Vicente J. Monleon

Analysis and comparison of nonlinear tree height prediction strategies for Douglas-fir forests

Using an extensive Douglas-fir data set from southwest Oregon, we examined the (1) performance and suitabil- ity of selected prediction strategies, (2) contribution of relative position and stand-density measures in improving tree height (h) prediction values, and (3) effect of different subsampling designs to fill in missing h values in a new stand using a regional nonlinear model. Nonlinear mixed-effects models (NMEM) substantially improved the accuracy and precision of height prediction over the conventional nonlinear fixed-effects model (NFEM) that assumes the observations are inde- pendent, particularly when a few trees are subsampled for height. The predictive performance of a correction factor on a NFEM with relative position and stand-density measures was comparable to that of a NMEM when four or more trees were subsampled for height. When two or more heights were randomly subsampled, the NMEM efficiently explained the differences in the height-diameter relationship because of the variations in relative position of trees and stand density without having to incorporate them into the model. When only one height was subsampled, selecting the largest diameter tree in the stand would result in a lower predicted root mean square error (RMSE) than randomly selecting the height, re- gardless of the model form or fitting strategy used.

Long-term effects of prescribed underburning on litter decomposition and nutrient release in ponderosa pine stands in central Oregon

The effects of low-intensity prescribed underburning on the rates of litter decomposition and N and P release in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex. Laws) stands were studied by a litter-bag technique for 18 months in sites burned 0.3, 5, or 12 years earlier. Litter decomposition rates (k) were low, between 0.15 and 0.28 year−1, and were significantly (P < 0.1) reduced by prescribed fire on the sites burned 0.3 and 12 years earlier. However, the reduction in decomposition rates was small, from 0.22 to 0.19 year−1 on the sites burned 12 years earlier, and from 0.172 to 0.167 year−1 on the sites burned 0.3 year earlier. Nitrogen tended to be immobilized in the decomposing litter, while P was rapidly released, suggesting that these ecosystems are limited by N but not by P. Nitrogen showed a distinctive seasonal pattern of net immobilization during winter and a net release during summer. Prescribed burning significantly increased the release of N and P from the litter on the sites burned 5 years earlier, a pattern that may indicate changes in microbial activity in the forest floor. However, there were no significant differences in nutrient dynamics on the remaining sites.

Evidence of tree species' range shifts in a complex landscape.

Climate change is expected to change the distribution of species. For long-lived, sessile species such as trees, tracking the warming climate depends on seedling colonization of newly favorable areas. We compare the distribution of seedlings and mature trees for all but the rarest tree species in California, Oregon and Washington, United States of America, a large, environmentally diverse region. Across 46 species, the mean annual temperature of the range of seedlings was 0.120°C colder than that of the range of trees (95% confidence interval from 0.096 to 0.144°C). The extremes of the seedling distributions also shifted towards colder temperature than those of mature trees, but the change was less pronounced. Although the mean elevation and mean latitude of the range of seedlings was higher than and north of those of the range of mature trees, elevational and latitudinal shifts run in opposite directions for the majority of the species, reflecting the lack of a direct biological relationship between species’ distributions and those variables. The broad scale, environmental diversity and variety of disturbance regimes and land uses of the study area, the large number and exhaustive sampling of tree species, and the direct causal relationship between the temperature response and a warming climate, provide strong evidence to attribute the observed shifts to climate change.

A comparison of small-area estimation techniques to estimate selected stand attributes using LiDAR- derived auxiliary variables

One of the challenges often faced in forestry is the estimation of forest attributes for smaller areas of interest within a larger population. Small-area estimation (SAE) is a set of techniques well suited to estimation of forest attributes for small areas in which the existing sample size is small and auxiliary information is available. Selected SAE methods were compared for estimating a variety of forest attributes for small areas using ground data and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) derived auxiliary information. The small areas of interest consisted of delineated stands within a larger forested population. Four different estimation methods were compared for predicting forest density (number of trees/ha), quadratic mean diameter (cm), basal area (m2/ha), top height (m), and cubic stem volume (m3/ha). The precision and bias of the estimation methods (synthetic prediction (SP), multiple linear regression based composite prediction (CP), empirical best linear unbiased prediction (EBLUP) via Fay–Herrio...

Using an epiphytic moss to identify previously unknown sources of atmospheric cadmium pollution.

