Ver Bilano

Global trends and projections for tobacco use, 1990–2025: an analysis of smoking indicators from the WHO Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control

BACKGROUND Countries have agreed on reduction targets for tobacco smoking stipulated in the WHO global monitoring framework, for achievement by 2025. In an analysis of data for tobacco smoking prevalence from nationally representative survey data, we aimed to provide comprehensive estimates of recent trends in tobacco smoking, projections for future tobacco smoking, and country-level estimates of probabilities of achieving tobacco smoking targets. METHODS We used a Bayesian hierarchical meta-regression modelling approach using data from the WHO Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control to assess trends from 1990 to 2010 and made projections up to 2025 for current tobacco smoking, daily tobacco smoking, current cigarette smoking, and daily cigarette smoking for 173 countries for men and 178 countries for women. Modelling was implemented in Python with DisMod-MR and PyMC. We estimated trends in country-specific prevalence of tobacco use, projections for future tobacco use, and probabilities for decreased tobacco use, increased tobacco use, and achievement of targets for tobacco control from posterior distributions. FINDINGS During the most recent decade (2000-10), the prevalence of tobacco smoking in men fell in 125 (72%) countries, and in women fell in 156 (88%) countries. If these trends continue, only 37 (21%) countries are on track to achieve their targets for men and 88 (49%) are on track for women, and there would be an estimated 1·1 billion current tobacco smokers (95% credible interval 700 million to 1·6 billion) in 2025. Rapid increases are predicted in Africa for men and in the eastern Mediterranean for both men and women, suggesting the need for enhanced measures for tobacco control in these regions. INTERPRETATION Our findings show that striking between-country disparities in tobacco use would persist in 2025, with many countries not on track to achieve tobacco control targets and several low-income and middle-income countries at risk of worsening tobacco epidemics if these trends remain unchanged. Immediate, effective, and sustained action is necessary to attain and maintain desirable trajectories for tobacco control and achieve global convergence towards elimination of tobacco use. FUNDING Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan; Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports and Technology, Japan; Department of Health, Australia; Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Risk Factors of Pre-Eclampsia/Eclampsia and Its Adverse Outcomes in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A WHO Secondary Analysis

Background Pre-eclampsia has an immense adverse impact on maternal and perinatal health especially in low- and middle-income settings. We aimed to estimate the associations between pre-eclampsia/eclampsia and its risk factors, and adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes. Methods We performed a secondary analysis of the WHO Global Survey on Maternal and Perinatal Health. The survey was a multi-country, facility-based cross-sectional study. A global sample consisting of 24 countries from three regions and 373 health facilities was obtained via a stratified multi-stage cluster sampling design. Maternal and offspring data were extracted from records using standardized questionnaires. Multi-level logistic regression modelling was conducted with random effects at the individual, facility and country levels. Results Data for 276,388 mothers and their infants was analysed. The prevalence of pre-eclampsia/eclampsia in the study population was 10,754 (4%). At the individual level, sociodemographic characteristics of maternal age ≥30 years and low educational attainment were significantly associated with higher risk of pre-eclampsia/eclampsia. As for clinical and obstetric variables, high body mass index (BMI), nulliparity (AOR: 2.04; 95%CI 1.92–2.16), absence of antenatal care (AOR: 1.41; 95%CI 1.26–1.57), chronic hypertension (AOR: 7.75; 95%CI 6.77–8.87), gestational diabetes (AOR: 2.00; 95%CI 1.63–2.45), cardiac or renal disease (AOR: 2.38; 95%CI 1.86–3.05), pyelonephritis or urinary tract infection (AOR: 1.13; 95%CI 1.03–1.24) and severe anemia (AOR: 2.98; 95%CI 2.47–3.61) were found to be significant risk factors, while having >8 visits of antenatal care was protective (AOR: 0.90; 95%CI 0.83–0.98). Pre-eclampsia/eclampsia was found to be a significant risk factor for maternal death, perinatal death, preterm birth and low birthweight. Conclusion Chronic hypertension, obesity and severe anemia were the highest risk factors of preeclampsia/eclampsia. Implementation of effective interventions prioritizing risk factors, provision of quality health services during pre-pregnancy and during pregnancy for joint efforts in the areas of maternal health are recommended.

