Viorel D. Popescu

Clear‐cutting affects habitat connectivity for a forest amphibian by decreasing permeability to juvenile movements

Conservation of forest amphibians is dependent on finding the right balance between management for timber production and meeting species habitat requirements. For many pond-breeding amphibians, successful dispersal of the juvenile stage is essential for long-term population persistence. We investigated the influence of timber-harvesting practices on the movements of juvenile wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus). We used a chronosequence of stands produced by clear-cutting to evaluate how stand age affects habitat permeability to movements. We conducted experimental releases of juveniles in 2008 (n = 350) and 2009 (n = 528) in unidirectional runways in four treatments: mature forest, recent clearcut, 11-year-old, and 20-year-old regeneration. The runways were 50 x 2.5-m enclosures extending into each treatment, perpendicular to a distinct edge, with four tracking stations at 10, 20, 30, and 40 m from the edge. We recorded the number of animals reaching each tracking station, and the proportion of animals changing their direction of movement at each distance. We found that the mature forest was 3.1 and 3.7 times more permeable than the 11-year-old regeneration and the recent clearcut, respectively. Animals actively avoided open-canopy habitats and sharp edges; significantly more animals returned toward the closed-canopy forest at 0 m and 10 m in the less permeable treatments. There were no significant differences in habitat permeability between the mature forest and the 20-year-old regeneration. Our study is the first to directly assess habitat permeability to juvenile amphibian movement in relation to various forestry practices. We argue that habitat permeability at this scale is largely driven by the behavior of animals in relation to habitat disturbance and that caution needs to be used when using spatial modeling and expert-derived permeability values to assess connectivity of amphibian populations. The effects of clear-cutting on the migratory success of juvenile L. sylvaticus are long-lasting. Forestry practices that involve canopy removal and conversion of natural forest to conifer plantations may affect regional population viability by hindering successful dispersal.

Biotic impacts of energy development from shale: research priorities and knowledge gaps

11 Although shale drilling operations for oil and natural gas have increased greatly in the past decade, few studies directly quantify the impacts of shale development on plants and wildlife. We evaluate knowledge gaps related to shale development and prioritize research needs using a quantitative framework that includes spatial and tem- poral extent, mitigation difficulty, and current level of understanding. Identified threats to biota from shale development include: surface and groundwater contamination; diminished stream flow; stream siltation; habitat loss and fragmentation; localized air, noise, and light pollution; climate change; and cumulative impacts. We find the highest research priorities to be probabilistic threats (underground chemical migration; contaminant release during storage, during disposal, or from accidents; and cumulative impacts), the study of which will require major scientific coordination among researchers, industry, and government decision makers. Taken together, our research prioritization outlines a way forward to better understand how energy development affects the natural world.

Species, habitats, society: an evaluation of research supporting EU's Natura 2000 network.

The Natura 2000 network is regarded as one of the conservation success stories in the global effort to protect biodiversity. However, significant challenges remain in Natura 2000 implementation, owing to its rapid expansion, and lack of a coherent vision for its future. Scientific research is critical for identifying conservation priorities, setting management goals, and reconciling biodiversity protection and society in the complex political European landscape. Thus, there is an urgent need for a comprehensive evaluation of published Natura 2000 research to highlight prevalent research themes, disciplinary approaches, and spatial entities. We conducted a systematic review of 572 scientific articles and conference proceedings focused on Natura 2000 research, published between 1996 and 2014. We grouped these articles into ‘ecological’ and ‘social and policy’ categories. Using a novel application of network analysis of article keywords, we found that Natura 2000 research forms a cohesive small-world network, owing to the emphasis on ecological research (79% of studies, with a strong focus on spatial conservation planning), and the underrepresentation of studies addressing ‘social and policy’ issues (typically focused on environmental impact assessment, multi-level governance, agri-environment policy, and ecosystem services valuation). ‘Ecological’ and ‘social and policy’ research shared only general concepts (e.g., Natura 2000, Habitats Directive) suggesting a disconnection between these disciplines. The UK and the Mediterranean basin countries dominated Natura 2000 research, and there was a weak correlation between number of studies and proportion of national territory protected. Approximately 40% of ‘social and policy’ research and 26% of ‘ecological’ studies highlighted negative implications of Natura 2000, while 21% of studies found positive social and biodiversity effects. We emphasize the need for designing inter- and transdisciplinary research in order to promote a social-ecological understanding of Natura 2000, and advance EU conservation policies.

