Victoria Morckel

Empty Neighborhoods: Using Constructs to Predict the Probability of Housing Abandonment

Housing abandonment contributes to neighborhood decline. It is a significant problem, especially in places facing population loss. One approach for dealing with abandonment is to prevent it from occurring in the first place. However, before we can implement successful prevention efforts, it is necessary to better understand what abandonment is and what factors predict it. Therefore, to assist planners and policymakers in allocating scarce resources, this study has three objectives. The first is to determine whether there are constructs that underlie abandonment. The second is to see whether those constructs predict abandonment. The third is to examine whether the effects of the constructs on the probability of abandonment are the same for two cities. The study finds that abandonment consists of four constructs: market conditions, gentrification, physical neglect, and socioeconomic conditions. The first three of these significantly predict the probability of a house being abandoned. The study also finds that the effects are similar for the two cities of interest.

Predicting abandoned housing: does the operational definition of abandonment matter?

“Abandonment” is a term that has no agreed-upon definition in the housing literature. As a result, different measures of housing abandonment have been used by researchers and practitioners. However, it is not clear whether the various measures capture the same construct. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to test whether three operational definitions of housing abandonment (tax delinquency as a proxy for abandonment, abandonment as identified by foot survey, and abandonment defined as “other vacant” by the census bureau) produce different results when used in prediction models. The study finds that the statistically significant predictors vary substantially from model to model. This finding is important to researchers and policy-makers since it indicates that proxies of housing abandonment are likely not equivalent, and that it may be necessary to conduct foot surveys in order to capture the intended construct.

Walk or Bike to a Healthier Life: Commuting Behavior and Recreational Physical Activity

This study surveyed faculty and staff at universities in three cities: Youngstown (Ohio), Columbus (Ohio), and Washington, D.C.A total of 111 participants (50% women, 45% men, 5% no answer) completed an online survey, which asked about their habits concerning their work commute, physical activity related to their commute, and physical activity engaged in for recreation. The study revealed that a significant relationship exists between the mode(s) of transit used in commuting for work and the amount of time participants reported engaging in recreational physical activity outside of the commute. Commuters who had some physical activity in their commute spent more time engaging in additional physical activity for recreation and exercise and participated in a greater number of physical activities. The study findings suggested that some groups, such as health researchers, governmental entities, planners, and transportation analysts, might benefit from further studying this connection.

A call for stakeholder participation in evaluating the implementation of plans

While planners and planning theorists have intensely debated numerous aspects of the early stages of the planning process that result in the creation of plans, few have focused on the latter stages of the processöthe stages that involve evaluating the implementation of plans. Few in the field have directly posed the question of who should be evaluating the degree to which plans have been implemented and why. In this commentary I attempt to bridge this gap by arguing for substantial public participation in evaluating the implementation of plans, primarily using a communicative action framework. In recognizing that such a framework is not a foolproof answer to the challenges of implementation, I would like to note that this piece is intended to generate further discussion on (rather than be an answer to) the following inquiries: (1) Who should be evaluating the implementation of plans? We currently take for granted that planning departments are the proper entity for doing so. (2) How can planning departments more comprehensively include public participation throughout the entire planning process, without being bogged down by an abundance of additional responsibilities? (3) Why are we not systematically applying planning theories to the latter stages of the planning process? This commentary should be useful in sparking further thought on these topics and related issues in plan implementation and evaluation.

Patronage and access to a legacy city farmers’ market: a case study of the relocation of the Flint, Michigan, market

ABSTRACT This study examines the effects of relocating the Flint Farmers’ Market, a large and successful market in the medium-sized legacy city of Flint, Michigan. Over the course of a year, market patrons and vendors were surveyed to explore questions about the scale of the market, patron demographics, reasons for visiting the market, seasonal variations in outcomes, and healthy food access. The results indicate that the relocated, downtown market is successful in large part because it satisfies multiple needs – it provides access to fresh, local produce; it provides lunch options for downtown workers and students; and it serves as a community gathering space. The study further demonstrates that farmers’ markets in legacy cities can serve a large region, attract diverse customers, and remain sustainable year-round, even in northern climates. These findings should be of interest to planners, policy-makers, and market managers who are considering opening or relocating a farmers’ market as a means of supporting community health, well-being, and economic development.