Maternal anemia and risk of adverse birth and health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Anemia is a leading cause of maternal deaths and adverse pregnancy outcomes in developing countries. OBJECTIVES We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the pooled prevalence of anemia, the association between maternal anemia and pregnancy outcomes, and the population-attributable fraction (PAF) of these outcomes that are due to anemia in low- and middle-income countries. DESIGN PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, and the British Nursing Index were searched from inception to May 2015 to identify cohort studies of the association between maternal anemia and pregnancy outcomes. The anemic group was defined as having hemoglobin concentrations <10 or <11 g/dL or hematocrit values <33% or <34% depending on the study. A metaregression and stratified analysis were performed to assess the effects of study and participant characteristics on adverse pregnancy risk. The pooled prevalence of anemia in pregnant women by region and country-income category was calculated with the use of a random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS Of 8182 articles reviewed, 29 studies were included in the systematic review, and 26 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Overall, 42.7% (95% CI: 37.0%, 48.4%) of women experienced anemia during pregnancy in low- and middle-income countries. There were significantly higher risks of low birth weight (RR: 1.31; 95% CI: 1.13, 1.51), preterm birth (RR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.33, 2.01), perinatal mortality (RR: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.30, 1.76), and neonatal mortality (RR: 2.72; 95% CI: 1.19, 6.25) in pregnant women with anemia. South Asian, African, and low-income countries had a higher pooled anemia prevalence than did other Asian and upper-middle-income countries. Overall, in low- and middle-income countries, 12% of low birth weight, 19% of preterm births, and 18% of perinatal mortality were attributable to maternal anemia. The proportion of adverse pregnancy outcomes attributable to anemia was higher in low-income countries and in the South Asian region. CONCLUSION Maternal anemia remains a significant health problem in low- and middle-income countries.

Maternal body mass index and risk of birth and maternal health outcomes in low‐ and middle‐income countries: a systematic review and meta‐analysis

We conducted a systematic review and meta‐analysis of population‐based cohort studies of maternal body mass index (BMI) and risk of adverse birth and health outcomes in low‐ and middle‐income countries. PubMed, Embase, CINAHL and the British Nursing Index were searched from inception to February 2014. Forty‐two studies were included. Our study found that maternal underweight was significantly associated with higher risk of preterm birth (odds ratio [OR], 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01–1.27), low birthweight (OR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.50–1.84) and small for gestational age (OR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.69–2.02). Compared with mothers with normal BMI, overweight or obese mothers were at increased odds of gestational diabetes, pregnancy‐induced hypertension, pre‐eclampsia, caesarean delivery and post‐partum haemorrhage. The population‐attributable risk (PAR) indicated that if women were entirely unexposed to overweight or obesity during the pre‐pregnancy or early pregnancy period, 14% to 35% fewer women would develop gestational diabetes, pre‐eclampsia or pregnancy‐induced hypertension in Brazil, China, India, Iran or Thailand. The highest PAR of low birthweight attributable to maternal underweight was found in Iran (20%), followed by India (18%), Thailand (10%) and China (8%). Treatment and prevention of maternal underweight, overweight or obesity may help reduce the burden on maternal and child health in developing countries.

