Victoria Coupland

Hospital volume, proportion resected and mortality from oesophageal and gastric cancer: a population-based study in England, 2004–2008

Objective This study assessed the associations between hospital volume, resection rate and survival of oesophageal and gastric cancer patients in England. Design 62 811 patients diagnosed with oesophageal or gastric cancer between 2004 and 2008 were identified from a national population-based cancer registration and Hospital Episode Statistics-linked dataset. Cox regression analyses were used to assess all-cause mortality according to hospital volume and resection rate, adjusting for case-mix variables (sex, age, socioeconomic deprivation, comorbidity and type of cancer). HRs and 95% CIs, according to hospital volume, were evaluated for three predefined periods following surgery: <30, 30–365, and >365 days. Analysis of mortality in relation to resection rate was performed among all patients and among the 13 189 (21%) resected patients. Results Increasing hospital volume was associated with lower mortality (ptrend=0.0001; HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.95 for hospitals resecting 80+ and compared with <20 patients a year). In relative terms, the association between increasing hospital volume and lower mortality was particularly strong in the first 30 days following surgery (ptrend<0.0001; HR 0.52, (0.39 to 0.70)), but a clinically relevant association remained beyond 1 year (ptrend=0.0011; HR 0.82, (0.72 to 0.95)). Increasing resection rates were associated with lower mortality among all patients (ptrend<0.0001; HR 0.86, (0.84 to 0.89) for the highest, compared with the lowest resection quintile). Conclusions With evidence of lower short-term and longer-term mortality for patients resected in high-volume hospitals, this study supports further centralisation of oesophageal and gastric cancer surgical services in England.

High Procedure Volume Is Strongly Associated With Improved Survival After Lung Cancer Surgery

PURPOSE Studies have reported an association between hospital volume and survival for non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We explored this association in England, accounting for case mix and propensity to resect. METHODS We analyzed data on 134,293 patients with NSCLC diagnosed in England between 2004 and 2008, of whom 12,862 (9.6%) underwent surgical resection. Hospital volume was defined according to number of patients with resected lung cancer in each hospital in each year of diagnosis. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for death in three predefined periods according to hospital volume, sex, age, socioeconomic deprivation, comorbidity, and propensity to resect. RESULTS There was increased survival in hospitals performing > 150 surgical resections compared with those carrying out < 70 (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.90; Ptrend < .01). The association between hospital volume and survival was present in all three periods of follow-up, but the magnitude of association was greatest in the early postoperative period. CONCLUSION High-volume hospitals have higher resection rates and perform surgery among patients who are older, have lower socioeconomic status, and have more comorbidities; despite this, they achieve better survival, most notably in the early postoperative period.

Differences in outcomes of oesophageal and gastric cancer surgery across Europe

In several European countries, centralization of oesophagogastric cancer surgery has been realized and clinical audits initiated. The present study was designed to evaluate differences in resection rates, outcomes and annual hospital volumes between these countries, and to analyse the relationship between hospital volume and outcomes.

The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020

We estimated the future cancer incidence rates and the future numbers of cancer cases in England up to 2020 using cancer registration data for 1974–2003, and the official population projections from ONS up to 2023. Data were analysed using an age-period-cohort model as developed for the Nordic countries. We predict that for all cancers combined there will be relatively little change in age-standardised incidence rates in 2020. The number of new cancer cases per year in England is, however, predicted to increase by 33%, from 224 000 in 2001 to 299 000 cases in 2020. This increase is mainly due to the anticipated effects of population growth and ageing; cancer patients in 2020 will be older than todays cancer population.

An analysis of temporal and generational trends in the incidence of anal and other HPV-related cancers in Southeast England.