The potential of large carnivores as conservation surrogates in the Romanian Carpathians

Conservation shortcuts such as umbrella species have been long used for regional protection of species whose distributions are poorly known. Although the European large carnivores—brown bear, gray wolf, and Eurasian lynx—might seem to be robust candidates as umbrella species, their actual effectiveness has been challenged. We used 10-km resolution distribution maps of mammals (nxa0=xa010) and birds (nxa0=xa055) of European conservation concern in the Romanian Carpathians, and a temporal sequence of land cover maps (1990, 2000, and 2006) to examine: (1) the spatial overlap in distribution between large carnivores and bird and mammal species of conservation concern, (2) changes in forest cover for the Romanian Carpathians during the post-communist period in relation to the distribution of species, and (3) priority conservation areas using carnivores as umbrella species. Approximately 55% of the bird and 80% of mammals species included in this study would potentially benefit from using large carnivores as conservation surrogates. The changes in forest cover during 1990–2006 were concentrated in the Eastern Carpathians, where up to 45% of the forest per mapping unit was clearcut during the study period. Implicitly, the areas of occupancy of the background species were most disturbed by clearcutting in the Eastern Carpathians. We propose that the large carnivores could act temporary as umbrella species in areas that are still relatively undisturbed, such as Southern and Southwestern Carpathians. This alternative conservation strategy will allow time for (1) the new established protected areas to start efficiently and (2) the forestry practices to switch from mostly uncontrolled clearcutting, lacking landscape scale management to ecologically-based practices.

Habitat selection and movement ecology of eastern Hermann’s tortoises in a rural Romanian landscape

Understanding wildlife movements and habitat selection are critical to drafting conservation and management plans. We studied a population of eastern Hermann’s tortoise (Testudo hermanni boettgeri) in a traditionally managed rural landscape in Romania, near the northern edge of the species geographic distribution. We used telemetry to radio-track 24 individuals between 2005 and 2008 and performed a Euclidian distance-based habitat selection analysis to investigate habitats preferred by tortoises at both landscapes (second-order order selection) and individual (third-order selection) home range scales. The home range size for tortoises in our study area was 3.79u2009±u20090.62xa0ha and did not differ by gender or season (pre- and post-nesting seasons). Their movement ecology was characterized by short-distance movements (daily meanu2009=u200931.18u2009±u20091.59xa0m), apparently unaffected by habitat type. In contrast to other studies, movements of males and females were of similar magnitude. At the landscape (population home range) scale, grasslands and shrubs were preferred, but tortoises also showed affinity to forest edges. At the individual home range scale, tortoises selected grassland and shrub habitats, avoided forests, and used forest edges randomly. Creeks were avoided at both spatial scales. Our results suggest that tortoise home ranges contain well-defined associations of habitats despite a higher selection for grasslands. As such, avoiding land conversion to other uses and maintaining habitat heterogeneity through traditional practices (e.g., manual mowing of grasslands, livestock grazing) are critical for the persistence of tortoise populations.

Moving into protected areas? Setting conservation priorities for Romanian reptiles and amphibians at risk from climate change.

Rapid climate change represents one of the top threats to biodiversity, causing declines and extinctions of many species. Range shifts are a key response, but in many cases are incompatible with the current extent of protected areas. In this study we used ensemble species distribution models to identify range changes for 21 reptile and 16 amphibian species in Romania for the 2020s and 2050s time horizons under three emission scenarios (A1B = integrated world, rapid economic growth, A2A = divided world, rapid economic growth [realistic scenario], B2A = regional development, environmentally-friendly scenario) and no- and limited-dispersal assumptions. We then used irreplaceability analysis to test the efficacy of the Natura 2000 network to meet conservation targets. Under all scenarios and time horizons, 90% of the species suffered range contractions (greatest loses under scenarios B2A for 2020s, and A1B for 2050s), and four reptile species expanded their ranges. Two reptile and two amphibian species are predicted to completely lose climate space by 2050s. Currently, 35 species do not meet conservation targets (>40% representation in protected areas), but the target is predicted to be met for 4 - 14 species under future climate conditions, with higher representation under the limited-dispersal scenario. The Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions have the highest irreplaceability value, and act as climate refugia for many reptiles and amphibians. The Natura 2000 network performs better for achieving herpetofauna conservation goals in the future, owing to the interaction between drastic range contractions, and range shifts towards existing protected areas. Thus, conservation actions for herpetofauna in Romania need to focus on: (1) building institutional capacity of protected areas in the Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions, and (2) facilitating natural range shifts by improving the conservation status of herpetofauna outside protected areas, specifically in traditionally-managed landscapes and abandoned cropland.

Relative performance of ecological niche and occupancy models for predicting invasions by patchily-distributed species.