Estimating the burden of foodborne diseases in Japan

Abstract Objective To assess the burden posed by foodborne diseases in Japan using methods developed by the World Health Organization’s Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG). Methods Expert consultation and statistics on food poisoning during 2011 were used to identify three common causes of foodborne disease in Japan: Campylobacter and Salmonella species and enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC). We conducted systematic reviews of English and Japanese literature on the complications caused by these pathogens, by searching Embase, the Japan medical society abstract database and Medline. We estimated the annual incidence of acute gastroenteritis from reported surveillance data, based on estimated probabilities that an affected person would visit a physician and have gastroenteritis confirmed. We then calculated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost in 2011, using the incidence estimates along with disability weights derived from published studies. Findings In 2011, foodborne disease caused by Campylobacter species, Salmonella species and EHEC led to an estimated loss of 6099, 3145 and 463 DALYs in Japan, respectively. These estimated burdens are based on the pyramid reconstruction method; are largely due to morbidity rather than mortality; and are much higher than those indicated by routine surveillance data. Conclusion Routine surveillance data may indicate foodborne disease burdens that are much lower than the true values. Most of the burden posed by foodborne disease in Japan comes from secondary complications. The tools developed by FERG appear useful in estimating disease burdens and setting priorities in the field of food safety.

Burden of disease in Japan: using national and subnational data to inform local health policy.

The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has been instrumental in guiding global health policy development since the early 1990s. The GBD 2010 project provided rich information about the key causes of mortality, disability-adjusted life years, and their associated risk factors in Japan and provided a unique opportunity to incorporate these data into health planning. As part of the latest update of this project, GBD 2013, the Japanese GBD collaborators plan to update and refine the available burden of disease data by incorporating sub-national estimates of the burden of disease at the prefectural level. These estimates will provide health planners and policy makers at both the national and prefectural level with new, more refined tools to adapt local public health initiatives to meet the health needs of local populations. Moreover, they will enable the Japanese health system to better respond to the unique challenges in their rapidly aging population and as a complex combination of non-communicable disease risk factors begin to dominate the policy agenda. Regional collaborations will enable nations to learn from the experiences of other nations that may be at different stages of the epidemiological transition and have different exposure profiles and associated health effects. Such analyses and improvements in the data collection systems will further improve the health of the Japanese, maintain Japans excellent record of health equity, and provide a better understanding of the direction of health policy in the region.

Progress Toward Universal Health Coverage: A Comparative Analysis in 5 South Asian Countries

Importance Achieving universal health coverage is one of the key targets in the newly adopted Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations. Objective To investigate progress toward universal health coverage in 5 South Asian countries and assess inequalities in health services and financial risk protection indicators. Design and Settings In a population-based study, nationally representative household (335 373 households) survey data from Afghanistan (2014 and 2015), Bangladesh (2010 and 2014), India (2012 and 2014), Nepal (2014 and 2015), and Pakistan (2014) were used to calculate relative indices of health coverage, financial risk protection, and inequality in coverage among wealth quintiles. The study was conducted from June 2012 to February 2016. Main Outcomes and Measures Three dimensions of universal health coverage were assessed: access to basic services, financial risk protection, and equity. Composite and indicator-specific coverage rates, stratified by wealth quintiles, were then estimated. Slope and relative index of inequality were used to assess inequalities in service and financial indicators. Results Access to basic care varied substantially across all South Asian countries, with mean rates of overall prevention coverage and treatment coverage of 53.0% (95% CI, 42.2%-63.6%) and 51.2% (95% CI, 45.2%-57.1%) in Afghanistan, 76.5% (95% CI, 61.0%-89.0%) and 44.8% (95% CI, 37.1%-52.5%) in Bangladesh, 74.2% (95% CI, 57.0%-88.1%) and 83.5% (95% CI, 54.4%-99.1%) in India, 76.8% (95% CI, 66.5%-85.7%) and 57.8% (95% CI, 50.1%-65.4%) in Nepal, and 69.8% (95% CI, 58.3%-80.2%) and 50.4% (95% CI, 37.1%-63.6%) in Pakistan. Financial risk protection was generally low, with 15.3% (95% CI, 14.7%-16.0%) of respondents in Afghanistan, 15.8% (95% CI, 14.9%-16.8%) in Bangladesh, 17.9% (95% CI, 17.7%-18.2%) in India, 11.8% (95% CI, 11.8%-11.9%) in Nepal, and 4.4% (95% CI, 4.0%-4.9%) in Pakistan reporting incurred catastrophic payments due to health care costs. Access to at least 4 antenatal care visits, institutional delivery, and presence of skilled attendant during delivery were at least 3 times higher among the wealthiest mothers in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan compared with the rates among poor mothers. Access to institutional delivery was 60 to 65 percentage points higher among wealthy than poor mothers in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan compared with 21 percentage points higher in India. Coverage was least equitable among the countries for adequate sanitation, institutional delivery, and the presence of skilled birth attendants. Conclusions and Relevance Health coverage and financial risk protection was low, and inequality in access to health care remains a serious issue for these South Asian countries. Greater progress is needed to improve treatment and preventive services and financial security.

