Vin Morgan

Natural and anthropogenic changes in atmospheric CO2 over the last 1000 years from air in Antarctic ice and firn

A record of atmospheric CO2 mixing ratios from 1006 A.D. to 1978 A.D. has been produced by analysing the air enclosed in three ice cores from Law Dome, Antarctica. The enclosed air has unparalleled age resolution and extends into recent decades, because of the high rate of snow accumulation at the ice core sites. The CO2 data overlap with the record from direct atmospheric measurements for up to 20 years. The effects of diffusion in the firn on the CO2 mixing ratio and age of the ice core air were determined by analyzing air sampled from the surface down to the bubble close-off depth. The uncertainty of the ice core CO2 mixing ratios is 1.2 ppm (1 σ). Preindustrial CO2 mixing ratios were in the range 275–284 ppm, with the lower levels during 1550–1800 A.D., probably as a result of colder global climate. Natural CO2 variations of this magnitude make it inappropriate to refer to a single preindustrial CO2 level. Major CO2 growth occurred over the industrial period except during 1935–1945 A.D. when CO2 mixing ratios stabilized or decreased slightly, probably as a result of natural variations of the carbon cycle on a decadal timescale.

A Review of Antarctic Surface Snow Isotopic Composition: Observations, Atmospheric Circulation, and Isotopic Modeling*

A database of surface Antarctic snow isotopic composition is constructed using available measurements, with an estimate of data quality and local variability. Although more than 1000 locations are documented, the spatial coverage remains uneven with a majority of sites located in specific areas of East Antarctica. The database is used to analyze the spatial variations in snow isotopic composition with respect to geographical characteristics (elevation, distance to the coast) and climatic features (temperature, accumulation) and with a focus on deuterium excess. The capacity of theoretical isotopic, regional, and general circulation atmospheric models (including “isotopic” models) to reproduce the observed features and assess the role of moisture advection in spatial deuterium excess fluctuations is analyzed.

Site information and initial results from deep ice drilling on Law Dome, Antarctica

The aim of deep ice drilling on Law Dome, Antarctica, has been to exploit the special characteristics of Law Dome summit, i.e. low temperature and high accumulation near an ice divide, to obtain a high-resolution ice core for climatic/ environmental studies of the Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Drilling was completed in February 1993, when basal ice containing small fragments of rock was reached at a depth of 1196 m. Accurate ice dating, obtained by counting annual layers revealed by fine-detail δ 18 O, peroxide and electrical-conductivity measurements, is continuous down to 399 m, corresponding to a date of AD 1304. Sulphate concentration measurements, made around depths where conductivity tracing indicates volcanic fallout, allow confirmation of the dating (for Agung in 1963 and Tambora in 1815) or estimates of the eruption date from the ice dating (for the Kuwae,Vanuatu, eruption ∼1457). The lower part of the core is dated by extrapolating the layer-counting using a simple model of the ice flow. At the LGM, ice-fabric measurements show a large decrease (250 to 14 mm 2 ) in crystal size and a narrow maximum in c-axis verticality. The main zone of strong single-pole fabrics however, is located higher up in a broad zone around 900 m. Oxygen-isotope (δ 18 O) measurements show Holocene ice down to 1113 m, the LGM at 1133 m and warm (δ 18 O about the same as Holocene) ice near the base of the ice sheet. The LGM/Holocene δ 18 O shift of 7.0‰, only ∼1‰ larger than for Vostok, indicates that Law Dome remained an independent ice cap and was not overridden by the inland ice sheet in the Glacial.

The lead pollution history of Law Dome, Antarctica, from isotopic measurements on ice cores: 1500 AD to 1989 AD

Abstract Lead isotopic compositions and Pb and Ba concentrations have been measured in ice cores from Law Dome, East Antarctica, covering the past 6500 years. ‘Natural’ background concentrations of Pb (∼0.4 pg/g) and Ba (∼1.3 pg/g) are observed until 1884 AD, after which increased Pb concentrations and lowered 206Pb/207Pb ratios indicate the influence of anthropogenic Pb. The isotopic composition of ‘natural’ Pb varies within the range 206Pb/207Pb=1.20–1.25 and 208Pb/207Pb=2.46–2.50, with an average rock and soil dust Pb contribution of 8–12%. A major pollution event is observed at Law Dome between 1884 and 1908 AD, elevating the Pb concentration four-fold and changing 206Pb/207Pb ratios in the ice to ∼1.12. Based on Pb isotopic systematics and Pb emission statistics, this is attributed to Pb mined at Broken Hill and smelted at Broken Hill and Port Pirie, Australia. Anthropogenic Pb inputs are at their greatest from ∼1900 to ∼1910 and from ∼1960 to ∼1980. During the 20th century, Ba concentrations are consistently higher than ‘natural’ levels and are attributed to increased dust production, suggesting the influence of climate change and/or changes in land coverage with vegetation.

Calibrating the ice core paleothermometer using seasonality

High-resolution oxygen isotope measurements on the Dome Summit South (DSS) ice core from Law Dome, Antarctica, provide a seasonal profile that is sufficiently stable and undistorted by biases in accumulation to permit comparison with measured temperature seasonality. This comparison yields an isotope-temperature relation with a gradient (dδ/dT) of 0.44±0.02‰/°C and provides a new method for exploring the isotope-temperature relationship at high-accumulation sites. If applied to the observed isotope record from the DSS core, which extends through the last glacial and beyond, this calibration suggests that at its coldest the last glaciation was ∼13°C colder than present at this site (after correcting for elevation change). This finding compares with a temperature difference of ∼8°C computed by using the local spatially derived calibration.