Urban networks of air-quality monitors are often too widely spaced to identify sources of air pollutants, especially if they do not disperse far from emission sources. The objectives of this study were to test the use of moss bio-indicators to develop a fine-scale map of atmospherically-derived cadmium and to identify the sources of cadmium in a complex urban setting. We collected 346 samples of the moss Orthotrichum lyellii from deciduous trees in December, 2013 using a modified randomized grid-based sampling strategy across Portland, Oregon. We estimated a spatial linear model of moss cadmium levels and predicted cadmium on a 50m grid across the city. Cadmium levels in moss were positively correlated with proximity to two stained-glass manufacturers, proximity to the Oregon-Washington border, and percent industrial land in a 500m buffer, and negatively correlated with percent residential land in a 500m buffer. The maps showed very high concentrations of cadmium around the two stained-glass manufacturers, neither of which were known to environmental regulators as cadmium emitters. In addition, in response to our findings, the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality placed an instrumental monitor 120m from the larger stained-glass manufacturer in October, 2015. The monthly average atmospheric cadmium concentration was 29.4ng/m(3), which is 49 times higher than Oregons benchmark of 0.6ng/m(3), and high enough to pose a health risk from even short-term exposure. Both stained-glass manufacturers voluntarily stopped using cadmium after the monitoring results were made public, and the monthly average cadmium levels precipitously dropped to 1.1ng/m(3) for stained-glass manufacturer #1 and 0.67ng/m(3) for stained-glass manufacturer #2.

Aridity Induces Nonlinear Effects of Human Disturbance on Precipitation-Use Efficiency of Iberian Woodlands

The effects of ecosystem degradation are pervasive worldwide and increasingly concerning under the present context of global changes in climate and land use. Theoretical studies and empirical evidence increasingly suggest that drylands are particularly prone to develop nonlinear functional changes in response to climate variations and human disturbance. Precipitation-use efficiency (PUE) represents the ratio of vegetation production to precipitation and provides a tool for evaluating human and climate impacts on landscape functionality. Holm oak (Quercus ilex) woodlands are one of the most conspicuous dry forest ecosystems in the western Mediterranean basin and present a variety of degraded states, due to their long history of human use. We studied the response of Iberian holm oak woodlands to human disturbance along an aridity gradient (that is, semi-arid, dry-transition and sub-humid conditions) using PUE estimations from enhanced vegetation index (EVI) observations of the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Our results indicated that PUE decreased linearly with disturbance intensity in sub-humid holm oak woodlands, but showed accelerated, nonlinear reductions with increased disturbance intensity in semi-arid and dry-transition holm oak sites. The impact of disturbance on PUE was larger for dry years than for wet years, and these differences increased with aridity from sub-humid to dry-transition and semi-arid holm oak woodlands. Therefore, aridity may also interact with ecosystem degradation in holm oak woodlands by reducing the landscape ability to buffer large changes in vegetation production caused by climate variability.

Analysis of area level and unit level models for small area estimation in forest inventories assisted with LiDAR auxiliary information

Forest inventories require estimates and measures of uncertainty for subpopulations such as management units. These units often times hold a small sample size, so they should be regarded as small areas. When auxiliary information is available, different small area estimation methods have been proposed to obtain reliable estimates for small areas. Unit level empirical best linear unbiased predictors (EBLUP) based on plot or grid unit level models have been studied more thoroughly than area level EBLUPs, where the modelling occurs at the management unit scale. Area level EBLUPs do not require a precise plot positioning and allow the use of variable radius plots, thus reducing fieldwork costs. However, their performance has not been examined thoroughly. We compared unit level and area level EBLUPs, using LiDAR auxiliary information collected for inventorying 98,104 ha coastal coniferous forest. Unit level models were consistently more accurate than area level EBLUPs, and area level EBLUPs were consistently more accurate than field estimates except for large management units that held a large sample. For stand density, volume, basal area, quadratic mean diameter, mean height and Lorey’s height, root mean squared errors (rmses) of estimates obtained using area level EBLUPs were, on average, 1.43, 2.83, 2.09, 1.40, 1.32 and 1.64 times larger than those based on unit level estimates, respectively. Similarly, direct field estimates had rmses that were, on average, 1.37, 1.45, 1.17, 1.17, 1.26, and 1.38 times larger than rmses of area level EBLUPs. Therefore, area level models can lead to substantial gains in accuracy compared to direct estimates, and unit level models lead to very important gains in accuracy compared to area level models, potentially justifying the additional costs of obtaining accurate field plot coordinates.

Multi-scale Relationships Between Coarse Woody Debris and Presence/Absence of Western Hemlock in the Oregon Coast Range

Western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) is a key structural component of old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest, typically providing a multi-layered canopy and contributing to the diversity of tree ages. Forest managers are looking for ways to promote the establishment of hemlock in the hope of accelerating the development of old growth characteristics. This study examines the relationship between the abundance of coarse woody debris (CWD) and the establishment of western hemlock at two different scales: microsite-level and stand-level within the Oregon Coast Range. We use hierarchical logistic regression models to explore this relationship at the microsite-level, and further, whether this relationship itself depends upon the overall amount of CWD available in the stand. We find a significant association between the amount of CWD and hemlock establishment at the microsite-level, but the association does not seem to depend on the total amount of CWD available in the stand. This suggests that hemlock is not able to use alternative substrates for recruitment when CWD is not available. In turn, these results suggest that CWD can be used to help predict the presence of hemlock saplings in a stand, and that management practices that increase the amount of CWD in forest stands should be considered as potentially beneficial to hemlock establishment.