31, 2013, at 42 practices in four centres in the UK. Practices were randomly assigned (1:1:1), via a computer-generated randomisation sequence minimised for geographical location, practice deprivation, and practice list size, to either GP-led triage, nurse-led computer-supported triage, or usual care. We included patients who telephoned the practice seeking a same-day face-to-face consultation with a GP. Allocations were concealed from practices until after they had agreed to participate and a stochastic element was included within the minimisation algorithm to maintain concealment. Patients, clinicians, and researchers were not masked to allocation, but practice assignment was concealed from the trial statistician. The primary outcome was primary care workload (patient contacts, including those attending accident and emergency departments) in the 28 days after the first same-day request. Analyses were by intention to treat and per protocol. This trial was registered with the ISRCTN register, number ISRCTN20687662. FINDINGS We randomly assigned 42 practices to GP triage (n=13), nurse triage (n=15), or usual care (n=14), and 20,990 patients (n=6695 vs 7012 vs 7283) were randomly assigned, of whom 16,211 (77%) patients provided primary outcome data (n=5171 vs 5468 vs 5572). GP triage was associated with a 33% increase in the mean number of contacts per person over 28 days compared with usual care (2·65 [SD 1·74] vs 1·91 [1·43]; rate ratio [RR] 1·33, 95% CI 1·30-1·36), and nurse triage with a 48% increase (2·81 [SD 1·68]; RR 1·48, 95% CI 1·44-1·52). Eight patients died within 7 days of the index request: five in the GP-triage group, two in the nurse-triage group, and one in the usual-care group; however, these deaths were not associated with the trial group or procedures. Although triage interventions were associated with increased contacts, estimated costs over 28 days were similar between all three groups (roughly £75 per patient). INTERPRETATION Introduction of telephone triage delivered by a GP or nurse was associated with an increase in the number of primary care contacts in the 28 days after a patients request for a same-day GP consultation, with similar costs to those of usual care. Telephone triage might be useful in aiding the delivery of primary care. The whole-system implications should be assessed when introduction of such a system is considered. FUNDING Health Technology Assessment Programme UK National Institute for Health Research.

Reviewing emergency care systems. 2: measuring patient preferences using a discrete choice experiment

Objective: To investigate patients’ strength of preferences for attributes associated with modernising delivery of out of hours emergency care services in Nottingham. Methods: A discrete choice experiment was applied to quantify preferences for key attributes of out of hours emergency care. The attributes reflected the findings of previous research, current policy initiatives, and discussions with local key stakeholders. A self complete questionnaire was administered to NHS Direct callers and adults attending accident and emergency, GP services and NHS walk-in centre. Regression analysis was used to estimate the relative importance of the different attributes. Results: Response was 74% (n = 457) although 61% (n = 378) were useable. All attributes were statistically significant. Being consulted by a doctor was the most important attribute. This was followed by being consulted by a nurse, being kept informed about waiting time, and quality of the consultation. Respondents were prepared to wait an extra 2 hours 20 minutes to be consulted by a doctor. There were no measurable preference differences between patients surveyed at different NHS entry points. Younger respondents preferred single telephone call access to health care out of hours. Although having services provided close to home and making contact in person were generally preferred, they were less important than others, suggesting that a range of service locations may be acceptable to patients. Conclusions: This study showed that local solutions for reforming emergency out of hours care should take account of the strength of patient preferences. The method was acceptable and the results have directly informed the development of a local service framework for emergency care.

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of telephone triage for managing same-day consultation requests in general practice: a cluster randomised controlled trial comparing general practitioner-led and nurse-led management systems with usual care (the ESTEEM trial)

