Vicente Meneu

Temperature and seasonality influences on Spanish electricity load

Abstract Deregulation of the Spanish electricity market in 1998 and the possible listing of electricity or weather derivative contracts have encouraged the study of the relationship between electricity demand and weather in Spain. In this paper, a transfer function intervention model is developed for forecasting daily electricity load from cooling and heating degree–days. The influence of weather and seasonality is proved, and is significant even when the autoregressive effects and the dynamic specification of the temperature are taken into account. The estimated general model shows a high predictive power. The results and information presented in this paper could be of interest for current users and potential traders in the deregulated Spanish electricity market.

Daily Air Temperature and Electricity Load in Spain

Abstract Weather has a significant impact on different sectors of the economy. One of the most sensitive is the electricity market, because power demand is linked to several weather variables, mainly the air temperature. This work analyzes the relationship between electricity load and daily air temperature in Spain, using a population-weighted temperature index. The electricity demand shows a significant trend due to socioeconomic factors, in addition to daily and monthly seasonal effects that have been taken into account to isolate the weather influence on electricity load. The results indicate that the relationship is nonlinear, showing a “comfort interval” of ±3°C around 18°C and two saturation points beyond which the electricity load no longer increases. The analysis has also revealed that the sensitivity of electricity load to daily air temperature has increased along time, in a higher degree for summer than for winter, although the sensitivity in the cold season is always more significant than in th...

Single Factor Stochastic Models with Seasonality Applied to Underlying Weather Derivatives Variables

This invention relates to a cup-like device having drain openings therein which is made as a unitary structure by injection molding of a flexible elastic plastic such as low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), or the like. The cup may readily be secured to, or removed from, a golf club head without the use of tools and when so secured may be used to retrieve golf balls from relatively inaccessible locations or to pick up golf balls after a practice session. Attachment and removal of the cup from the golf club is accomplished by insertion or removal of the club shaft by deflecting a flexible portion of a clip member integral with the cup and then moving the clip and cup along the shaft into engagement with or detachment from the golf club head.

Information flows among the major stock market areas

The relationship between the index returns of the major stock markets has been analysed in many papers. These studies usually examine lead-lag relationships between markets, without distinguishing the influencing ability and the sensitivity of each of the markets. Additionally, these studies use indices that are not directly comparable - either because of the way the indices are calculated or because of the number of companies and sectors used to construct them. This paper addresses both points. Firstly, all the analyses have been made using homogeneous indices designed by Morgan Stanley Capital International. Secondly, the information flow has been studied by applying the model proposed by Peiro et al. (1998). This model allows us to study the effective influence of one market on another by separating the capability to influence of the first and the sensitivity of the second. The obtained results indicate that during the period 1988-1993, the linkage among the major stocks markets were determined by the sensitivity of the market receiving the information; while in the period 1993-1998, the linkages are determined by the influencing ability.