Improving downtown in a mid-sized legacy city: examining responses to potential downtown improvements in Flint, Michigan

While many researchers have examined strategies for revitalizing downtowns, few have done so in small or mid-sized legacy cities. This article adds to the literature by examining 1263 survey responses to statements about potential improvements to the downtown area of Flint, Michigan (USA). Descriptive statistics were used to identify perceptions of the most promising strategies for improvement. Those strategies were further analyzed using regression methods, to determine which characteristics of participants influenced responses. We found that while there are many improvements that might encourage people to come downtown – such as reducing crime, having more to do, making parking easier, and having suitable housing – some traditional improvements advocated by planners (involving proximity, walkability, and bikeability) were not desired. Additionally, we found that responses appeared to be influenced by age, residency status, and perception of downtown, but not by education level, frequency of visiting, or whether or not one currently works downtown.

The direct economic impact of the Flint, Michigan, farmers’ market relocation

Abstract This study considers the effects of location on farmers’ market success using the relocation of the farmers’ market in Flint, Michigan, as a case study. It examines whether relocating the market benefitted vendors; whether the direct economic impact (DEI) of the market increased post-relocation; whether spending patterns vary by day of the week and season; and whether different estimates of DEI are obtained when accounting for seasonal variations in spending rates. The results indicate that the relocation increased vendors’ profits and satisfaction, the DEI of the new market was much higher than the old, there are daily and seasonal differences in spending rates, and accounting for season resulted in an estimated DEI that was higher than would have been obtained otherwise. Overall, the study demonstrates that location matters – the market’s economic outcomes greatly improved by moving from an isolated location on the outskirts of downtown to the city’s core.

The effects of the water crisis on population dynamics in the City of Flint, Michigan

ABSTRACT Since 2014, residents of Flint, Michigan have dealt with the effects of lead in their municipal system in a series of events known as the Flint water crisis. While several studies have examined the health effects of the crisis and changes in water lead levels over time, no study has considered whether the crisis has resulted or could result in residents leaving the city. To explore this question, we surveyed 405 Flint residents and used quantitative and qualitative methods, as well as exploratory spatial data analysis, to test five hypotheses about the water crisis and population dynamics. We found that population loss has not yet accelerated, but nearly half of residents are considering leaving. This consideration was true regardless of residents’ demographics or where they lived in the city. We also discovered that perceptions of the water’s safety and its health effects, more than actual water lead levels, predicted whether one is considering leaving. Overall, our results suggest that as water infrastructure quality deteriorates, population loss could accelerate, resulting in a recursive relationship whereby the city’s population and its infrastructure continue to decline.

Using suitability analysis to prioritize demolitions in a legacy city

ABSTRACT Abandoned properties are a significant problem facing legacy cities. Given historic and ongoing population losses, many legacy cities turn to demolitions as one solution to their surplus property problems. Unfortunately, cities lack the resources needed to demolish all of the buildings that should arguably come down. Determining which properties should receive highest priority is a difficult task. Therefore, this paper presents an empirical method, based on basic suitability analysis, for prioritizing demolitions city-wide. Using Youngstown, Ohio as an example, every vacant property in the city was assigned a demolition score based on four factors: property characteristics, vacancy, neighborhood potential, and crime. Properties with higher scores were deemed stronger candidates for timely demolition. In addition to prioritizing demolitions, the proposed method can facilitate the creation of hotspot maps of proposed demolitions, and a per se strategic demolition plan.

SimCity in the Community Planning Classroom Effects on Student Knowledge, Interests, and Perceptions of the Discipline of Planning

This article has three objectives. It first examines whether the latest version of SimCity can achieve learning objectives related to systems thinking, problem solving, creativity, and regional understanding in the classroom. Second, it examines whether the game influences student interest in planning. Third, it considers whether the game impacts students’ perception of the discipline. Using instructor observation, students’ game creations, and surveys, we find that the game can achieve the aforementioned learning objectives, increase student interest, and increase the perception of planning as being creative and fun. The results have implications for instruction, student recruitment, and perceptions of the field.