Ecological niche models (ENM) have been used with mixed success for predicting the geographic extent of non-native species to aid management and conservation. This approach is problematic for predicting invasions of patchily-distributed species (e.g., pond-breeding amphibians), whose occurrence is often determined by local habitat conditions. Here, we tested the performance of bioclimatic ENM for predicting occurrence (from repeated surveys) of two non-native pond-breeding anurans at 71 wetlands in British Columbia, Canada: permanent pond specialist American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus), and generalist green frog (Lithobates clamitans). For L. catesbeianus, we assessed the risk of invasion beyond the invasion front. We found higher correlation between ENM and occupancy predictions for L. clamitans (rsxa0=xa00.58), than for L. catesbeianus (rsxa0=xa0−0.26). L. clamitans occurrence was highest at low elevations and high annual precipitation; in contrast, L. catesbeianus occupancy was predicted by wetland connectivity and distance from a historic introduction site [low at isolated ponds >50xa0km from the introduction site, and high (>0.8) at all ponds with >10xa0% water within 500xa0m]. Conditional on successful dispersal, four sites beyond the L. catesbeianus invasion front surveyed in this study were at high risk of invasion due to high habitat suitability (proportion of area occupiedxa0=xa00.33; 0.04–0.83, 95xa0% CI). In conclusion, ENMs may be useful for informing invasion management for climate driven wetland species, but repeated sampling is necessary to predict invasions for habitat-driven wetland species.

Use of Olfactory Cues by Newly Metamorphosed Wood Frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) during Emigration

Juvenile amphibians are capable of long-distance upland movements, yet cues used for orientation during upland movements are poorly understood. We used newly metamorphosed Wood Frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) to investigate: (1) the existence of innate (i.e., inherited) directionality, and (2) the use of olfactory cues, specifically forested wetland and natal pond cues during emigration. In a circular arena experiment, animals with assumed innate directionality did not orient in the expected direction (suggested by previous studies) when deprived of visual and olfactory cues. This suggests that juvenile Wood Frogs most likely rely on proximate cues for orientation. Animals reared in semi-natural conditions (1500 l cattle tanks) showed a strong avoidance of forested wetland cues in two different experimental settings, although they had not been previously exposed to such cues. This finding is contrary to known habitat use by adult Wood Frogs during summer. Juvenile Wood Frogs were indifferent to the chemical signature of natal pond (cattle tank) water. Our findings suggest that management strategies for forest amphibians should consider key habitat features that potentially influence the orientation of juveniles during emigration movements, as well as adult behavior.

Modeling road mortality hotspots of Eastern Hermann's tortoise in Romania

Road-associated mortality can lead to local declines of wildlife populations, and management agencies are actively implementing mitigation measures, especially focused on potential road mortality hotspots. In this study we used a spatially-explicit simulation modeling approach to estimate the hotspots of road mortality for the Eastern Hermanns tortoise (Testudo hermanni boettgeri) within its distribution range in Romania. Using a field experiment, we first evaluated velocities while crossing roads. Adult male tortoises moved faster than females (3.98 m/min vs. 2.51 m/min) which led to higher individual probabilities for females being killed on high-traffic roads (0.61 for females vs. 0.44 for males at traffic levels of 7000 vehicles/day). Both males and females had similar road mortality probabilities for traffic levels 35 000 vehicles/day. Our spatially explicit model suggests that, within the entire Romanian distributional range, the tortoises have an overall risk of road mortality 1.6%, which may have a negative impact on tortoise populations. Using the Getis-Ord Gi statistic, we identified road mortality hotspots with mortality rates of 5-30%, in areas bisected by high-traffic national and European-level roads. Our research is timely in that many low-traffic roads are predicted to have increased traffic associated with tourism activities, thus increasing the overall risk of mortality. We suggest that mitigation measures such as signage and roadside fences associated with underpasses have the potential to limit road mortality of this threatened species within predicted current mortality hotspots.

Navigating protected areas networks for improving diffusion of conservation practices

The Natura 2000 protected area network is the cornerstone of European Unions biodiversity conservation strategy. These protected areas range across multiple biogeographic regions, and they include a diversity of species assemblages along with a diversity of managing organizations, altogether making difficult to pool relevant sites to facilitate the flow of knowledge significant to their management. Here we introduce an approach to navigating protected area networks that has the potential to foster systematic identification of key sites for facilitating the exchange of knowledge and diffusion of information within the network. To demonstrate our approach, we abstractly represented Romanian Natura 2000 network as a co-occurrence network, with individual sites as nodes and shared species as edges, further combining into our analysis network topology, community detection, and network reduction methods. We identified most representative Natura 2000 sites that may increase the transfer of information within the national network of protected areas, detected clusters of sites and key sites for maintaining network cohesiveness, and highlighted the subsample of sites that retain the characteristics of the entire network. Our analysis provides implications for protected area prioritization by proposing a network perspective approach to collaboration rooted in ecological principles.