Ville Brummer

Foresight for European coordination: developing national priorities for the Forest-Based Sector Technology Platform

We explore what implications the geographical dispersion of foresight participants and their regional idiosyncrasies have for the management of foresight processes. Specifically, we argue that these kinds of multi-stakeholder processes place demands such as scalability, modularity and dependability on the design and deployment of foresight methodologies. We also report a Finnish foresight process to support the development of the Strategic Research Agenda (SRA) of the European Forest-Based Sector Technology Platform. This process was based on the RPM Screening methodology which consisted of the internet-based solicitation and assessment of research themes, identification of promising research themes through Robust Portfolio Modelling (RPM),1 and several facilitated workshops.

Axes of balance in foresight - reflections from FinnSight 2015

In 2005, the Finnish Government took a decision in principle on the structural development of the public research system. This decision spurred the two main funding agencies – the Academy of Finland and the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation (Tekes) – to carry out FinnSight 2015, a joint foresight exercise that would provide inputs to this strategy, foster collaboration between these funding agencies and promote foresight and innovation activities at large. Towards these objectives, FinnSight 2015 engaged 10 expert panels which identified key driving forces and characterised focus areas of competences by making extensive use of Internet-based tools and by engaging in intensive deliberations at facilitated workshops. We also describe the policy context and methodological support of FinnSight: specifically, we report how challenges arising from the tight schedule were addressed through the process design and what policy developments have taken place after to the publication of foresight results, in the belief that our analysis may be instructive for the planning of large-scale foresight exercises that need to serve high-level policy objectives subject to demanding time constraints and expectations.

A methodology for the identification of prospective collaboration networks in international R&D programmes

The planning of publicly funded research and development programmes can benefit from participatory foresight processes where research issues are evaluated with regard to multiple criteria. However, few approaches have been developed for the shaping of collaborative research networks through which the resulting priorities are implemented. We therefore develop a methodology for the joint shaping of thematic priorities and prospective collaborative networks. Our methodology helps identify networks that are aligned with the thematic priorities and consist of research groups with shared interests. The proposed PRM-Networking approach is demonstrated with a case study on the planning of a multi-national research programme.

Developing National Priorities for the Forest-Based Sector Technology Platform

Although foresight has become increasingly relevant at the international level, little methodological attention has been given to the challenges that arise from the geographical dispersion of participants or the consideration of their national and regional idiosyncrasies.This paper addresses these challenges in connection with coordination tools for the ‘Open Method of Coordination’ - most notably ERA-NETs and European Technology Platforms - which are facilitated by the European Commission with the aim of contributing to the establishment of the European Research Area (ERA). Specifically, it is argued that the successful management of these tools calls for multi-stakeholder processes which pose demands such as scalability, modularity and dependability on the design and deployment of foresight methodologies.The authors report experiences from a recent foresight process that was conducted in Finland to support the development of the Strategic Research Agenda (SRA) of the Forest-Based Sector Technology Platform. The encouraging results from this process and the broader potential of internet-based decision support systems are discussed in view of European coordination tools.

Identification of Prospective Collaboration Networks in International R&D Programmes

Ville Brummer- Research Fellow, Systems Analysis Laboratory, Helsinki University of Technology (Finland). E-mail: ville.brummer@tkk.fi Address: Systems Analysis Laboratory, Aalto University, P.O. box 11100 00076, Aalto, FinlandJuuso Liesio- Research Fellow, Systems Analysis Laboratory, Helsinki University of Technology (Finland). E-mail: juuso.liesio@tkk.fi Address: Systems Analysis Laboratory, Aalto University, P.O. box 11100 00076, Aalto, FinlandJuuso Nissinen- Financial Analyst, Depfa Bank Plc. (Finland). E-mail: juuso.nissinen@depfa.com Address: Systems Analysis Laboratory, Aalto University, P.O. box 11100 00076, Aalto, FinlandAhti Salo- Professor, Systems Analysis Laboratory, Helsinki University of Technology (Finland). E-mail: ahti.salo@tkk.fi Address: Systems Analysis Laboratory, Aalto University, P.O. box 11100 00076, Aalto, FinlandInternational partnership plays an increasingly important role in the performance of innovation systems. Despite the consensus on the benefits of international cooperation and the adoption of a number of influential policies, systemic ways of joint identification of the thematic priorities and collaborative networks and activities in R&D programmes are underdeveloped. At the global level, the formation of policy is complicated by the need to account for numerous horizontal and vertical linkages, both within as well as between innovation systems. As the number of prospective stakeholder groups grows, the diversity of the objectives and strategies that they pursue grows too, implying that it becomes increasingly difficult to synchronize them.Aiming to close the gap authors developed a methodology for robust portfolio modeling of networks (RPM-Networking) that allows identifying the thematic priorities and shaping long-term collaborative networks within national and international programmes. The basic criterion for evaluating potential networks is their viability. The proposed approach is based on portfolio analysis - robust portfolio modeling (RPM) - which allows taking into account resource-related and other constraints when identifying thematic priorities for R&D and shaping related networks. Building collaborative networks should be consistent with the definition of thematic priorities. RPM-Networking allows synthesizing these processes.Methodologically RPM-Networking presumes an integral estimate of thematic priorities and collaborative networks thus facilitating the identification of thematic priorities and the establishment of new networks basing on multi-criteria analysis of research topics to evaluate the degree of interest of potential participants.The paper considers the capacities of the method as exemplified by the processing of the data set derived from joint consultations under the project WoodWisdom-Net. It covers 18 partners from eight countries and seeks to advance networking and integration of national programmes in wood material science and engineering. Experience of applying the methodology has proved its effectiveness and viability.The authors conclude that the creation of new collaborative research networks should be central to the establishment of international programs where networking is hindered by a wide variety of cultural characteristics and organizational practices. In addition applying a systemic methodology allows achieving other desired parameters such as enhanced governance, determining the exact amount of funding for projects, thus reducing the risks, and identifying the target group of scientists which are interested in related topics in terms of complementarities and interdisciplinary approaches. Further it is possible to optimally implement the results of Foresight in practice. In particular it appears that the successful mobilization of the scientific community, submission of a quite wide range of topics for evaluation and their high scores are critical prerequisites for successful application of RPM-Networking.

FinnSight 2015 – A Foresight Exercise for the Shaping of National Strategies

The paper describes FinnSight 2015, the national foresight exercise of the Academy of Finland and the National Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation (Tekes), which was launched largely with the aim of informing - albeit indirectly - the development of the national strategy which is currently being implemented by establishing five Strategic Centers of Excellence in Science, and Technology. The authors analyze the policy context, management structures, methodological execution and key results of FinnSight. They also report some of the subsequent policy developments, and examine FinnSight in view of four axes of balance that are arguably helpful in the planning of foresight exercises. The methodological novelties of FinnSight are highlighted, particularly as concerns the combination of distributed work by individual panelists (which was assisted through Internet-based tools) and their interactive collaboration in group settings (which took place in facilitated workshops).