BACKGROUND Telephone triage is proposed as a method of managing increasing demand for primary care. Previous studies have involved small samples in limited settings, and focused on nurse roles. Evidence is limited regarding the impact on primary care workload, costs, and patient safety and experience when triage is used to manage patients requesting same-day consultations in general practice. OBJECTIVES In comparison with usual care (UC), to assess the impact of GP-led telephone triage (GPT) and nurse-led computer-supported telephone triage (NT) on primary care workload and cost, patient experience of care, and patient safety and health status for patients requesting same-day consultations in general practice. DESIGN Pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial, incorporating economic evaluation and qualitative process evaluation. SETTING General practices (n = 42) in four regions of England, UK (Devon, Bristol/Somerset, Warwickshire/Coventry, Norfolk/Suffolk). PARTICIPANTS Patients requesting same-day consultations. INTERVENTIONS Practices were randomised to GPT, NT or UC. Data collection was not blinded; however, analysis was conducted by a statistician blinded to practice allocation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Primary - primary care contacts [general practice, out-of-hours primary care, accident and emergency (A&E) and walk-in centre attendances] in the 28 days following the index consultation request. Secondary - resource use and costs, patient safety (deaths and emergency hospital admissions within 7 days of index request, and A&E attendance within 28 days), health status and experience of care. RESULTS Of 20,990 eligible randomised patients (UC n = 7283; GPT n = 6695; NT n = 7012), primary outcome data were analysed for 16,211 patients (UC n = 5572; GPT n = 5171; NT n = 5468). Compared with UC, GPT and NT increased primary outcome contacts (over 28-day follow-up) by 33% [rate ratio (RR) 1.33, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.30 to 1.36] and 48% (RR 1.48, 95% CI 1.44 to 1.52), respectively. Compared with GPT, NT was associated with a marginal increase in primary outcome contacts by 4% (RR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.08). Triage was associated with a redistribution of primary care contacts. Although GPT, compared with UC, increased the rate of overall GP contacts (face to face and telephone) over the 28 days by 38% (RR 1.38, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.50), GP face-to-face contacts were reduced by 39% (RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.69). NT reduced the rate of overall GP contacts by 16% (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.91) and GP face-to-face contacts by 20% (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.90), whereas nurse contacts increased. The increased rate of primary care contacts in triage arms is largely attributable to increased telephone contacts. Estimated overall patient-clinician contact time on the index day increased in triage (GPT = 10.3 minutes; NT = 14.8 minutes; UC = 9.6 minutes), although patterns of clinician use varied between arms. Taking account of both the pattern and duration of primary outcome contacts, overall costs over the 28-day follow-up were similar in all three arms (approximately £75 per patient). Triage appeared safe, and no differences in patient health status were observed. NT was somewhat less acceptable to patients than GPT or UC. The process evaluation identified the complexity associated with introducing triage but found no consistency across practices about what works and what does not work when implementing it. CONCLUSIONS Introducing GPT or NT was associated with a redistribution of primary care workload for patients requesting same-day consultations, and at similar cost to UC. Although triage seemed to be safe, investigation of the circumstances of a larger number of deaths or admissions after triage might be warranted, and monitoring of these events is necessary as triage is implemented. TRIAL REGISTRATION Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN20687662. FUNDING This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 13. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of telephone triage of patients requesting same day consultations in general practice: study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial comparing nurse-led and GP-led management systems (ESTEEM)

BackgroundRecent years have seen an increase in primary care workload, especially following the introduction of a new General Medical Services contract in 2004. Telephone triage and telephone consultation with patients seeking health care represent initiatives aimed at improving access to care. Some evidence suggests that such approaches may be feasible but conclusions regarding GP workload, cost, and patients’ experience of care, safety, and health status are equivocal. The ESTEEM trial aims to assess the clinical- and cost-effectiveness of nurse-led computer-supported telephone triage and GP-led telephone triage, compared to usual care, for patients requesting same-day consultations in general practice.Methods/designESTEEM is a pragmatic, multi-centre cluster randomised clinical trial with patients randomised at practice level to usual care, computer decision-supported nurse triage, or GP-led triage. Following triage of 350–550 patients per practice we anticipate estimating and comparing total primary care workload (volume and time), the economic cost to the NHS, and patient experience of care, safety, and health status in the 4-week period following the index same-day consultation request across the three trial conditions.We will recruit all patients seeking a non-emergency same-day appointment in primary care. Patients aged 12.0–15.9 years and temporary residents will be excluded from the study.The primary outcome is the number of healthcare contacts taking place in the 4-week period following (and including) the index same-day consultation request. A range of secondary outcomes will be examined including patient flow, primary care NHS resource use, patients’ experience of care, safety, and health status.The estimated sample size required is 3,751 patients (11,253 total) in each of the three trial conditions, to detect a mean difference of 0.36 consultations per patient in the four week follow-up period between either intervention group and usual care 90% power, 5% alpha, and an estimated intracluster correlation coefficient ICC of 0.05. The primary analysis will be based on the intention-to-treat principle and take the form of a random effects regression analysis taking account of the hierarchical nature of the study design. Statistical models will allow for adjustment for practice level minimisation variables and patient-level baseline covariates shown to differ at baseline.Trial registrationCurrent Controlled Trials ISCRTN20687662

A national survey of computerized decision support systems available to nurses in England

AIM To examine the characteristics of computerized decision support systems (CDSS) currently available to nurses working in the National Health Service (NHS) in England. METHOD A questionnaire survey sent to a stratified random sample of 50% of all NHS care providers (Trusts) in England, asking respondents to provide information on CDSS currently used by nurses. RESULTS Responses were received from 108 of the 277 Trusts included in the sample. Electronic patient record systems were the most common type of CDSS reported by Trusts (n = 61) but they were least likely to have features that have been associated with improved clinical outcomes. CONCLUSIONS The availability of CDSS with features that have been associated with improved patient outcomes for nurses in the NHS in England is limited. There is some evidence that the nature of the Trust affects whether or not nurses have access to CDSS to assist their decision making. IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING MANAGEMENT The implementation of CDSS is increasing throughout the NHS. Many CDSS are introduced without adequate evidence to support its introduction and there is little evaluation of the benefits once they are implemented. Policy makers and nursing management should consider whether the introduction of CDSS aids nurse decision making and benefits patient outcomes.

