Vincent Y.F. He

Long Term Outcomes Following Hospital Admission for Sepsis Using Relative Survival Analysis: A Prospective Cohort Study of 1,092 Patients with 5 Year Follow Up

Background Sepsis is a leading cause of death in intensive care units and is increasing in incidence. Current trials of novel therapeutic approaches for sepsis focus on 28-day mortality as the primary outcome measure, but excess mortality may extend well beyond this time period. Methods We used relative survival analysis to examine excess mortality in a cohort of 1,028 patients admitted to a tertiary referral hospital with sepsis during 2007–2008, over the first 5 years of follow up. Expected survival was estimated using the Ederer II method, using Australian life tables as the reference population. Cumulative and interval specific relative survival were estimated by age group, sex, sepsis severity and Indigenous status. Results Patients were followed for a median of 4.5 years (range 0–5.2). Of the 1028 patients, the mean age was 46.9 years, 52% were male, 228 (22.2%) had severe sepsis and 218 (21%) died during the follow up period. Mortality based on cumulative relative survival exceeded that of the reference population for the first 2 years post admission in the whole cohort and for the first 3 years in the subgroup with severe sepsis. Independent predictors of mortality over the whole follow up period were male sex, Indigenous Australian ethnicity, older age, higher Charlson Comorbidity Index, and sepsis-related organ dysfunction at presentation. Conclusions The mortality rate of patients hospitalised with sepsis exceeds that of the general population until 2 years post admission. Efforts to improve outcomes from sepsis should examine longer term outcomes than the traditional primary endpoints of 28-day and 90-day mortality.

Body mass index, obesity, and psychopathology in patients with schizophrenia.

Abstract A number of studies have reported that patients with schizophrenia have a higher body mass index (BMI) than the general population. Few Asian studies have examined BMI in patients with schizophrenia. The aims of the current study were to evaluate the distribution of BMI and prevalence of obesity in a large sample of Chinese patients with schizophrenia (n = 973) and to examine the sociodemographic and clinical correlates of overweight (BMI ≥25 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). There was a preponderance of patients who were overweight (58.7%) and obese (73.6%) as compared with control subjects. Regression modeling of clinical and symptom factors in schizophrenia patients revealed that females were almost twice as likely to be obese compared with males and patients with comorbid medical conditions were more likely to be obese compared with those who did not have a comorbid medical condition (odds ratio, 1.6). Those prescribed typical antipsychotic medications were 1.7 times more likely to be obese, whereas individuals prescribed with both typical and atypical antipsychotic medications were 2.2 times more likely to be obese as compared with those prescribed atypical antipsychotics. A significant predictor interaction for obesity was observed between sex and typical antipsychotics, sex and comorbid medical conditions, and years of education and comorbid medical conditions. The higher prevalence of obesity in patients with schizophrenia is a matter of clinical and public health concern; interventions to reduce weight to healthy levels would result in both improved health and quality of life among patients with schizophrenia.

Lifetime and twelve-month prevalence of heavy-drinking in Singapore: Results from a representative cross-sectional study

BackgroundThe study aimed to establish the prevalence of heavy drinking, evaluate correlations between heavy drinking and socio-demographic factors, physical and psychiatric conditions, and assess the impact of heavy drinking on quality of life and days of work-loss.MethodsData from a nationally-representative cross-sectional sample were used. The sample comprised 6616 community-dwelling Singaporeans & Singapore Permanent Residents. The main instruments used were the World Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview and EuroQol 5D. Heavy drinking was defined as consumption of 4 or more drinks, or 5 or more drinks in a day in women and men respectively.Results12.6% of all adult Singapore residents reported heavy drinking in the last 12 months, and 15.9% reported lifetime heavy-drinking. Strong gender, ethnic, age and income differences were seen. Heavy drinking was positively associated with major depression, the presence of any mood disorder, and with chronic pain. It was also strongly associated with alcohol dependence, alcohol abuse, and nicotine dependence. Heavy-drinkers reported lower quality of life compared to non-heavy drinkers, measured using the EuroQol 5D Visual Analogue Scale.ConclusionsSingapore has a relatively high prevalence of 12-month heavy drinking of 12.6%, and lifetime heavy drinking of 15.9%. Heavy drinking was positively associated with both physical and mental health conditions, and with declines in quality of life. Continued monitoring of heavy drinking behavior and sustained efforts to mitigate the risks associated with heavy drinking is needed.

Long-term outcomes from acute rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease: A data-linkage and survival analysis approach

Background: We investigated adverse outcomes for people with acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD) and the effect of comorbidities and demographic factors on these outcomes. Methods: Using linked data (RHD register, hospital, and mortality data) for residents of the Northern Territory of Australia, we calculated ARF recurrence rates, rates of progression from ARF to RHD to severe RHD, RHD complication rates (heart failure, endocarditis, stroke, and atrial fibrillation), and mortality rates for 572 individuals diagnosed with ARF and 1248 with RHD in 1997 to 2013 (94.9% Indigenous). Results: ARF recurrence was highest (incidence, 3.7 per 100 person-years) in the first year after the initial ARF episode, but low-level risk persisted for >10 years. Progression to RHD was also highest (incidence, 35.9) in the first year, almost 10 times higher than ARF recurrence. The median age at RHD diagnosis in Indigenous people was young, especially among males (17 years). The development of complications was highest in the first year after RHD diagnosis: heart failure incidence rate per 100 person-years, 9.09; atrial fibrillation, 4.70; endocarditis, 1.00; and stroke, 0.58. Mortality was higher among Indigenous than non-Indigenous RHD patients (hazard ratio, 6.55; 95% confidence interval, 2.45–17.51), of which 28% was explained by comorbid renal failure and hazardous alcohol use. RHD complications and mortality rates were higher for urban than for remote residents. Conclusions: This study provides important new prognostic information for ARF/RHD. The residual Indigenous survival disparity in RHD patients, which persisted after accounting for comorbidities, suggests that other factors contribute to mortality, warranting further research.

