Vassilios Babalos

Testing for Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance and the Ex Post Verification Problem: Evidence From the Greek Market

The present study examines a series of performance measures with the aim of solving the ex-post verification problem. These measures are employed to test the performance persistence hypothesis of domestic equity funds in Greece, during the period 1998–2004. Correctly adjusting for risk factors and documented portfolio strategies explains a significant part of the reported persistence. The intercept of the augmented Carhart regression is proposed as the most appropriate performance measure. Using this measure, weak evidence for persistence, only before 2001, is documented. The growth of the fund industry, the direction of flows to past winners and the integration in the international financial system are suggested to be the reasons for the absence of performance persistence.

Spurious results in testing mutual fund performance persistence: evidence from the Greek market

The present study shows that failing to adjust for known risk factors in measuring fund performance can lead to spurious results in testing the persistence hypothesis. We support this argument by providing evidence from the Greek fund industry, examining also the performance persistence in this small and relatively unexplored market. Correct adjustments for risk factors and documented portfolio strategies, account for a significant part of the previously reported persistence. The intercept of the augmented Carhart regression is suggested to be the most appropriate performance measure.

Exploring the interaction between stock price index and exchange rates: an asymmetric threshold approach

This article examines the impact of stock market news on the foreign exchange markets of USA, Canada and UK, employing an innovative extension of the asymmetric threshold model of Apergis and Miller (2006). Under this framework we can disentangle the reaction of foreign exchange market to bad or good news and small or large news of stock returns. Our comprehensive daily data-set spans the period from January 1990 to June 2014. Using a cointegration and error correction model, we document the existence of a causal relationship between stock market and foreign exchange markets. Most interestingly, our results derived from the asymmetric threshold model confirm that the relationship between stock and foreign exchange markets is sensitive to short-term good or bad news and short-term small or large news. Our findings entail significant implications for policymakers, governments, risk managers and international investors.

Are there long-run diversification gains from the Dow Jones Islamic finance index?

We compare a nonlinear (time-varying) cointegration test with the standard cointegration test in studying the long-run relationship of the Dow Jones Islamic finance index with three other conventional global equity market indices. Our results show that there is a long-run nonlinear cointegrating relationship between the Dow Jones Islamic stock market index and other conventional stock market indices, which is not picked up by the linear cointegration test. Thus, Islamic markets seem to offer little, if any, long-run diversification to international investors.

Herding, anti-herding behaviour in metal commodities futures: a novel portfolio-based approach

The purpose of this article is twofold. Motivated by the heated debate on the financialization of commodities, we examine the existence of herding behaviour in metal commodities futures. In order to identify any time-dependent properties reflected in time-varying parameters, we employ the overlapping rolling window regression technique. The empirical evidence confirms a time-varying anti-herding behaviour before the global financial crisis and the absence of herding or anti-herding behaviour during the crisis. Next we attempt to formally establish the link between the documented anti-herding behaviour and portfolio management with the use of dynamic conditional correlations via the DCC-GARCH family multivariate modelling. After specifying the correlations, an in-sample recursive dynamic Markowitz portfolio is constructed and monitored. By doing so, we attribute the anti-herding behaviour to different portfolio positioning and rebalancing. On the other hand, in the absence of herding or anti-herding behaviour, we document a shift in the correlations and covariances of the commodity futures especially during the crisis, resulting in a decrease of the portfolio weights together with a substantial cash flow towards the risk-free asset.

Predictability of sustainable investments and the role of uncertainty: evidence from a non-parametric causality-in-quantiles test

ABSTRACT In this article, we examine sustainable investments returns predictability based on the U.S. Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI) and a wide set of uncertainty and financial distress indicators for the period 2002:01–2014:12. To this end, we employ a novel non-parametric causality-in-quantile approach that captures non-linearities in returns distribution. Based on our findings we conclude that the aggregate economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indicator and some components have predictive ability for real returns of the U.S. sustainable investments index. Moreover, if we split our sample to before and after the global financial crisis our results suggest that predictors carry causal information for real returns only in the after-crisis period. Finally, some marginal evidence of predictability from sovereign debt is also observed at the lower and upper ends of the conditional distribution of the real returns of sustainable investments. Our results might entail policy implications for investors and market authorities.

Dynamic Properties of the Bitcoin and the US Market

This paper examines the dynamic properties of Bitcoin and the Standard and Poor’s SP500 index, using a variety of econometric approaches, including univariate and multivariate GARCH models, and vector autoregressive specifications. Moreover, we explore whether Bitcoin can be classified as a possible hedge, diversifier, or safehaven with respect to the US market, and if it possesses any of the attributes Gold has. Our results indicate that Bitcoin does not actually hold any of the hedge, diversifier, or safe-haven properties; rather, it exhibits intrinsic attributes not related to US market developments.

Herding, Faith-Based Investments and the Global Financial Crisis: Empirical Evidence From Static and Dynamic Models

ABSTRACT The purpose for this article is to explore the existence of herding behavior in the context of Shariah-based ethical investments. To this end the authors have employed the highly liquid constituent stocks of the U.S. Dow Jones Islamic Index for the period January 2007 to December 2014. The methodology encompasses both static and dynamic models that capture potential time-varying patterns or asymmetric behavior of herding. Summarizing the results, the authors document significant antiherding behavior that is robust across different formulations and testing procedures. Most interestingly, they observe an asymmetric behavior of the antiherding phenomenon. Results from the dynamic analysis reveal that antiherding tends to be more intense during turbulent periods. The findings may entail useful implications for investors who wish to diversify their portfolios using faith-based investments.

Equity Fund Flows and Stock Market Returns in the US Before and After the Global Financial Crisis: A VAR-GARCH-in-mean Analysis

The 2008—2009 global financial crisis has raised new questions about the relationship between equity fund flows and stock market returns. This paper analyses it using US monthly data over the period 2000:1-2015:08. A VAR-GARCH(1,1)-in-mean model with a BEKK representation is estimated, and a switch dummy for the global financial crisis is also included. We find causality-in-mean from stock market returns to equity fund flows (consistently with the feedback-trading hypothesis) only in the post-September 2008 period. There are also volatility spillovers from stock market returns to equity fund flows both before and after the crisis; however, this relationship is not stable, becoming weaker in the crisis period. As a robustness check we augment the model with a set of macroeconomic control variables. Their inclusion does not affect the main results.

Oil Price and Consumer Price Nexus in South Africa Revisited: A Novel Asymmetric Causality Approach

The relationship between oil and the price level has always garnered the attention from policy makers and researchers. Periods of high oil price volatility is thought to induce negative repercussions for domestic price levels in an oil importing country. Research in the past has revealed that there exists an asymmetric component in the causal relationship between oil prices and consumer prices. To this end, we opt for a novel asymmetric causality test developed by Hatemi-J (2012) to explore the relationship between international oil prices and the price level in South Africa for a period that runs from 1921: M02 to 2013: M10. This method disentangles the effects of positive shocks from negatives ones allowing to test for an asymmetric relationship. Our evidence are in favour of a causal relationship that runs from oil prices to the price level, but this relationship is observed only for the short term since there is no long run cointegrating relationship. The asymmetric tests reveal that both a positive and negative oil price shock leads to a positive price level shock, however the evidence in favour of a negative oil price shock is stronger.