Vincent Vicard

How Frequently Firms Export? Evidence from France

This paper proposes studying export frequency as an additional margin of international trade. While extensive margins of products and destination define the scope of firm’s export, export shipment frequency is determined by sale method choice and cost structure of the trade technology. We define export shipment frequency as the per annum number of shipments of a given product, by a firm to a given destination. In order to more deeply understand the trade cost structure and sale methods, we estimate gravity models on export frequency and other margins of trade using monthly firm-product-destination level export data from France. We show that in key predictions of the model are validated. During the recent trade collapse, we also find a great deal of stability in shipment frequency with a modest adjustment to declining GDP.

National borders matter... where one draws the lines too

The fact that crossing a political border dramatically reduces trade flows has been widely documented in the literature. The increasing number of borders has surprisingly attracted much less attention. The number of independent countries has indeed risen from 72 in 1948 to 192 today. This paper estimates the effect of political disintegration since World War II on the measured growth in world trade. We first show that trade statistics should be considered carefully when assessing globalization over time, since the definition of trade partners varies over time. We document a sizeable resulting accounting artefact, which accounts for 17% of the growth in world trade since 1948. Second, we estimate that political disintegration alone since World War II has raised measured international trade flows by 9% but decreased actual trade flows (including inter-regional trade) by 4%.

Shipment Frequency of Exporters and Demand Uncertainty

Firms adjust to differences in market size and demand uncertainty by changing the frequency and size of their export shipments. In our inventory model, transportation costs and optimal shipment frequency are determined on the basis of demand as well as inventory and per shipments costs. Using a cross section of monthly firm-product-destination level French export data we confirm that firms adjust on both margins for market size. In a stochastic setting, firms adjust to increased uncertainty by reducing their sales and, for a given export volume, by reducing their number of shipments and increasing their shipment size

French Firms Exports During Downturns: Evidence from Past Crises

This paper makes use of detailed French firm level data on a quarterly basis to investigate the impact of past crises on exports and the margins of adjustment. We first detect crises periods using quantitative criteria and classify them into banking crises, currency crises, simultaneous banking and currency crises, and other crises. Our results underline the prevalence of the intensive margin of adjustment to large shocks, i.e. firms reducing their average sales per product while staying on the market. The extensive margin of trade is however dominant in currency crises. On average, a crisis reduces the growth rate of exports over six quarters. Finally, we show that exports overreact to demand variations during crises, and that the extensive margin is more responsive to demand. Other factors, not directly related to demand, mostly affect the intensive margin.

Profit Shifting Through Transfer Pricing: Evidence from French Firm Level Trade Data

This paper provides direct evidence of profit shifting to low tax jurisdictions by multinational companies through transfer prices. Using detailed firm level export and import data by origin/destination and product for France, I show that the price wedge between arms length and related party transactions varies systematically with the differential in corporate tax rate between France and the partner country. Profit shifting through transfer prices is estimated to have reduced the French corporate tax base by 8 bn USD in 2008. Its extent is growing in France over the 2000s. The related missing tax revenues amounts to 10% of the corporate tax paid by multinational groups located in France that trade with related party.