Assessing improvements in survival for stroke patients in the Northern Territory 1992-2013: a marginal structural analysis

OBJECTIVE The aim of the present study was to investigate changes in stroke survival among Indigenous and non-Indigenous patients in the Northern Territory (NT). METHODS A longitudinal study was undertaken of stroke patients admitted to NT public hospitals between 1992 and 2013. The Kaplan-Meier method and proportional hazards regression were used for survival analysis. A marginal structural model was applied to adjust for time-dependent confounders and informative censoring. RESULTS; There were 4754 stroke in-patients over the period, with 3540 new cases and 837 stroke deaths. Mean age of onset for Indigenous patients (51.7 years) was 12.3 years younger than that for non-Indigenous patients. After adjustments for confounders and loss to follow-up, in-hospital deaths were more likely among Indigenous patients (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.56; P < 0.01) and less likely among males (HR = 0.86; P < 0.05) and patients from remote areas (HR = 0.72; P < 0.01). There was a 3% decrease annually in mortality hazard from 1992 to 2013. Renal disease, cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease had deleterious effects on stroke survival. CONCLUSIONS Stroke survival has improved in the NT over the past two decades. The marginal structural models provide a powerful methodological tool that can be applied to hospital administrative data to assess changes in quality of care and the impact of interventions.

Different survival analysis methods for measuring long-term outcomes of Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australian cancer patients in the presence and absence of competing risks

BackgroundNet survival is the most common measure of cancer prognosis and has been used to study differentials in cancer survival between ethnic or racial population subgroups. However, net survival ignores competing risks of deaths and so provides incomplete prognostic information for cancer patients, and when comparing survival between populations with different all-cause mortality. Another prognosis measure, “crude probability of death”, which takes competing risk of death into account, overcomes this limitation. Similar to net survival, it can be calculated using either life tables (using Cronin-Feuer method) or cause of death data (using Fine-Gray method). The aim of this study is two-fold: (1) to compare the multivariable results produced by different survival analysis methods; and (2) to compare the Cronin-Feuer with the Fine-Gray methods, in estimating the cancer and non-cancer death probability of both Indigenous and non-Indigenous cancer patients and the Indigenous cancer disparities.MethodsCancer survival was investigated for 9,595 people (18.5% Indigenous) diagnosed with cancer in the Northern Territory of Australia between 1991 and 2009. The Cox proportional hazard model along with Poisson and Fine-Gray regression were used in the multivariable analysis. The crude probabilities of cancer and non-cancer methods were estimated in two ways: first, using cause of death data with the Fine-Gray method, and second, using life tables with the Cronin-Feuer method.ResultsMultivariable regression using the relative survival, cause-specific survival, and competing risk analysis produced similar results. In the presence of competing risks, the Cronin-Feuer method produced similar results to Fine-Gray in the estimation of cancer death probability (higher Indigenous cancer death probabilities for all cancers) and non-cancer death probabilities (higher Indigenous non-cancer death probabilities for all cancers except lung cancer and head and neck cancers). Cronin-Feuer estimated much lower non-cancer death probabilities than Fine-Gray for non-Indigenous patients with head and neck cancers and lung cancers (both smoking-related cancers).ConclusionDespite the limitations of the Cronin-Feuer method, it is a reasonable alternative to the Fine-Gray method for assessing the Indigenous survival differential in the presence of competing risks when valid and reliable subgroup-specific life tables are available and cause of death data are unavailable or unreliable.

Lifetime direct costs of stroke for indigenous patients adjusted for comorbidities.

Objective: To estimate the lifetime health costs of stroke by comorbidity and indigenous status in Australias Northern Territory (NT), where a large indigenous population resides. Methods: Incidence-based cohort study using linked hospital, primary care, and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme data to estimate lifetime direct costs for hemorrhagic stroke (HS), ischemic stroke (IS) and undetermined stroke (UND). Inverse probability-weighted survival analysis was adapted to adjust for loss to follow-up. Log-linear modeling was used to analyze the net stroke costs and marginal comorbidity costs by indigenous status. Results: Between 1992 and 2013, there were 3,733 patients admitted with stroke in the NT (74% were incident strokes, 38% indigenous, 56% male, 56% IS). In 2012/2013 Australian dollars, the estimated lifetime cost for an incident stroke in NT was

Long-Term Outcomes From Acute Rheumatic Fever and Rheumatic Heart DiseaseClinical Perspective: A Data-Linkage and Survival Analysis Approach

302,538 AUD (

Long-Term Outcomes From Acute Rheumatic Fever and Rheumatic Heart Disease

207,218 USD) per patient. The net lifetime cost per non-indigenous female HS patient aged <45 years without comorbidity (reference category) was

Long-Term Outcomes From Acute Rheumatic Fever and Rheumatic Heart DiseaseClinical Perspective

72,773 AUD (