Victor Pontines

IDENTIFYING AND DATING THE EPISODES OF SPECULATIVE PRESSURES AGAINST THE SINGAPORE DOLLAR

The key objective of this study is to bring into light several shortcomings of early literatures in identifying episodes of currency crises. A careful examination of the basic statistical distribution of exchange market pressure index, based on a weighting scheme proposed by Eichengreen–Rose–Wyplosz (1995, 1996), reveals that the conventional method of defining currency crisis is statistically flawed. This study applies an alternative statistical method known as Extreme Value Analysis (EVA), originally developed by Hill (1975), and, more recently, extended by Huisman et al. (2001) to the case of Singapore from 1985 to 2003.

Financial Stability And Financial Inclusion: The Case Of Sme Lending

Developing economies are seeking to promote financial inclusion, i.e., greater access to financial services for low-income households and firms. This raises the question of whether greater financial inclusion tends to increase or decrease financial stability. A number of studies have suggested both positive and negative impacts on financial stability, but very few empirical studies have been made. This study focuses on the implications of greater financial inclusion for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) for financial stability. It estimates the effects of measures of the share of bank lending to SMEs on two measures of financial stability — bank nonperforming loans and bank Z scores. We find some evidence that an increased share of lending to SMEs aids financial stability by reducing non-performing loans (NPLs) and the probability of default by financial institutions.

Non-core liabilities and monetary policy transmission in Indonesia during the post-2007 global financial crisis

The policy importance of non-core liabilities has risen to prominence in recent years with the studies of Shin and Shin (2010), Hahm, et al., (2010) and Hahm, et al., (2013) highlighting it as a useful indicator of financial procyclicality and vulnerability. In this paper, we look at non-core liabilities in relation to its role in the transmission of monetary policy, particularly by examining how the interest rate channel of monetary policy is affected by non-deposit liabilities. We analyse this issue in the context of an emerging economy experience of Indonesia, which in recent years, has seen an increased reliance of its banking sector on non-core funding. Our investigation employs available bank-level data on non-core liabilities and lending rates in Indonesia over the period October 2011 to July 2016. We find that including non-core liabilities in the estimation has an effect, relative to the baseline, of stronger overall and immediate pass-through, albeit with a more sluggish adjustment towards correction of disequilibrium in the next period. The overall effect is that non-core liabilities make the duration lengthier for the monetary policy rate to transmit to bank lending rates in Indonesia.