Verena C. Griess

Survival of Norway spruce remains higher in mixed stands under a dryer and warmer climate.

Shifts in tree species distributions caused by climatic change are expected to cause severe losses in the economic value of European forestland. However, this projection disregards potential adaptation options such as tree species conversion, shorter production periods, or establishment of mixed species forests. The effect of tree species mixture has, as yet, not been quantitatively investigated for its potential to mitigate future increases in production risks. For the first time, we use survival time analysis to assess the effects of climate, species mixture and soil condition on survival probabilities for Norway spruce and European beech. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models based on an extensive dataset of almost 65,000 trees from the European Forest Damage Survey (FDS)--part of the European-wide Level I monitoring network--predicted a 24% decrease in survival probability for Norway spruce in pure stands at age 120 when unfavorable changes in climate conditions were assumed. Increasing species admixture greatly reduced the negative effects of unfavorable climate conditions, resulting in a decline in survival probabilities of only 7%. We conclude that future studies of forest management under climate change as well as forest policy measures need to take this, as yet unconsidered, strongly advantageous effect of tree species mixture into account.

Hybrid MCDA Methods to Integrate Multiple Ecosystem Services in Forest Management Planning: A Critical Review.

Abstract Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a decision aid frequently used in the field of forest management planning. It includes the evaluation of multiple criteria such as the production of timber and non-timber forest products and tangible as well as intangible values of ecosystem services (ES). Hence, it is beneficial compared to those methods that take a purely financial perspective. Accordingly, MCDA methods are increasingly popular in the wide field of sustainability assessment. Hybrid approaches allow aggregating MCDA and, potentially, other decision-making techniques to make use of their individual benefits and leading to a more holistic view of the actual consequences that come with certain decisions. This review is providing a comprehensive overview of hybrid approaches that are used in forest management planning. Today, the scientific world is facing increasing challenges regarding the evaluation of ES and the trade-offs between them, for example between provisioning and regulating services. As the preferences of multiple stakeholders are essential to improve the decision process in multi-purpose forestry, participatory and hybrid approaches turn out to be of particular importance. Accordingly, hybrid methods show great potential for becoming most relevant in future decision making. Based on the review presented here, the development of models for the use in planning processes should focus on participatory modeling and the consideration of uncertainty regarding available information.

Can native tree species plantations in Panama compete with Teak plantations? An economic estimation.

Panama has the highest rate of change in the area of primary forests within Central America. However, to meet growing timber demands, it became popular over the last decades to establish plantations made up of foreign species such as Tectonagrandis or Pinus spp. In the majority of the cases the species used are well known; their characteristics such as growth performance have been reviewed intensively and can be accessed in numerous publications. Characteristics of Panama’s native tree species of commercial relevance such as Hieronymaalchorneoides, Swieteniamacrophylla and Terminaliaamazonia are largely unknown and have been investigated within the study at hand. Using valuation methods of financial mathematics, the competitive position of these three indigenous species was assessed, the results compared to those of T. grandis stands in the same area. Land costs and taxes were not considered, as they would be the same for all species. Financial estimates for indigenous species will enlarge their acceptance for use in reforestation and plantation projects. Using the NPV method and applying the standard scenario, the profitability of T. grandis is lower than that of T. amazonia and S. macrophylla and lies only slightly above the profitability calculated for H. alchorneoides. This result clearly indicates that the investigated native tree species are comparable with T. grandis regarding their economic profitability. Besides its ecological impact, growing native tree species is now also economically legitimate. By calculating land expectation values for all tree species, ideal rotation lengths could be determined. For these species, considerable flexibility exists regarding the optimal rotation length.

The drivers of market integration among indigenous peoples: Evidence from the ecuadorian Amazon

ABSTRACT Knowledge of the driving forces behind indigenous participation in the market is essential for practitioners intending to integrate conservation and development policies in indigenous territories. Nevertheless, empirical research on the determinants of market integration among indigenous peoples is still scarce. This article uses household survey data and multivariate techniques to examine the drivers of market integration among indigenous groups in the Ecuadorian Amazon. We use multiple measures of market integration, including the sale of crops, timber, and wildlife; the use of credit; and participation in wage labor. The results show that the way in which indigenous peoples integrate into the market depends on their endowments of human, financial, and physical capital. More educated households are able to engage in commercial agriculture and nonagricultural wage work, whereas uneducated poor households in communities in conflict with outsiders are pushed to engage in poorly paid agricultural wage work and (often illegal) timber operations.

Product diversification in South Africa's commercial timber plantations: a way to mitigate investment risk

We used the portfolio method to examine how a forest company can lower investment risk by producing a mix of timber products. We derived optimum combinations of pine (Pinus patula) saw timber production and eucalypt (Eucalyptus grandis) pulpwood production at landscape level. Our results indicate that producing a product mix rather than a single product improves aggregated financial returns and lowers investment risk over multiple rotation periods. The optimum mixture depended on past timber price correlations for pulpwood and sawn timber in South Africa between 1980 and 2011. This ideal mixture is comprised of areal ratios of about 45% saw timber and 55% pulpwood. Our example shows how economic risk of a forest investment can be reduced by creating a portfolio of a number of products. The risk that an investor has to accept for each monetary unit that is expected in return can be reduced by over 40% when comparing the risk–return combinations of a pure pine saw-timber stand with that of a portfolio of forest products. The risk associated with the production can be reduced by 20% when growing a portfolio of products rather than eucalypt pulpwood only.

Agricultural land use among mestizo colonist and indigenous populations: Contrasting patterns in the Amazon

This paper compares land use patterns of mestizo colonists and indigenous populations in the central Ecuadorian Amazon, based on data from a household survey covering mestizo colonist, Kichwa and Shuar households. As expected, colonists mostly engage in commercial agriculture and cattle ranching, but there are substantial differences in land use patterns between the Shuar and the Kichwa. The Shuar engage in cash cropping and cattle ranching, and on average, devote even more land to agricultural uses than mestizo colonists in this sample. In contrast, the Kichwa engage more in subsistence crop production and less in commercial agriculture. Such different patterns appear related to local conditions, earlier migratory and settlement patterns, and the level of exposure to markets. The implications of this for policy are explored in the conclusions.

Biosurveillance of forest insects: part I—integration and application of genomic tools to the surveillance of non-native forest insects

Invasive species pose significant threats to forest ecosystems. Early intervention strategies are the most cost-effective means to control biological invasions, but are reliant on robust biosurveillance. State-of-the-art genomic approaches can provide an unprecedented opportunity to access detailed information on the invasion process and adaptive potential of invasive insects that pose an immediate threat to forests environments. Genomics can improve diagnostics of the invader and identify its route of invasion by determining the source population(s), assess its probability of establishment and patterns of spread, as well as provide evidence of adaptation. Applied biosurveillance efforts by plant health regulatory agencies will benefit substantially from the detailed insights that genomic data bring to our understanding of biological invasions.