High-precision dating of volcanic events (A.D. 1301–1995) using ice cores from Law Dome, Antarctica

A record of volcanic activity over the period A.D. 1301–1995 has been extracted from three Law Dome ice cores (East Antarctica). The record dating is unambiguous at the annual level from A.D. 1807 to 1995 and has an uncertainty of ±1 year at A.D. 1301. Signals from 20 eruptions are preserved in the record, including those of two unknown eruptions with acid deposition beginning in A.D. 1810.8 and A.D. 1685.8. The beginning of the ice core signal from the A.D. 1815 Tambora eruption is observed in the austral summer of A.D. 1816/1817. The mean observed stratospheric transport and deposition time to Law Dome from the eruption site is 1.5 years (σ = 0.6 years) from 11 well-dated eruptions. The largest eruption observed in the Law Dome record has its maximum in A.D. 1460 with volcanic sulfate deposition beginning in the austral winter of A.D. 1459. This event is also observed in other ice core records and is attributed to the volcano Kuwae, with an eruption date in the range A.D. 1455.9–1459.9 if all sources of error are considered. This is at least three years later than the date previously ascribed by dendrochronological and historical studies.

A seasonal deuterium excess signal at Law Dome, coastal eastern Antarctica: A southern ocean signature

The snow isotopic composition (δ18O and δD) of two shallow cores from the high accumulation summit region of Law Dome, east Antarctica, was measured at monthly resolution over the 1980–1992 period. While the δ18O or δD signals clearly reflect the local temperature cycle, the deuterium excess (d = δD - 8δ18O) is shifted with respect to δ18O cycle by a 4 months lag. Interpretation of this phase lag is investigated using both an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM), which includes the water isotopic cycles, and a simple isotopic model, which better describes the microphysical processes within the cloud. Using this dual approach, we show that the seasonality of δ18O and d at Law Dome summit results from a combination of the southern ocean temperature cycle (shifted by 2–3 months with respect to the local insolation) and seasonal moisture origin changes due to a strong contribution of the local ocean when ice free. Both approaches are consistent with a dominant temperate to subtropical moisture origin. We thus demonstrate from our present-day subseasonal study that the record of d in the Dome Summit South (DSS) deep ice core represents a potential tool for identifying changes in Southern Ocean temperatures and/or sea ice cover at the scale of the past thousand years.

Deglacial and Holocene changes in accumulation at Law Dome, East Antarctica

Abstract Dating constraints have been combined with an ice-flow model to estimate surface accumulation rates at Law Dome, East Antarctica, to approximately 80 kyr BP. Results indicate that the present high-accumulation regime (~0.7ma–1 ice equivalent) was established some time after ~7 kyr BP, following an increase of approximately 80% from early to mid-Holocene. The accumulation rate at the Last Glacial Maximum is estimated at less than ~10% of the modern value. The record reveals an approximately linear dependence between temperature (inferred from isotope ratio) and accumulation rate through the glacial period. This dependence breaks down in the early Holocene, and this is interpreted as a change to a mode in which moisture-transport changes have a stronger influence on accumulation than temperature (via absolute humidity). The changes in accumulation, including the large change in the early to mid-Holocene, are accompanied by changes in sea-salt concentrations which support the hypothesis that Law Dome climate has shifted from a glacial climate, more like that of the present-day Antarctic Plateau, to its current Antarctic maritime climate. The change between these two modes occurred progressively through the early Holocene, possibly reflecting insolation-driven changes in atmospheric moisture content and circulation.

A late medieval warm period in the Southern Ocean as a delayed response to external forcing

On the basis of long simulations performed with a three-dimensional climate model, we propose an interhemispheric climate lag mechanism, involving the long-term memory of deepwater masses. Warm anomalies, formed in the North Atlantic when warm conditions prevail at surface, are transported by the deep ocean circulation towards the Southern Ocean. There, the heat is released because of large scale upwelling, maintaining warm conditions and inducing a lagged response of about 150 years compared to the Northern Hemisphere. Model results and observations covering the first half of the second millenium suggest a delay between the temperature evolution in the Northern Hemisphere and in the Southern Ocean. The mechanism described here provides a reasonable hypothesis to explain such an interhemipsheric lag.

A 700 year record of Southern Hemisphere extratropical climate variability

Abstract Annually dated ice cores from West and East Antarctica provide proxies for past changes in atmospheric circulation over Antarctica and portions of the Southern Ocean, temperature in coastal West and East Antarctica, and the frequency of South Polar penetration of El Niño events. During the period AD 1700–1850, atmospheric circulation over the Antarctic and at least portions of the Southern Hemisphere underwent a mode switch departing from the out-of-phase alternation of multi-decadal long phases of EOF1 and EOF2 modes of the 850 hPa field over the Southern Hemisphere (as defined in the recent record by Thompson and Wallace, 2000; Thompson and Solomon, 2002) that characterizes the remainder of the 700 year long record. From AD 1700 to 1850, lower-tropospheric circulation was replaced by in-phase behavior of the Amundsen Sea Low component of EOF2 and the East Antarctic High component of EOF1. During the first phase of the mode switch, both West and East Antarctic temperatures declined, potentially in response to the increased extent of sea ice surrounding both regions. At the end of the mode switch, West Antarctic coastal temperatures rose and East Antarctic coastal temperatures fell, respectively, to their second highest and lowest of the record. Polar penetration of El Niño events increased during the mode switch. The onset of the AD 1700–1850 mode switch coincides with the extreme state of the Maunder Minimum in solar variability. Late 20th-century West Antarctic coastal temperatures are the highest in the record period, and East Antarctic coastal temperatures close to the lowest. Since AD 1700, extratropical regions of the Southern Hemisphere have experienced significant climate variability coincident with changes in both solar variability and greenhouse gases.