Vicki G. Morwitz

Do Intentions Really Predict Behavior? Self-Generated Validity Effects in Survey Research

Studies of the relationship between purchase intentions and purchase behavior have ignored the possibility that the very act of measurement may inflate the association between intentions and behavior, a phenomenon called “self-generated validity.” In this research, the authors develop a latent model of the reactive effects of measurement that is applicable to intentions, attitude, or satisfaction data, and they show that this model can be estimated with a two-stage procedure. In the first stage, the authors use data from surveyed consumers to predict the presurvey latent purchase intentions of both surveyed and nonsurveyed consumers. In the second stage, they compare the strength of the association between the presurvey latent intentions and the postsurvey behavior across both groups. The authors find large and reliable self-generated validity effects across three diverse large-scale field studies. On average, the correlation between latent intentions and purchase behavior is 58% greater among surveyed consumers than it is among similar nonsurveyed consumers. One study also shows that the reactive effect of the measurement of purchase intentions is entirely mediated by self-generated validity and not by social norms, intention modification, or other measurement effects that are independent of presurvey latent intentions.

Does Measuring Intent Change Behavior

Past research has established that, while self-reports of purchase intentions can predict behavior, various factors affect the strength of the intentions-behavior link. This article explores one such factor: the impact of merely measuring intent. Our specific question concerns the impact of measuring intent on subsequent purchase behavior. Prior research suggests a mere-measurement hypothesis: that merely measuring intent will increase subsequent purchase behavior. We also suggest a polarization hypothesis: that repeated intent questions will have a polarizing effect on behavior. The results reveal that the effect of merely asking intent to buy once is an increase in the subsequent purchase rate. The effect of repeatedly asking intent for those with low levels of intent is a decreased propensity to buy with repeated measurements. These two effects are reduced given prior experience with the product. The implications of these findings and opportunities for future research are discussed.

Using Segmentation to Improve Sales Forecasts Based on Purchase Intent: Which "Intenders" Actually Buy?

The authors investigate whether the use of segmentation can improve the accuracy of sales forecasts based on stated purchase intent. The common current practice is to prepare a sales forecast by us...

When Do Purchase Intentions Predict Sales

Marketing managers routinely use purchase intentions to predict sales. The purpose of this paper is to identify factors associated with an increased or decreased correlation between purchase intentions and actual purchasing. In two studies, we examine data collected from a wide range of different settings that reflect the real world diversity in how intentions studies are conducted. The results indicate that intentions are more correlated with purchase: 1) for existing products than for new ones, 2) for durable goods than for non-durable goods, 3) for short than for long time horizons, 4) when respondents are asked to provide intentions to purchase specific brands or models than when they are asked to provide intentions to buy at the product category level, 5) when purchase is measured in terms of trial rates than when it is measured in terms of total market sales, and 6) when purchase intentions are collected in a comparative mode than when they are collected monadically.

Penny Wise and Pound Foolish: The Left‐Digit Effect in Price Cognition

Through five experiments, we provide a cognitive account of when and why nine-ending prices are perceived to be smaller than a price one cent higher. First, this occurs only when the leftmost digits of the prices differ (e.g.,

The Scope and Persistence of Mere-Measurement Effects: Evidence from a Field Study of Customer Satisfaction Measurement

2.99 vs.

Sales forecasts for existing consumer products and services: Do purchase intentions contribute to accuracy?

3.00). Second, the left-digit effect also depends on the numerical and psychological distances between the target price and a competing products price. The closer the two prices being compared, the more likely is the left-digit effect. Third, the left-digit effect is not restricted to the domain of prices; it also manifests with other multidigit numbers. (c) 2005 by JOURNAL OF CONSUMER RESEARCH, Inc..

The question–behavior effect: What we know and where we go from here.

Self-generated validity research has demonstrated that responding to survey questions changes subsequently measured judgments and behavior. We examine the scope and persistence of the effect of measuring satisfaction on customer behavior over time. In a field experiment conducted in a financial services setting, we hypothesize and find that measuring satisfaction (a) changes one-time purchase behavior, (b) changes relational customer behaviors (likelihood of defection, aggregate product use, and profitability), and (c) results in effects that increase for months afterward and persist even a year later. These results raise questions concerning the design, interpretation, and ethics in the conduct of applied marketing research studies. Copyright 2002 by the University of Chicago.

The Short- and Long-Term Effects of Measuring Intent to Repurchase

Purchase intentions are routinely used to forecast sales of existing products and services. While past studies have shown that intentions are predictive of sales, they have only examined the absolute accuracy of intentions, not their accuracy relative to other forecasting methods. For example, no research has been able to demonstrate that intentions-based forecasts can improve upon a simple extrapolation of past sales trends. We examined the relative accuracy of four methods that forecast sales from intentions. We tested these methods using four data sets involving different products and time horizons; one of French automobile sales, two of U.S. automobile sales, and one of U.S. wireless services. For all four products and time horizons, each of the four intentions-based forecasting methods was more accurate than an extrapolation of past sales. Combinations of these forecasting methods using equal weights lead to even greater accuracy, with error rates about one-third lower than extrapolations of past sales. Thus, it appears that purchase intentions can provide better forecasts than a simple extrapolation of past sales trends. While the evidence from the current study contradicts the findings of an earlier study, the consistency of the results in our study suggest that intentions are a valuable input to sales forecasts.

Methods for Forecasting from Intentions Data

Researchers have consistently shown that questioning people about a future behavior influences the subsequent performance of that behavior. Since its first demonstration by Sherman (1980), two groups of researchers have built parallel streams of research investigating the self‐prophecy and mere‐measurement phenomenon. Both sets of scholars have clearly demonstrated the importance of questioning as a social influence technique and have shed light on at least two of the theoretical processes underlying observed effects. In the current paper, these researchers formally adopt a common label—the question–behavior effect—for these and similar effects. After providing a review of prior work in the area, the authors detail directions for future researchers interested in joining the investigation of this unique and persuasive form of social influence.