Vicente G. Cancho

The Poisson-exponential lifetime distribution

In this paper we proposed a new two-parameters lifetime distribution with increasing failure rate. The new distribution arises on a latent complementary risk problem base. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including a formal proof of its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulae for its reliability and failure rate functions, quantiles and moments, including the mean and variance. A simple EM-type algorithm for iteratively computing maximum likelihood estimates is presented. The Fisher information matrix is derived analytically in order to obtaining the asymptotic covariance matrix. The methodology is illustrated on a real data set.

The complementary exponential geometric distribution: Model, properties, and a comparison with its counterpart

In this paper, we proposed a new two-parameter lifetime distribution with increasing failure rate, the complementary exponential geometric distribution, which is complementary to the exponential geometric model proposed by Adamidis and Loukas (1998). The new distribution arises on a latent complementary risks scenario, in which the lifetime associated with a particular risk is not observable; rather, we observe only the maximum lifetime value among all risks. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including a formal proof of its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulas for its reliability and failure rate functions, moments, including the mean and variance, variation coefficient, and modal value. The parameter estimation is based on the usual maximum likelihood approach. We report the results of a misspecification simulation study performed in order to assess the extent of misspecification errors when testing the exponential geometric distribution against our complementary one in the presence of different sample size and censoring percentage. The methodology is illustrated on four real datasets; we also make a comparison between both modeling approaches.

Generalized log-gamma regression models with cure fraction

In this paper, the generalized log-gamma regression model is modified to allow the possibility that long-term survivors may be present in the data. This modification leads to a generalized log-gamma regression model with a cure rate, encompassing, as special cases, the log-exponential, log-Weibull and log-normal regression models with a cure rate typically used to model such data. The models attempt to simultaneously estimate the effects of explanatory variables on the timing acceleration/deceleration of a given event and the surviving fraction, that is, the proportion of the population for which the event never occurs. The normal curvatures of local influence are derived under some usual perturbation schemes and two martingale-type residuals are proposed to assess departures from the generalized log-gamma error assumption as well as to detect outlying observations. Finally, a data set from the medical area is analyzed.

Bayesian nonlinear regression models with scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions: Estimation and case influence diagnostics

The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian analysis for nonlinear regression models under scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions. This novel class of models provides a useful generalization of the symmetrical nonlinear regression models since the error distributions cover both skewness and heavy-tailed distributions such as the skew-t, skew-slash and the skew-contaminated normal distributions. The main advantage of these class of distributions is that they have a nice hierarchical representation that allows the implementation of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples from the joint posterior distribution. In order to examine the robust aspects of this flexible class, against outlying and influential observations, we present a Bayesian case deletion influence diagnostics based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Further, some discussions on the model selection criteria are given. The newly developed procedures are illustrated considering two simulations study, and a real data previously analyzed under normal and skew-normal nonlinear regression models.

Destructive weighted Poisson cure rate models.

In this paper, we develop a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest to follow a compound weighted Poisson distribution. This model is more flexible in terms of dispersion than the promotion time cure model. Moreover, it gives an interesting and realistic interpretation of the biological mechanism of the occurrence of event of interest as it includes a destructive process of the initial risk factors in a competitive scenario. In other words, what is recorded is only from the undamaged portion of the original number of risk factors.

The log-exponentiated Weibull regression model for interval-censored data

In interval-censored survival data, the event of interest is not observed exactly but is only known to occur within some time interval. Such data appear very frequently. In this paper, we are concerned only with parametric forms, and so a location-scale regression model based on the exponentiated Weibull distribution is proposed for modeling interval-censored data. We show that the proposed log-exponentiated Weibull regression model for interval-censored data represents a parametric family of models that include other regression models that are broadly used in lifetime data analysis. Assuming the use of interval-censored data, we employ a frequentist analysis, a jackknife estimator, a parametric bootstrap and a Bayesian analysis for the parameters of the proposed model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influences on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to assess global influences. Furthermore, for different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulations are performed; in addition, the empirical distribution of some modified residuals are displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended to a modified deviance residual in log-exponentiated Weibull regression models for interval-censored data.

The Log-exponentiated-Weibull Regression Models with Cure Rate: Local Influence and Residual Analysis

In this paper the log-exponentiated-Weibull regression model is modified to allow the possibility that long term survivors are present in the data. The modification leads to a log-exponentiated-Weibull regression model with cure rate, encompassing as special cases the log-exponencial regression and log-Weibull regression models with cure rate typically used to model such data. The models attempt to estimate simultaneously the effects of covariates on the acceleration/deceleration of the timing of a given event and the surviving fraction; that is, the proportion of the population for which the event never occurs. Assuming censored data, we consider a classic analysis and Bayesian analysis for the parameters of the proposed model. The normal curvatures of local influence are derived under various perturbation schemes and two deviance-type residuals are proposed to assess departures from the log-exponentiated-Weibull error assumption as well as to detect outlying observations. Finally, a data set from the medical area is analyzed.

A Bayesian Long-term Survival Model Parametrized in the Cured Fraction

The main goal of this paper is to investigate a cure rate model that comprehends some well-known proposals found in the literature. In our work the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution. The model is conveniently reparametrized through the cured fraction, which is then linked to covariates by means of the logistic link. We explore the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to develop a Bayesian analysis in the proposed model. The procedure is illustrated with a numerical example.

Modeling the presence of immunes by using the exponentiated-Weibull model

In this paper the exponentiated-Weibull model is modified to model the possibility that long-term survivors are present in the data. The modification leads to an exponentiated-Weibull mixture model which encompasses as special cases the exponential and Weibull mixture models typically used to model such data. Inference for the model parameters is considered via maximum likelihood and also via Bayesian inference by using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Model comparison is considered by using likelihood ratio statistics and also the pseudo Bayes factor, which can be computed by using the generated samples. An example of a data set is considered for which the exponentiated-Weibull mixture model presents a better fit than the Weibull mixture model. Results of simulation studies are also reported, which show that the likelihood ratio statistics seems to be somewhat deficient for small and moderate sample sizes.

The complementary exponential power series distribution

In this paper, we introduce the complementary exponential power series distributions, with failure rate either increasing, which is complementary to the exponential power series model proposed by Chahkandi & Ganjali (2009). The new class of distribution arises on a latent complementary risks scenarios, where the lifetime associated with a particular risk is not observable, rather we observe only the maximum lifetime value among all risks. This new class contains several distributions as particular case. The properties of the proposed distribution class are discussed such as quantiles, moments and order statistics. Estimation is carried out via maximum likelihood. Simulation results on maximum likelihood estimation are presented. An real application illustrate the usefulness of the new distribution class.