Patients diagnosed in 1960–2004 with cancer of the cervix, anus, vulva, vagina or penis were identified from the Thames Cancer Registry database, and age-standardised period (temporal) incidence rates calculated by direct standardisation. Age-cohort modelling techniques were used to estimate age-specific incidence rates in the earlier and later cohorts, enabling the calculation of age-standardised cohort (generational) rates. Incidence of anal cancer increased for both men and women over the period studied, mainly in those born from 1940 onwards. Similar generational patterns were seen for cancers of the vulva and vagina, but those for penile cancer were different. For cervix cancer, the steep downward trend in cohort rates due to screening levelled off in women born from 1940 onwards. Our findings are compatible with the hypothesis that changes in sexual practices were a major contributor to the increases of these cancers. Programmes of vaccination against HPV, aimed at reducing the burden of cervical cancer, may also help to reduce the incidence of cancer at other anogenital sites.

Hospital volume and survival in oesophagectomy and gastrectomy for cancer.

BACKGROUND High volume upper gastrointestinal cancer hospitals demonstrate improved postoperative mortality rates, but the impact on survival is unclear. This population-based cohort study explores the effect of hospital volume on survival following upper gastrointestinal cancer surgery. PATIENTS AND METHODS This study used a population-based cohort of 3866 patients who underwent surgery for oesophageal or gastric cancer between 1998 and 2008 with follow-up until December 2008. RESULTS Hospital volume ranged from 1 to 68 cases/year. Overall, 5-year survival was 27%. Increasing age and advanced stage of disease were independently correlated with shorter survival. High hospital volume was significantly and independently correlated with improved 30-day mortality postoperatively (P<0.001), but not with survival beyond 30 days. CONCLUSION The correlation between hospital volume and improved 30-day mortality following oesophageal and gastric cancer surgery supports the centralisation of upper gastrointestinal cancer surgery services. The low survival in both high and low volume hospitals beyond 30 days highlights the need for increasing earlier diagnosis and optimising approaches to radical treatment.

Variation in surgical resection for lung cancer in relation to survival: population-based study in England 2004-2006.

BACKGROUND Compared with some European countries, England has low lung cancer survival and low use of surgical resection for lung cancer. The use of surgical resection varies within England. We assessed the relationship between surgical resection rate and the survival of lung cancer patients in England. METHODS We extracted data on 77,349 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2006 from the English National Cancer Repository Dataset. We calculated the frequency of surgical resection by age, socio-economic deprivation and geographical area. We used Cox regression to compute mortality hazard ratios according to quintiles of frequency of surgical resection amongst all 77,349 lung cancer patients, and separately for the 6900 patients who underwent surgical resection. RESULTS We found large geographical variation in the surgical resection rate for NSCLC in PCT areas (3-18%). A high frequency of resection was strongly inversely associated with overall mortality (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.86-0.91 for the highest compared to the lowest resection quintile) and only moderately associated with mortality amongst the resected patients (HR 1.15, 95% CI 0.98-1.36). Compared to the highest resection quintile, 5420 deaths could be delayed in the overall NSCLC group, whereas about 146 more deaths could be expected amongst the resected patients. CONCLUSION The differences in the magnitudes of both the hazard ratios and the absolute excess deaths within resected patients and all NSCLC patients suggests that lung cancer survival in England could plausibly increase if a larger proportion of patients underwent surgical resection. Carefully designed research into the possible benefit of increasing resection rates is indicated.

Incidence and survival of oesophageal and gastric cancer in England between 1998 and 2007, a population-based study

BackgroundMajor changes in the incidence of oesophageal and gastric cancers have been reported internationally. This study describes recent trends in incidence and survival of subgroups of oesophageal and gastric cancer in England between 1998 and 2007 and considers the implications for cancer services and policy.MethodsData on 133,804 English patients diagnosed with oesophageal and gastric cancer between 1998 and 2007 were extracted from the National Cancer Data Repository. Using information on anatomical site and tumour morphology, data were divided into six groups; upper and middle oesophagus, lower oesophagus, oesophagus with an unspecified anatomical site, cardia, non-cardia stomach, and stomach with an unspecified anatomical site. Age-standardised incidence rates (per 100,000 European standard population) were calculated for each group by year of diagnosis and by socioeconomic deprivation. Survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method.ResultsThe majority of oesophageal cancers were in the lower third of the oesophagus (58%). Stomach with an unspecified anatomical site was the largest gastric cancer group (53%). The incidence of lower oesophageal cancer increased between 1998 and 2002 and remained stable thereafter. The incidence of cancer of the cardia, non-cardia stomach, and stomach with an unspecified anatomical site declined over the 10 year period. Both lower oesophageal and cardia cancers had a much higher incidence in males compared with females (M:F 4:1). The incidence was also higher in the most deprived quintiles for all six cancer groups. Survival was poor in all sub-groups with 1 year survival ranging from 14.8-40.8% and 5 year survival ranging from 3.7-15.6%.ConclusionsAn increased focus on prevention and early diagnosis, especially in deprived areas and in males, is required to improve outcomes for these cancers. Improved recording of tumour site, stage and morphology and the evaluation of focused early diagnosis programmes are also needed. The poor long-term survival reinforces the need for early detection and multidisciplinary care.

