Victoria Serra-Sastre

Information and diffusion of new prescription drugs

This article examines the role of different product information flows on the diffusion of new pharmaceuticals. Given the innovative nature of pharmaceutical drugs and their impact on health care expenditure there is a surprisingly small literature devoted to this topic. Some information flow mechanisms have been examined individually in the literature, but very few have captured the simultaneous impact of these mechanisms on up-take and diffusion. This article uses the up-take of statins as an example. Diffusion of this therapeutical group is expressed as a function of four specific informational channels: self-experience, consumption externalities, scientific evidence and marketing. In addition to this, the influence of economic factors is tested to examine whether they have any role in drug diffusion. Prescription data from over 130 General Practitioners (GP) practices in the UK during 1991–2004 are used to test the econometric specification applying dynamic panel data methods. Results suggest individual self-experience and clinical evidence are major factors promoting diffusion, while there is an inverse relationship with GP practice size and diffusion. Having controlled for these factors financial incentives and marketing appear to play little role.

Multi-arm Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) comparing different durations of adjuvant trastuzumab in early breast cancer, from the English NHS payer perspective

Background Trastuzumab improves survival in HER2+ breast cancer patients, with some evidence of adverse cardiac side effects. Current recommendations are to give adjuvant trastuzumab for one year or until recurrence, although trastuzumab treatment for only 9 or 10 weeks has shown similar survival rates to 12-month treatment. We present here a multi-arm joint analysis examining the relative cost-effectiveness of different durations of adjuvant trastuzumab. Methods and findings Network meta-analysis (NMA) was used to examine which trials’ data to include in the cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). A network using FinHer (9 weeks vs. zero) and BCIRG006 (12 months vs. zero) trials offered the only jointly randomisable network so these trials were used in the CEA. The 3-arm CEA compared costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with zero, 9-week and 12-month adjuvant trastuzumab durations in early breast cancer, using a decision tree followed by a Markov model that extrapolated the results to a lifetime time horizon. Pairwise incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were also calculated for each pair of regimens and used in budget impact analysis, and the Bucher method was used to check face validity of the findings. Addition of the PHARE trial (6 months vs. 12 months) to the network, in order to create a 4-arm CEA including the 6-month regimen, was not possible as late randomisation in this trial resulted in recruitment of a different patient population as evidenced by the NMA findings. The CEA results suggest that 9 weeks’ trastuzumab is cost-saving and leads to more QALYs than 12 months’, i.e. the former dominates the latter. The cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier (CEAF) favours zero trastuzumab at willingness-to-pay levels below £2,500/QALY and treatment for 9 weeks above this threshold. The combination of the NMA and Bucher investigations suggests that the 9-week duration is as efficacious as the 12-month duration for distant-disease-free survival and overall survival, and safer in terms of fewer adverse cardiac events. Conclusions Our CEA results suggest that 9-week trastuzumab dominates 12-month trastuzumab in cost-effectiveness terms at conventional thresholds of willingness to pay for a QALY, and the 9-week regimen is also suggested to be as clinically effective as the 12-month regimen according to the NMA and Bucher analyses. This finding agrees with the results of the E2198 head-to-head study that compared 10 weeks’ with 14 months’ trastuzumab and found no significant difference. Appropriate trial design and reporting is critical if results are to be synthesisable with existing evidence, as selection bias can lead to recruitment of a different patient population from existing trials. Our analysis was not based on head-to-head trials’ data, so the results should be viewed with caution. Short-duration trials would benefit from recruiting larger numbers of participants to reduce uncertainty in the synthesised results.

The suitability of a DRG casemix system in the Maltese hospital setting

The healthcare system in Malta is financed through global budgets and healthcare is provided free at the point of use. This paper is a first attempt to examine the feasibility of introducing a Diagnosis Related Groups casemix system for Malta, not necessarily for payment and funding purposes, but as a tool to help describe, manage and measure resource use. This is particularly challenging in view of the constraints and characteristics of a small state country. The study evaluates the applicability of the MS-DRG (Version 27.0) Grouper to describe acute hospital activity on the island. The classification of 151,615 admissions between 2009-2011 resulted in 636 DRG categories. Around half of these DRGs accounted for 99% of the total activity at the hospital, while 296 DRG categories had fewer than 15 cases over the period. Patient length of stay is used to explain resource use and the Coefficient of Multiple Determination obtained was of 0.19 (improving to 0.25 when a number of trimming algorithms were applied). A good proportion of the resulting DRGs had a Coefficient of Variation, which indicates a low degree of variability within the obtained DRG groups. This presents good evidence to support the introduction of a DRG system in Malta particularly in view of the recent drive towards more public-private partnerships and legislation on cross-border patient treatment.

Technology diffusion and substitution of medical innovations.

PURPOSE The aim of this paper is to examine the diffusion of a new surgical procedure with lower per-case cost and how its diffusion path is affected by the simultaneous introduction of a new drug class that may be an effective treatment to prevent surgery. In particular, we examine whether a process of technology substitution exists that influences the diffusion process of the surgical technology. Given their different cost implications, the interaction of these two different technologies, surgery and drug intervention, is relevant from the perspective of health expenditure. This is of particular interest in health care as technology adoption and diffusion has been cited as a major driver of expenditure growth. Such expenditure growth has been increasingly targeted through the use of market-orientated policy tools aimed at increasing efficiency. Our research is thus addressing the question of how economic incentives influence the diffusion process and we discuss the impact of a set of incentives on hospital behavior. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY Hospital admission data for the financial years 1998/1999 to 2007/2008 in England are used to empirically test the contribution of prescription uptake and market-oriented reforms. Dynamic panel data models are used to capture any changes in technology preference during the period of study. FINDINGS Our results suggest that the hospital sector exhibits a strong new technology preference, tempered by the interaction of competition for patients and the ability of the primary care sector to substitute treatments. VALUE/ORIGINALITY Given the current fast technological change, we examine the technological race occurring in the health care sector. We account simultaneously for the diffusion of different technologies not only within the same typology but also with technologies of a different class.