Victor H. Lachos

Skew-normal Linear Mixed Models

Normality (symmetric) of the random effects and the within-subject errors is a routine assumptions for the linear mixed model, but it may be unrealistic, obscuring important features of among- and within-subjects variation. We relax this assumption by considering that the random effects and model errors follow a skew-normal distributions, which includes normality as a special case and provides flexibility in capturing a broad range of non-normal behavior. The marginal distribution for the observed quantity is derived which is expressed in closed form, so inference may be carried out using existing statistical software and standard optimization techniques. We also implement an EM type algorithm which seem to provide some advantages over a direct maximization of the likelihood. Results of simulation studies and applications to real data sets are reported.

Bayesian Inference for Skew-normal Linear Mixed Models

Linear mixed models (LMM) are frequently used to analyze repeated measures data, because they are more flexible to modelling the correlation within-subject, often present in this type of data. The most popular LMM for continuous responses assumes that both the random effects and the within-subjects errors are normally distributed, which can be an unrealistic assumption, obscuring important features of the variations present within and among the units (or groups). This work presents skew-normal liner mixed models (SNLMM) that relax the normality assumption by using a multivariate skew-normal distribution, which includes the normal ones as a special case and provides robust estimation in mixed models. The MCMC scheme is derived and the results of a simulation study are provided demonstrating that standard information criteria may be used to detect departures from normality. The procedures are illustrated using a real data set from a cholesterol study.

Multivariate mixture modeling using skew-normal independent distributions

In this paper we consider a flexible class of models, with elements that are finite mixtures of multivariate skew-normal independent distributions. A general EM-type algorithm is employed for iteratively computing parameter estimates and this is discussed with emphasis on finite mixtures of skew-normal, skew-t, skew-slash and skew-contaminated normal distributions. Further, a general information-based method for approximating the asymptotic covariance matrix of the estimates is also presented. The accuracy of the associated estimates and the efficiency of some information criteria are evaluated via simulation studies. Results obtained from the analysis of artificial and real data sets are reported illustrating the usefulness of the proposed methodology. The proposed EM-type algorithm and methods are implemented in the R package mixsmsn.

Robust mixture modeling based on scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions

A flexible class of probability distributions, convenient for modeling data with skewness behavior, discrepant observations and population heterogeneity is presented. The elements of this family are convex linear combinations of densities that are scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions. An EM-type algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation is developed and the observed information matrix is obtained. These procedures are discussed with emphasis on finite mixtures of skew-normal, skew-t, skew-slash and skew contaminated normal distributions. In order to examine the performance of the proposed methods, some simulation studies are presented to show the advantage of this flexible class in clustering heterogeneous data and that the maximum likelihood estimates based on the EM-type algorithm do provide good asymptotic properties. A real data set is analyzed, illustrating the usefulness of the proposed methodology.

Robust Bayesian analysis of heavy-tailed stochastic volatility models using scale mixtures of normal distributions

A Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility (SV) models using the class of symmetric scale mixtures of normal (SMN) distributions is considered. In the face of non-normality, this provides an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of the normal distribution. Specific distributions examined include the normal, student-t, slash and the variance gamma distributions. Using a Bayesian paradigm, an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is introduced for parameter estimation. Moreover, the mixing parameters obtained as a by-product of the scale mixture representation can be used to identify outliers. The methods developed are applied to analyze daily stock returns data on S&P500 index. Bayesian model selection criteria as well as out-of- sample forecasting results reveal that the SV models based on heavy-tailed SMN distributions provide significant improvement in model fit as well as prediction to the S&P500 index data over the usual normal model.

Linear and nonlinear mixed-effects models for censored HIV viral loads using normal/independent distributions.

HIV RNA viral load measures are often subjected to some upper and lower detection limits depending on the quantification assays. Hence, the responses are either left or right censored. Linear (and nonlinear) mixed-effects models (with modifications to accommodate censoring) are routinely used to analyze this type of data and are based on normality assumptions for the random terms. However, those analyses might not provide robust inference when the normality assumptions are questionable. In this article, we develop a Bayesian framework for censored linear (and nonlinear) models replacing the Gaussian assumptions for the random terms with normal/independent (NI) distributions. The NI is an attractive class of symmetric heavy-tailed densities that includes the normal, Students-t, slash, and the contaminated normal distributions as special cases. The marginal likelihood is tractable (using approximations for nonlinear models) and can be used to develop Bayesian case-deletion influence diagnostics based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence. The newly developed procedures are illustrated with two HIV AIDS studies on viral loads that were initially analyzed using normal (censored) mixed-effects models, as well as simulations.

On estimation and influence diagnostics for zero-inflated negative binomial regression models

The zero-inflated negative binomial model is used to account for overdispersion detected in data that are initially analyzed under the zero-inflated Poisson model. A frequentist analysis, a jackknife estimator and a non-parametric bootstrap for parameter estimation of zero-inflated negative binomial regression models are considered. In addition, an EM-type algorithm is developed for performing maximum likelihood estimation. Then, the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and some ways to perform global influence analysis are derived. In order to study departures from the error assumption as well as the presence of outliers, residual analysis based on the standardized Pearson residuals is discussed. The relevance of the approach is illustrated with a real data set, where it is shown that zero-inflated negative binomial regression models seems to fit the data better than the Poisson counterpart.

Bayesian nonlinear regression models with scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions: Estimation and case influence diagnostics

The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian analysis for nonlinear regression models under scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions. This novel class of models provides a useful generalization of the symmetrical nonlinear regression models since the error distributions cover both skewness and heavy-tailed distributions such as the skew-t, skew-slash and the skew-contaminated normal distributions. The main advantage of these class of distributions is that they have a nice hierarchical representation that allows the implementation of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples from the joint posterior distribution. In order to examine the robust aspects of this flexible class, against outlying and influential observations, we present a Bayesian case deletion influence diagnostics based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Further, some discussions on the model selection criteria are given. The newly developed procedures are illustrated considering two simulations study, and a real data previously analyzed under normal and skew-normal nonlinear regression models.

Likelihood-Based Inference for Multivariate Skew-Normal Regression Models

In this article, we present EM algorithms for performing maximum likelihood estimation for three multivariate skew-normal regression models of considerable practical interest. We also consider the restricted estimation of the parameters of certain important special cases of two models. The methodology developed is applied in the analysis of longitudinal data on dental plaque and cholesterol levels.

Skew‐normal/independent linear mixed models for censored responses with applications to HIV viral loads

Often in biomedical studies, the routine use of linear mixed-effects models (based on Gaussian assumptions) can be questionable when the longitudinal responses are skewed in nature. Skew-normal/elliptical models are widely used in those situations. Often, those skewed responses might also be subjected to some upper and lower quantification limits (QLs; viz., longitudinal viral-load measures in HIV studies), beyond which they are not measurable. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian analysis of censored linear mixed models replacing the Gaussian assumptions with skew-normal/independent (SNI) distributions. The SNI is an attractive class of asymmetric heavy-tailed distributions that includes the skew-normal, skew-t, skew-slash, and skew-contaminated normal distributions as special cases. The proposed model provides flexibility in capturing the effects of skewness and heavy tail for responses that are either left- or right-censored. For our analysis, we adopt a Bayesian framework and develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to carry out the posterior analyses. The marginal likelihood is tractable, and utilized to compute not only some Bayesian model selection measures but also case-deletion influence diagnostics based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence. The newly developed procedures are illustrated with a simulation study as well as an HIV case study involving analysis of longitudinal viral loads.