Management of out-of-hours calls by a general practice cooperative: a geographical analysis of telephone access and consultation

BACKGROUND Centralization of urgent care services may reduce access for patients living further away from primary care centres (PCCs). Telephone-based access is often proposed to remedy this. OBJECTIVE To examine the effect of distance and rurality on the doctors decision to manage the call by telephone or face-to-face. METHODS Geographical analysis of routine data on calls to an out-of-hours cooperative, including logistic regression to examine the effects of distance and rurality on triage decisions. RESULTS For distances >6 km, the likelihood of receiving telephone advice only increased progressively with increasing distance from the PCC (Model 1). However, for those patients seen face-to-face, overall, there was increased likelihood of receiving a home visit (compared with PCC attendance) with increasing distance (Model 2). CONCLUSIONS Patients experience differences in how their call to out-of-hours services is managed depending on where they live. Telephone access and consultation can be used to overcome geographical barriers but do not necessarily make access geographically equitable. Those who live furthest away are more likely to receive telephone advice rather than being seen face-to-face, but paradoxically, those who do get a home visit are more likely to live at a greater distance from the PCC. These findings present important challenges to proposals to integrate urgent care services and increase telephone-based provision and suggest that attention should be given to configuring services to ensure geographical equity of access, regardless of how far away people live from health services.

Implementing telephone triage in general practice: a process evaluation of a cluster randomised controlled trial

BackgroundTelephone triage represents one strategy to manage demand for face-to-face GP appointments in primary care. However, limited evidence exists of the challenges GP practices face in implementing telephone triage. We conducted a qualitative process evaluation alongside a UK-based cluster randomised trial (ESTEEM) which compared the impact of GP-led and nurse-led telephone triage with usual care on primary care workload, cost, patient experience, and safety for patients requesting a same-day GP consultation.The aim of the process study was to provide insights into the observed effects of the ESTEEM trial from the perspectives of staff and patients, and to specify the circumstances under which triage is likely to be successfully implemented. Here we report perspectives of staff.MethodsThe intervention comprised implementation of either GP-led or nurse-led telephone triage for a period of 2-3 months. A qualitative evaluation was conducted using staff interviews recruited from eight general practices (4 GP triage, 4 Nurse triage) in the UK, implementing triage as part of the ESTEEM trial. Qualitative interviews were undertaken with 44 staff members in GP triage and nurse triage practices (16 GPs, 8 nurses, 7 practice managers, 13 administrative staff).ResultsStaff reported diverse experiences and perceptions regarding the implementation of telephone triage, its effects on workload, and on the benefits of triage. Such diversity were explained by the different ways triage was organised, the staffing models used to support triage, how the introduction of triage was communicated across practice staff, and by how staff roles were reconfigured as a result of implementing triage.ConclusionThe findings from the process evaluation offer insight into the range of ways GP practices participating in ESTEEM implemented telephone triage, and the circumstances under which telephone triage can be successfully implemented beyond the context of a clinical trial. Staff experiences and perceptions of telephone triage are shaped by the way practices communicate with staff, prepare for and sustain the changes required to implement triage effectively, as well as by existing practice culture, and staff and patient behaviour arising in response to the changes made.Trial registrationCurrent Controlled Trials ISRCTN20687662. Registered 28 May 2009.

Do telephones overcome geographical barriers to general practice out-of-hours services? Mixed-methods study of parents with young children

Objective To examine if telephones overcome geographical barriers to accessing primary care out-of-hours by parents of young children. Methods Mixed methods including quantitative analysis of 5697 calls about children aged 0-4 years, 30 hours of observation at primary care centres, eight interviews with parents and a review of 80 telephone call recordings. Results Call rates for children (0-4 years) decreased with increasing distance: the 20% of people who lived furthest from a primary care centre made fewer calls, 570 per 1000 patients/year (95% CI 558 to 582) than the 20% living closest, 652 (95% CI 644 to 661). Overall, call rates decreased with increasing rurality. Qualitative analysis suggested that this geographical variation was linked to familiarity with the system (notably previous contact with health services) and the availability of services, legitimacy of demand (particularly for children) and negotiation about mode of care. Conclusions People already disadvantaged by their distance from facilities or socioeconomic circumstances may continue to be at a disadvantage when services are provided by telephone.