Incidence and survival for hepatic, pancreatic and biliary cancers in England between 1998 and 2007.

INTRODUCTION Hepatic, pancreatic and biliary (HPB) cancers are a group of diverse malignancies managed ideally in specialist centres. This study describes recent patterns in the incidence and survival of HPB cancers in England over a ten year period (1998-2007). METHODS Data on 99,379 English patients (50,656 males; 48,723 females) diagnosed with HPB cancers between 1998 and 2007 were extracted from the National Cancer Data Repository. Data were divided into six site-specific cancer groups; pancreas, ampulla of Vater, biliary tract, primary liver, gallbladder and duodenum. Age-standardised incidence rates (per 100,000 European standard population, (ASR(E))) were calculated for each of the six groups by year of diagnosis and by socioeconomic deprivation. Survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS The largest group was pancreatic cancers (63%), followed by primary liver (14%) and biliary cancers (13%). ASR(E) were highest for pancreatic and primary liver cancers whereas cancers of the gallbladder, duodenum and ampulla of Vater had a very low incidence. Over time the incidence of all six groups remained relatively stable, although primary liver cancer increased slightly in males. Incidence rates were higher in males than in females in all groups except gallbladder cancer, and all six groups had a higher incidence in the more deprived quintiles. Overall survival was poor in each of the HPB cancer groups. CONCLUSIONS HPB tumours are uncommon and are associated with poor long term survival reflecting the late stage at presentation. Incidence patterns suggest variable rates linked to socioeconomic deprivation and highlight a male predominance in all sites except the gallbladder. Identification of high risk populations should be emphasised in initiatives to raise awareness and facilitate earlier diagnosis.

Predictive value of dysplasia grading and DNA ploidy in malignant transformation of oral potentially malignant disorders.

Dysplasia grading is widely used to assess risk of transformation in oral potentially malignant disorders despite limited data on predictive value. DNA ploidy analysis has been proposed as an alternative. This study examines the prognostic value for both tests used in a routine diagnostic setting to inform clinical management. A retrospective study of conventional dysplasia grading was conducted on 1,401 patients. DNA ploidy analysis was conducted on a subset of 273 patients and results correlated with clinical information, pathologic diagnosis, and outcome over 5 to 15 years. Malignant transformation occurred in 32 of 273 patients (12%) and, of these, 20 (63%) of preexisting index lesions were aneuploid. Of 241 patients not developing carcinoma, only 39 (16%) of index lesions were aneuploid. Epithelial dysplasia correlated with DNA ploidy status (P < 0.001). The overall positive predictive value for malignant transformation by DNA aneuploidy was 38.5% (sensitivity 65.2% and specificity 75%) and by severe dysplasia grade 39.5% (sensitivity 30% and specificity 98%). DNA diploid and tetraploid status had negative predictive value of 90% to 96%. Combining DNA ploidy analysis with dysplasia grading gives a higher predictive value than either technique alone. Each of three traditional dysplasia grades predicts a significantly different risk of carcinoma development and time to transformation. DNA ploidy analysis had equivalent predictive value and also detected additional risk lesions in the absence of dysplasia. Cancer Prev Res; 6(8); 822–31. ©2013 AACR.