Victor Brajer

Valuing Air Pollution Mortality in China's Cities

Although China has made tremendous economic progress in recent years, air pollution continues to exact significant health and economic costs. Using pollution data from 38 Chinese cities and China-based epidemiological functions, this paper estimates some of the economic benefits of reducing urban air pollution. It calculates the averted mortality which would result from the clean-up of particulates, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide—a pollutant not included in most previous China studies. The paper expands on earlier studies by examining the impact of seasonal variations in pollution levels. Finally, the monetary valuation of pollution-related averted mortality is developed using a China-based valuation study and, for a number of cities, the valuation is compared with city-level GDP.

Protecting China's children: valuing the health impacts of reduced air pollution in Chinese cities

As China advances its overall program of economic development, many Chinese cities consistently suffer from unhealthy levels of air pollution. One of the groups most affected is children. This paper provides some quantification regarding the extent of various morbidity costs upon children in portions of urban China. Using China-based health-effects and valuation studies, the authors project, and value in dollar figures, the number of averted cases of childhood colds, bronchitis, asthma, and respiratory-related hospital visits resulting from a lowering of air pollution levels. The results indicate that these child morbidity benefits may be substantial, with a mid-range value of nearly

Blue skies in Beijing? Looking at the Olympic effect.

3.5 billion over the period 2002–2011.

Adjusting Chinese income inequality for environmental equity

As part of its preparations for the 2008 Summer Olympics, Beijing has undertaken significant environmental cleanup activities. These offer a potentially significant ancillary benefit—the improvements in health that result from a less polluted urban airshed. Using China-based health-effects studies, the authors project, and value in dollar figures, the number of averted deaths, hospital outpatient visits, and emergency room visits resulting from the lowered air pollution—what the authors call “the Olympic effect.” Unlike previous studies on the health effects of pollution in China, they use seasonal breakdowns to isolate the impact of seasonal variations in pollution levels and to more accurately separate out the health impacts of the different types of pollutants. Their results indicate that the Olympic effect is substantial, with a midrange value of health improvements exceeding

Environmental Cleanup and Health Gains from Beijing's Green Olympics

29 billion in 2000 dollars over the period 1999-2008.

Valuing the adult health effects of air pollution in Chinese cities.

Given the extensive discussion of Chinas air pollution and urban income inequality problems, relatively little attention has been paid to any relationship which may exist between the two. This paper seeks to do so, by exploring the existence of environmental equity in China. Specifically, we first calculate traditional measures of urban income inequality (the Gini coefficient and Theils T and L indices) for the years 1995 and 2004. Then, we estimate ‘pollution-adjusted’ incomes using China-based health functions and economic valuation studies, and recalculate the income (or now welfare) inequality measures. The results indicate that as pollution cleanup efforts gain traction over time, the regressive consequences of pollution may diminish. We thus conclude with an encouraging note for developing countries: improving welfare distribution can coexist with an improving environment.

Wonderlic, Race, and the NFL Draft

In announcing its bid for the 2008 Summer Olympics, Beijing chose a “Green Olympics” theme to indicate that hosting the Olympic Games would serve as a catalyst for environmental improvements and sustainable development. With the Olympics now just a short time away, it is appropriate to examine the citys cleanup progress to date. This article does so, and also quantifies some of the health benefits of these cleanup activities, placing an economic value on the gains. Results for air pollution cleanup indicate an economic gain of nearly 50 billion yuan over a ten-year period, with a potential annual gain of 3.5 billion yuan for reaching air quality standards. Water pollution results suggest a potential annual gain of another 2.6 billion yuan.

Ambient Ozone Concentrations and Cardiac Mortality in Southern California 1983–2000: Application of a New Marginal Structural Model Approach

Abstract:  Chinas ongoing economic growth is accompanied by a large amount of air pollution that exacts significant health and economic costs on its people. Following up on some earlier work focusing upon general mortality and child‐specific health effects, this article uses a larger data set, covering more than 90 Chinese cities, along with a set of China‐based epidemiological functions, to estimate some of the adult health benefits of reducing urban air pollution. Projecting future air pollution based upon current conditions, it calculates the averted mortality and morbidity effects that would result from the cleanup of particulates, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide. The inclusion of nitrogen dioxide in our analysis is particularly important because it is a growing problem and has not been included in most of the more widely known studies that examine Chinese air pollution. Finally, the economic valuation of these pollution‐related health effects is developed, using a number of recent, China‐based valuation studies.

Rise of the Automobiles: the costs of increased NO2 pollution in China's changing urban environment

Extending the work of Berri and Simmons on the National Football League (NFL) player draft and the Scouting Combine, the authors use the Wonderlic cognitive ability test to test one implication of a simple Phelps model of statistical discrimination in the NFL draft. The authors treat Wonderlic scores as a noisy signal of a player’s adaptability to the NFL game that may be more informative for White players than it is for Black players. The authors find that Wonderlic scores are important in explaining relative draft position for quarterbacks, offensive linemen, and tight ends. At the same time, the authors find limited evidence to support statistical discrimination based on Wonderlic scores.

Empirical inflation models in developing countries: Sensitivity to the definition of inflation

The authors evaluated the association between ambient ozone levels and cardiac mortality in Californias South Coast Air Basin during the period 1983-2000 and compared inferences from several types of marginal structural model (MSM) estimators. The authors undertook an ecologic study during the high-ozone seasons among persons over age 55 years. In contrast to conditional regression analysis and MSMs based on G-computation and simple inverse probability-of-treatment weighting (IPTW), an MSM that protected against violation of the experimental treatment assignment (ETA) assumption and considered only those areas that could have experienced both high and low ozone concentrations during 1983-2000 found no consistent evidence that reductions in quarterly 1-hour maximum ozone concentrations from levels above any of the regulatory standards to levels below those standards led to decreases in cardiac mortality; however, it did find evidence of decreases related to a decrease in 8-hour maximum concentrations. The G-computation estimator and simple IPTW estimators were biased because of serious violation of the ETA assumption. These analyses highlight the importance of nonviolation of the ETA assumption for valid inference and the failure of conditional regression to provide marginal estimates in the presence of interactions. Noncausal models also consistently inferred larger associations, which may have been due to bias violation of the ETA assumption on which these models rely.