Smoking-attributable burden of lung cancer in the Philippines.

Background In the Philippines, smoking is highly prevalent and tobacco control policies fail to fully implement the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control provisions. To aid in policy change, intervention implementation, monitoring and evaluation, this study aimed to provide the first internally consistent and latest Philippine estimates of the following: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost due to lung cancer; population-attributable fractions (PAFs) of smoking; and smoking-attributable lung cancer DALYs. Methods This study applied the Global Burden of Disease and Comparative Risk Assessment frameworks to secondary data, supplemented by expert opinion. A comprehensive internally consistent assessment of disease epidemiology was conducted using DISMOD II and disease impact was quantified as DALYs. PAFs were calculated using the smoking impact ratio and Monte Carlo uncertainty analyses were conducted. Results For 2008, lung cancer incidence and mortality estimates were 10 871 cases and 9871 deaths respectively. Lung cancer accounted for an estimated 267 787 DALYs lost, 99% of which were due to years of life lost. Overall, the PAF of smoking was 65% and a total of 173 103 DALYs were smoking-attributable. There were increasing trends in incidence, mortality and DALY rates with age. The majority of incidence (72%), mortality (71%) and disease burden (72%) occurred among men, who also had higher PAF estimates. Conclusions Considerable health gains could be achieved if smoking exposure were reduced in the Philippines. Strong enforcement of measures like increasing taxation to the WHO-endorsed rate, expanding smoke-free environments, and requiring large graphic warnings within a comprehensive tobacco control programme is recommended.

Smoking-attributable burden of lung cancer in the Philippines: a comparative risk assessment

Abstract Background Smoking is highly prevalent in the Philippines. Tobacco control policies fail to fully implement the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control provisions, especially with respect to taxation, smoking bans, sales and marketing restrictions, and cessation support. To aid in policy change and intervention implementation, monitoring, and evaluation, this study aimed to provide the most recent (2008) estimates for the Philippines of: (1) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost due to lung cancer; (2) population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for smoking; and (3) smoking-attributable lung cancer DALYs. Methods This study applied the Global Burden of Disease and Comparative Risk Assessment frameworks to secondary data, supplemented by local expert opinion. A comprehensive internally consistent assessment of disease epidemiology was conducted using the DisMod II model, and disease impact was quantified in the form of DALYs. PAFs were calculated using the smoking impact ratio, which indirectly estimates accumulated smoking exposure. Uncertainty analyses to obtain intervals were conducted per age–sex group via Monte Carlo simulations. Findings For the 2008 Philippine population, aggregated lung cancer incidence and mortality estimates were 10 871 cases and 9871 deaths, respectively. Lung cancer accounted for the loss of an aggregated estimate of 104 442 DALYs, 99% of which were due to years of life lost. Overall, the aggregated PAF for smoking was 62%, and an aggregated total of 64 913 DALYs were attributable to smoking. There were increasing trends in incidence, mortality, and DALY losses with age, the majority of which occurred among males, who also had higher PAF estimates. Interpretation Considerable health gains could be achieved if smoking exposure were eliminated or reduced in the Philippines. Prevention of initiation and support for cessation of smoking through strong enforcement of measures, such as increasing taxation to the WHO-endorsed rate, more stringent sales and marketing restrictions, and development and scaling up of smoking cessation programmes is recommended. Funding None.