Vernon Ireland

SoS in disasters: Why following the manual can be a mistake

According to both the US Geological Survey and the World Bank,

Recognising further concepts from complex systems research in SoSE

280 billion dollars could have been saved if

Exploration of Complex System Types

40 billion dollars had been invested in disaster prevention. Natural and human-made disasters that have occurred over the last few years show that there is a gap in disaster prevention caused by the interconnected nature of risks, which cannot be foreseen with current risk management methods. In this paper we point out how disaster management could benefit from a SoS approach in emergency response and preparedness strategies. Using recent disasters as case studies, we identify some keys to success in managing a SoS in preparation, during and in the aftermath of a disaster. In particular, we discuss the idea of the interconnectedness of risks in independent and interdependent systems and the application of Boardman and Sausers concept of “creative disobedience”, which are fundamental for goal achievement of systems belonging to a SoS.

Addressing Wicked Problems in a Range of Project Types

System of systems (SoS) and System of Systems Engineering (SOSE) are made up of independent autonomous system. SoS has used a number of concepts from complexity theory, such as inclusion of autonomous and independent systems and emergence. However, there are a number of other concepts that have not been so readily used in SoSE which have been clearly enunciated in complex systems research papers. These include self organization, complexity leadership, stability levels and notions of being on the edge of chaos, phase history and initial conditions, co-evolution, hierarchy versus networked, and redundant resources. These concepts are examined and some implications for use in SoSE proposed. Although it is considered desirable to include these in SoSE architecture, it is concluded that SoSE architecture is not adequately developed so inclusion in processes to be used in SoSE architecture is the best approach.

Application of System Dynamics to Evaluate the Social and Economic Benefits of Infrastructure Projects

Abstract The objective of the paper is to explore a range of complex system types in order to identify lessons learned which may be able to be applied in other complex system types. The range of complex system types includes: traditional System of Systems (SoS) as used in defence, supply chains, world a federated government enterprise, the world financial system, an Australian charity building schools in Afghanistan, disaster management, and dispute resolution between warring neighbours. The analysis includes examination of a number of analysis categorisation systems including recognising the systems’ autonomous and independent behaviour, structural characteristics such as a central initiator of coordination, or a lack of one, Hitchens’ level, complexity, both operational and cultural, development of mental models, exploration through systems dynamics, identification of leverage points, and consideration of Checklands soft systems approach.

Research directions in SoSE

Abstract Wicked problems are recognised and need to be seen as a subset of complex systems or projects. Complex projects are identified within a hierarchy of simple, complicated, and complex and then complex projects are separated into three distinctive types. Wicked problems (type B) are focused on and solution methods addressed. Methodologies to identify stakeholders and project boundaries are identified and it has been found that the use of soft system methodology, especially to create meaning, is valuable. Multiple perspectives are identified through use of Dooyeweerds suite of aspects in which to frame the rich picture and consequently the root definition and solution.

Approaches in addressing system of systems

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is often employed to inform decision makers about the desirability of transport infrastructure investment options. One of the main limitations of traditional CBA approaches is that they do not provide a dynamic view that explicitly illustrates the cost and benefit relationships between component entities over time. This paper addresses this issue by describing a System Dynamics (SD) approach that can perform transport infrastructure CBA through the application of systems thinking to develop a causal-loop model that can subsequently be operationalised into an executable stock-and-flow model. Execution of this model readily enables sensitivity analysis of infrastructure investment options and visualisation of the cost-benefit behaviour of each variant over time. The utility of the approach is illustrated through a case study, the Co Chien Bridge project in Vietnam, using a model that incorporates conventional economic metrics and factors that measure indirect project benefits, such as impact on gross domestic product, unemployment rate, and total taxes gained from affected economic sectors.

A supply network governance framework: a case study of the South Australian mining industry

Research directions in system of systems are examined and areas which have been relatively neglected are identified. These include the definition of complexity, the application of power laws and Paretian statistics to most complex systems issues; the greatest innovation occurring at the edge of chaos; chaordic behavior, scale laws, fractals, self-organized criticality, tiny initiating events, adaptive cycles, systemic and cascading risk, attractor cages and fitness landscapes. The use of systems thinking methodology and its application to complex system problems is examined. Finally, the concept of system context is examined and the issue of whether soft system methodology can be applied to the examination of context is discussed. Appropriate economic models is also briefly discussed.

On the importance and value of case studies

The concept of waste through lack of coordination of independent organisations into a larger system is examined and an estimate of losses reported. An approach for single organisational structural analysis is extended to multi-organisational analysis to provide examples of benefits. However it is recognised that system of systems fall into two types: those which require only traditional integration tools and others which require systems thinking tools such as Checklands Soft System Methodology and SAST. Techniques to use SSM are explored.

Understanding the Dynamics of System-of-Systems in Complex Regional Conflicts

Purpose The competitiveness of mining regions largely depends on the performance of the regional supply chains that provide services to mining companies. These local supply chains are often highly intertwined and represent a regional supply network for the industry. Individual companies often use supply chain strategies that are sub-optimal to overall supply network performance. To effectively respond to an uncertain business environment, policy-makers and supply chain participants would benefit by a governance framework that would allow to incentivise the formation of supply networks structures enabling effective operations. The purpose of this paper is to offer an empirically grounded conceptual framework based on Complex Adaptive Systems (CASs) governance principles, which links network governance mechanisms with supply network structure and operational performance to incentivise the formation of adaptive and resilient supply networks in the mining industry. Design/methodology/approach A mixed method research design and a case study of the South Australian mining sector were used to collect empirical data. Qualitative interviews and network analysis of the SA mining industry regional supply network structure were conducted. The relationships between network parameters were interpreted using CAS theory. Findings An empirically grounded conceptual framework based on CAS governance principles is developed. The case study revealed that supply chain strategies and governance mechanisms in the SA mining industry have led to the formation of a hierarchical, scale-free structure with insufficient horizontal connectivity which limits the adaptability, responsiveness and resilience of the regional supply network. Research limitations/implications The findings are drawn from a single case study. This limits generalisability of the findings and the proposed framework. Practical implications The proposed framework draws the attention of the policy-makers and supply chain participants towards the need for utilising CAS governance principles to facilitate the formation of adaptive, responsive and resilient regional supply networks in the mining industry. Originality value The proposed conceptual framework is an attempt to parameterise the governance of the regional supply networks in the mining industry.